January 26, 2026, U.S. equities traded in a tight range near record highs, as investors remained on edge ahead of the Federal Reserve’s first policy meeting of the new year. Risk sentiment is being squeezed from both sides by the continued resilience of the labor market and the stickiness of inflation. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index hovered with only modest fluctuations, reflecting institutional caution as markets wait for major macro signals to crystallize. The key macro shock this round came from a sharp deterioration in geopolitical trade relations over the weekend. The U.S. government issued an exceptionally aggressive threat of 100% full tariffs on Canada via social media, directly responding to recent trade engagement between the Canadian Prime Minister and China. Driven by a surge in safe-haven demand and fluctuations in real yields, gold not only sustained last week’s powerful rally but decisively broke above the historic $5,000 per ounce milestone, surging to a peak near $5,050.
Asset Performance and Fundamental Analysis
1. U.S. Equity Markets
Index Performance
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: Around 49,120 (+0.09%). Following last week’s post-Davos rebound, the Dow has entered a phase of tight consolidation at elevated levels.
- S&P 500: Around 6,892. While the energy sector continues to gain support from geopolitical tensions, broader sentiment remains capped by “Super Week” macro uncertainty.
- Nasdaq Composite: Around 25,608. Tech stocks showed mixed performance. Despite structural support from AI-driven computing demand, high-valuation segments remain vulnerable to profit-taking as the 10-year Treasury yield ticks higher.
Stock Highlights
- Intel (INTC): Around $45.08 (-17.02%). Shares plunged more than 17% in a single session after the CEO acknowledged persistent manufacturing yield issues and ongoing supply constraints. Combined with widening losses in its foundry business, investor confidence collapsed, triggering panic selling. The stock is now retesting the $42–45 key support zone.
2. Foreign Exchange Market
- U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): Around 97.20. The dollar found support near 98.60 and staged a mild rebound. Markets are closely watching Chair Powell’s guidance this week on the pace of rate cuts in 2026.
- EUR/USD: Around 1.1855. The pair remains capped by dovish rhetoric from ECB officials, alongside lingering concerns over long-term trade protectionism between Europe and the U.S.
- USD/JPY: Around 154.80. As risk sentiment stabilized ahead of the U.S. equity open, safe-haven demand for the yen softened.
3. Precious Metals & Commodities
Precious Metals
- Spot Gold (XAUUSD): Broke decisively above the historic $5,000/oz level, reaching highs near $5,050.
- Spot Silver (XAGUSD): Around $106. Silver has firmly held above the $100 mark, supported by both industrial supply tightness and rising risk-aversion. Former resistance has now flipped into strong support.
Commodities
- WTI Crude Oil: Around $61.20 per barrel. Prices continue to probe the $60 level amid downward revisions to global demand forecasts, with weak balance maintained by expectations of energy cooperation.
4. Crypto Assets & Macro Developments
- Bitcoin (BTC): Around $86,665. Having slipped below the $90,000 level, BTC is now searching for support near $85,000.
- Ethereum (ETH): Around $2,830. Fell below the key $3,000 threshold and remains relatively weak.
5. Today’s Focus
- Germany: January Ifo Business Climate Index
- U.S.: December Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)
- U.S.: December Durable Goods Orders (MoM)
