March 3, 2026 — Global risk aversion reignited as escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran once again unsettled markets. Following U.S.–Israeli military strikes on Iran and the reported expansion of conflict into Lebanon, spot gold displayed strong upside momentum during Monday’s session, surging more than 2% at one point to approach the $5,420 level.
Although profit-taking from long positions later pushed prices back below $5,340, gold ultimately settled at $5,297.31. It is currently stabilizing near $5,336, holding at elevated levels as geopolitical supply disruption concerns continue to weigh heavily on market sentiment. This structural supply tightness, combined with sustained institutional safe-haven buying, has reinforced bullish momentum. Against the backdrop of a 23% year-to-date gain, gold continues to demonstrate strong upward traction.
Asset Performance and Fundamental Analysis
1. U.S. Equity Market
Index Performance
- Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): 48,904.78, down 0.15%
The index traded in a narrow range below the 49,000 level, reflecting caution amid rising macroeconomic uncertainty. - S&P 500 (SPX): 6,862.13, down 0.21%
Market positioning is gradually tilting toward defensive sectors, with investors trimming exposure to higher-risk assets. - Nasdaq 100 (NQ1): 24,930.50, down 0.38%
Investors are reassessing valuation pressures under a prolonged higher-for-longer interest rate environment.
Stock Focus
- Tesla (TSLA): $403.32, up 0.20%. Tesla showed relative resilience despite broader index weakness.
2. Foreign Exchange Market
- U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): 98.556, up 0.01%
The dollar continues to consolidate at elevated levels. Interest rate differentials and safe-haven premiums remain supportive of its structure. - USD/JPY: 157.389, up 0.03%
The pair remains steady above the 157 level, reflecting continued dominance of yield spread pricing between the U.S. and Japan. - EUR/USD: 1.16902, up 0.02%
The euro is hovering around 1.17, struggling to break decisively against a firm dollar.
3. Precious Metals and Commodities
Precious Metals
- Spot Gold (XAU/USD): $5,361.73 per ounce, up 0.75%. Gold remains firmly bid as markets hedge against potential inflation risks and geopolitical uncertainty.
- Spot Silver (XAG/USD): $90.86 per ounce, up 1.69%. Silver is outperforming gold, suggesting increased speculative inflows.
Commodities
- WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD): $71.52 per barrel, up 0.52%. Oil prices remain supported above $70 amid expectations of potential supply-side disruptions.
4. Crypto Assets and Macro Developments
- Bitcoin (BTC/USD): $68,879, up 0.08%. After recent volatility, Bitcoin is showing signs of high-level consolidation.
- Ethereum (ETH/USD): $2,029.40, up 0.11%. Ethereum is staging a mild recovery but continues to underperform relative to gold.
5. Key Events
- Australia: Speech by RBA Governor Michele Bullock
- Japan: Remarks by BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda
- Eurozone: Preliminary February Core CPI (YoY)
- Eurozone: Preliminary February CPI (YoY)
