• The US paused Iran strikes for a second consecutive night — oil fell toward $90 and the dollar weakened; the safe-haven bid has eased but the conflict is not resolved.
• The Fed decides Wednesday and the BOE Thursday — both expected to hold; the tone on September sets the direction for the rest of the summer
Recap
Sterling got its strongest fundamental backing in weeks — the UK July PMI jumped from 49.3 to 52.1, well above the 49.8 forecast; the UK economy returned to growth in July and strengthens the BOE's case for holding rates firm or moving higher in September.
UK retail sales beat for a fifth consecutive month — +1.0% against a -0.3% forecast; UK consumer demand is proving more resilient than expected and adds further weight to the positive picture heading into Thursday's BOE decision.
The US paused Iran strikes for a second consecutive night — oil fell toward $90, the dollar's safe-haven bid eased across
G10 and sterling gained overnight; the conflict is not resolved but the mood has shifted materially.
No pairs exceeded the 0.4% cost threshold on Friday — all three primary pairs moved less than 0.15%; the week closed quietly following Thursday's oil-driven volatility.
Today
Market rates
*Daily move - against G10 rates as of 5pm BST on 24.06.26
** Indicative rates - interbank rates as of 5pm BST on 24.06.26
Our thoughts
This week is defined by the Fed on Wednesday and the BOE on Thursday — both expected to hold, but the tone on September sets the direction for August. The Iran pause has already shifted the mood overnight with oil near $90 and the dollar softer.
EURUSD
Near term — 60% conviction, we stay rangebound. The near-term trend remains rangebound with the July low and high keeping trading keeping trading withing a 1% range. The Fed on Wednesday is the key catalyst — a strong US showing reinforces the dollar's growth advantage; a miss provides relief. Iran re-escalation pushing oil back above $100 is the tail risk.
Medium term — 50% conviction, lean toward stronger dollar. The pair has traded steadily lower so far this year with the 1 year support level resisting further dollar gains. US GDP growth, lower unemployment and a higher yield than the eurozone are the dominant factors. An aggressive ECB September hike narrowing the gap is the tail risk.
What this means for you. If the euro falls to its June low, buying $250k costs approximately £1,000 more per €250k — sellers benefit by the same. If it recovers to resistance, buying $250k costs approximately £4,100 less — sellers are worse off.
GBPUSD
Near term — conflicted, no directional view. The near-term trend is mixed — sterling rallied to a July high then pulled back without establishing a new direction. The Iran pause and UK PMI beat are supporting sterling this morning, but professional traders remain positioned for sterling weakness; Thursday's BOE decision is the near-term resolution catalyst. A return to Iran hostilities is the tail risk.
Medium term — 42% conviction, no view. The medium-term trend is mixed — sterling has risen from its 2026 low but stalled before the May and June ceiling. The BOE September hike signal from Thursday is the key catalyst — a hawkish tone shifts the pair higher; a cautious tone allows it to drift lower. A hawkish Fed on Wednesday is the tail risk.
What this means for you. If sterling falls to its 2026 low, buying $250k costs approximately £3,000 more per £250k — sellers benefit by the same. If sterling recovers to May/June resistance, buying $250k costs approximately £4,400 less — sellers are worse off.
GBPEUR
Near term — 52% conviction, lean toward stronger pound. The near-term trend is mixed — sterling hit its 2026 high against the euro in mid-July then pulled back without establishing direction. Friday's UK PMI beat to 52.1 is the most recent GBP-positive input and Thursday's BOE decision is the near-term catalyst. A cautious BOE tone delivering less than the market expects is the tail risk.
Medium term — 51% conviction, lean toward stronger pound. The six-month trend is higher — the pound has been making higher peaks and higher troughs against the euro since January and that pattern remains intact. The UK yield advantage over the eurozone of around 1.6 percentage points is the dominant scorecard factor. A decisive ECB September hike closing that gap is the primary tail risk.
What this means for you. If sterling falls to the prior resistance-turned-support level, buying €250k costs approximately £2,000 more per £250k — sellers benefit by the same. If sterling reaches its 2026 high, buying €250k costs approximately £2,200 less — sellers are worse off.
BOTTOM LINE
EURUSD is the highest-conviction call this week at 60% — the US growth advantage is real and the trend is lower. The Fed on Wednesday and BOE on Thursday are the events that set the direction for August. Know your exposure before both.
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