Amillex Daily Market Review | Dollar Strength Triggers Long Liquidation — Can Geopolitical Risks Support Gold?

March 4, 2026 — Global financial markets were hit by sharp volatility as multiple macro forces collided. On Tuesday, spot gold came under heavy selling pressure, dropping more than 4% intraday to trade near $5,123 per ounce. Expectations for the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut have now been pushed back from July to September. As the rate-cut outlook softens, investors have shifted toward a “cash is king” stance amid extreme volatility, temporarily weakening gold’s short-term appeal. Although prolonged tensions in the Middle East continue to raise longer-term inflation concerns, tighter liquidity conditions have made it difficult for gold to sustain its previous one-way rally. Gold futures closed down 3.5%, reflecting defensive repositioning at elevated levels. Asset Performance & Fundamental Overview 1. U.S. Equity Market Index Performance Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI):48,501.27, down over 400 points (-0.83%). S&P 500 (SP500):6,807.07, up slightly by 0.02%. The index traded in a tight range, with bulls and bears battling around the 6,800 level. Nasdaq 100 (NQ1):24,720.00, down 0.14%. Growth and tech stocks have lost momentum after the recent rally, as markets reassess uncertainty around the rate path. Stock Focus Tesla (TSLA):$392.43, down 2.70%. As a bellwether growth stock, Tesla’s pullback weighed on the Nasdaq, driven by concerns over slowing downstream demand growth and margin pressure. 2. Foreign Exchange Market U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): 99.178, up 0.11%. The dollar remains resilient above the 99 level, supported by renewed safe-haven flows amid global growth uncertainty. EUR/USD: 1.15943, down 0.16%. Weak growth momentum in the Eurozone and a still-wide U.S.-EU rate differential continue to limit the euro’s rebound potential. USD/JPY: 157.613, down 0.05%. The yen is showing some resistance near the 158 level, with markets closely watching the Bank of Japan’s stance on inflation expectations. 3. Precious Metals & Commodities Precious Metals Spot Gold (XAUUSD): $5,133.88 per ounce. Despite recent volatility, gold remains firm above the $5,100 level, supported by safe-haven demand and ongoing central bank purchases, making it a key macro hedge asset. Spot Silver (XAGUSD): $83.1026 per ounce. Silver continues to show higher volatility than gold, driven by its dual role as both an industrial and safe-haven asset. Commodities Crude Oil (XTIUSD): $75.06 per barrel, up 0.20%. Oil prices are finding technical support near $75, backed by geopolitical risk and expectations of tight supply conditions. 4. Crypto Assets & Macro Developments Bitcoin (BTCUSD): $68,028, down 0.45%. BTC remains in consolidation below the $70,000 mark, with limited liquidity premium preventing it from rallying in tandem with gold. Ethereum (ETHUSD): $1,966.80, down 0.82%. ETH continues to underperform the broader crypto market, reflecting insufficient on-chain activity and application-layer innovation to support a breakout move. 5. Today’s Focus Switzerland: February CPI (MoM) United States: February ADP Employment Change United States: February ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Canada: Speech by Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem