Market drivers and catalysts
Equities: U.S. stocks rose on easing risk sentiment, Europe advanced on firmer growth signals, Hong Kong slid as tech and miners retreated.
Volatility: VIX eases as short-term stress fades, but macro calendar and rate expectations keep downside hedging in focus.
Digital assets: Crypto stabilises at lower levels; IBIT inflows contrast with selective Ethereum ETF demand.
Currencies: USD comeback at pivotal levels near 1.1800 in EURUSD. AUD surge on RBA hike and guidance.
Commodities: Gold and silver rebound; US natural gas records biggest one-day fall in 30 years.
Fixed income: US treasury yields rebound as risk sentiment steadies and on strong ISM Manufacturing.
Macro: France Flash Jan. CPI.
Macro headlines
Trump said he would roll back punitive tariffs on India in return for an agreement that Modi would stop buying Russian oil. Trump said he would cut a US levy on Indian goods to 18% from 25% and remove an extra punitive 25% duty applied in response to India’s purchases of crude from Russia.
Australia’s Reserve Bank hiked the policy rate 25 basis points Tuesday as a strong majority expected, to take the rate to 3.85%, while proving somewhat cautious on guidance for further hikes. It’s the second major developed market central bank to tighten policy rates after Japan. The Australian dollar jumped higher on the development.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI increased to 52.6 from 47.9 in January, signaling the first manufacturing expansion in 12 months. Gains were seen in new orders, production, and supplier deliveries. Price pressures remained stable. The rise may be driven by holiday reorders and tariff concerns.
Canada's Manufacturing PMI increased to 50.4 from 48.6 in January, ending an 11-month downturn. Output stabilized, staffing levels saw a slight gain despite marginal new order declines. Input inflation hit a five-month high, prompting higher output charges. Future output confidence rose to a three-month high.
In January 2026, the US Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4 from 51.8, with output growth strong despite a seventh-month decline in export orders due to tariffs. Job growth slowed, costs rose, and selling prices surged, while business confidence remained steady amid risks.
Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)
0745 – France Flash January CPI
2145 – New Zealand Q4 Employment/Wage Data
Fed speakers: Barkin (1300) & Bowman (1440)
Earnings events
Today: AMD, Merck, Pepsico, Amgen, Pfizer
Wednesday: Alphabet, Eli Lilly, AbbVie, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Uber, Qualcomm, UBS, Boston Scientific, ARM Holdings
Thursday: Amazon.com, Shell, Linde, Unilver, KKR
Friday: Toyota, Philip Morris
For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.
Equities
USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.6% to a fresh record, while the Dow gained 1.1% and the Nasdaq 100 added 0.7%. The rebound came as last week’s sharp moves in metals and cryptocurrencies cooled, allowing investors to refocus on earnings. Technology led, with Apple, Advanced Micro Devices, and Micron posting strong gains, while Alphabet and Amazon also moved higher. Oracle edged lower and Nvidia fell 2.9% on uncertainty around OpenAI-related investment plans. After the close, Palantir beat earnings expectations and rose 7%, while Disney fell 7.3% despite a beat, as investors focused on softer international park demand and near-term prelaunch costs.
Europe: European equities advanced, led by Germany, where the DAX 40 rose 1.1%. Sentiment improved on firmer manufacturing signals and easing geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, while investors positioned ahead of key earnings and the European Central Bank decision. Markets also digested discussion around Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Federal Reserve chair, with some focus on central bank independence. SAP, Siemens Energy, and Deutsche Telekom gained, while defence names lagged, with Hensoldt falling sharply after recent strong performance.
Asia: Hong Kong equities sold off, with the Hang Seng Index falling 612 points, or 2.2%, to 26,776. Technology and mining stocks led losses as investors reassessed artificial intelligence valuations and reacted to renewed volatility in metals prices. In mainland China, shares also declined on weaker economic data and softer auto sales. Zhaojin Mining dropped 9.0% alongside the metals pullback, while Sands China rose 3.6% after reporting strong Macau gaming revenue.
Volatility
Equity volatility eased further at the start of the week, with the VIX closing at 16.34 on Monday, reflecting calmer short-term risk pricing after last week’s shake-out. Ultra-short volatility measures dropped sharply, suggesting investors are less concerned about immediate shocks, even as the broader macro backdrop remains active. Central bank decisions, shifting interest-rate expectations and key US labour data keep the risk calendar busy, meaning volatility can still re-enter quickly if data surprises. Importantly, options pricing continues to reflect cautious participation rather than complacency, with investors staying invested but mindful of downside risks.
Spx expected move: options pricing implies a move of roughly ±75 points (±1.08%) into 6 February.
0dte skew check: today’s expiry shows a mild downside skew, with puts priced slightly richer than calls, indicating that near-term protection demand remains present despite lower headline volatility.
Digital assets
Digital assets remain closely tied to the broader macro narrative, particularly interest rates and liquidity conditions. Bitcoin is holding in the high-$70k range, while ether trades near the low-$2k area, reflecting a market that is stabilising but still fragile. ETF flows continue to be a key sentiment indicator: IBIT recorded solid inflows, signalling ongoing institutional engagement, while the broader Ethereum ETF complex saw net outflows despite ETHA attracting fresh capital, pointing to selective rather than broad-based risk appetite.
Away from the major coins, crypto-linked equities and miners remain volatile, underscoring that stress often shows up first in equities tied to crypto infrastructure rather than in spot prices.
- Overall, the message from crypto markets is consistent with other risk assets: exposure is being maintained, but with tighter risk control and less tolerance for negative surprises.
Fixed income
US treasuries sold off yesterday as risk sentiment rebounded strongly, and the contagion from extreme volatility in gold and especially silver prices faded. As well, the US January ISM Manufacturing survey was strong, accelerating the pressure on treasuries after its release. The benchmark US 2-year rebounded from the 3.50% area lows Monday to close up seven basis points at 3.57%, while the benchmark 10-year rose from 4.21% to 4.28%.
- Japan’s short-dated bonds are under pressure as the market prices more BoJ tightening, with the benchmark 2-year JGB yield rising over two basis points to a new cycle high of 1.29%.
- The benchmark 10-year JGB yield was slightly higher as well, if still within the recent range in late Tokyo hours at 2.26% after weak demand at an auction of 10-year JGBs.
Commodities
Gold and silver staged a strong rebound during the Asian session following Friday’s historic collapse, which extended into Monday before prices finally stabilised. In China, silver prices fell again, narrowing the premium over London to just 9%, as bruised local speculators continued to retrench, while China’s only pure-silver fund traded limit-down for a second consecutive day.
Gold has now cleared its first retracement hurdle at USD 4,858, shifting focus toward USD 5,000 — the 50% retracement of the latest slump. For silver, the equivalent levels sit higher at USD 90.58 and USD 96.52, suggesting the white metal remains on less stable footing, not least as ongoing ETF outflows continue to weigh on sentiment.
- HG Copper trades back above USD 6 following a three-day top to bottom slump of 15.5%, supported by buying from investors in China, the biggest consumer of the metal, and news the government will expand its strategic inventories of copper.
Oil prices stabilised after Monday’s decline as perceived disruption risks tied to Iran eased, with Brent holding above USD 65 — the midpoint of the current trading range. Meanwhile, natural gas futures suffered their sharpest one-day drop in three decades, plunging 26% on Monday after mid-February weather forecasts shifted markedly warmer.
This winter has been exceptionally volatile for natural gas, with prices surging to USD 7.82 during the recent winter storm before collapsing back to around USD 3.26. The violent swings once again underline why the market continues to live up to its long-standing reputation as the “widow maker.”
Currencies
The US dollar continued to rally late Monday before finding resistance late in US trading hours. EURUSD dipped all the way to 1.1776 before bouncing back to 1.1815+ by early European hours Tuesday. USDJPY peaked just shy of 155.80 late Monday, a precise 50% retracement of the recent slide from the 159.45 cycle high to recent 152.10 low. By late hours in Tokyo’s Tuesday session, the pair had retreated to below 155.50.
AUD jumped across the board on 25 basis point hike from Australia’s RBA, which indicated that further policy moves were not clear. The market was leaning about 75% in favour of the hike, with the move and perhaps stability in metals markets driving a surge of fresh interest in AUD. AUDUSD rose from Monday’s 0.6909 lows to as high as 0.7033 after the RBA decision early Tuesday.
