Market drivers and catalysts
Equities: AI headlines lifted the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, Europe edged higher on autos, Asia firmed with Hong Kong up
Volatility: VIX softens, government shutdown delays data
Digital Assets: BTC/ETH drop amid $1.3 B liquidations, ETF outflows continue, altcoins slide, CIFR bucks trend on AWS deal
Fixed Income: Treasuries gain modestly amid stock market wobbles
Currencies: Euro drops to three-month low, yen strengthens amid verbal intervention
Commodities: Gold and silver retreat as cautious Fed and stronger dollar weigh on sentiment
Macro events: US Sept Trade Balance & JOLTS Job Openings
Macro headlines
The October ISM US Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.7, below expectations, signaling eight months of contraction. Production, orders, inventories, and employment declined. Price pressures eased, but delivery slowed. Only two industries, Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products, and Transportation Equipment, expanded.
In October, the S&P Global Canada Manufacturing PMI increased to 49.6 from 47.7, marking a slight contraction—the slowest since January. Output and new orders declined less, affected by tariffs and trade issues. Employment fell slightly, with job losses easing. Input cost inflation rose, but firms increased selling prices more easily. Confidence improved but remained below trend due to trade policy uncertainties.
Australia’s RBA held its key interest rate steady – as expected – at 3.6% driven by a combination of lingering inflation pressures and a steady job market raising the bar for further easing. It expects core inflation to climb above the top of the 2-3% target through mid-2026.
Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)
US Government data are impacted by shutdowns and are likely to be delayed
1330 – US Sept Trade Balance
1500 – US Sept. JOLTS Job Openings
Earnings this week
Today: Palantir, Vertex Pharmaceuticals
Tue: AMD, Shopify, Arista, Uber, Amgen, Eaton, Pfizer, Spotify, Ferrari
Wed: Toyota, Novo Nordisk, McDonalds, AppLovin, Qualcomm, Robinhood, DoorDash
Thu: AstraZeneca, Rheinmetall
Fri: Constellation Energy, ConocoPhillips, KKR
For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.
Equities
USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.2% and the Nasdaq 0.5% as AI-capex headlines offset softer ISM manufacturing at 48.7, while the Dow fell 0.5%. Amazon gained 4% on a reported multi-year $38bn OpenAI deal running on AWS, and Nvidia added 2.2%; Microsoft slipped 0.2% despite a $9.7bn IREN AI-compute pact and plans for $7.9bn of UAE data centers. Consumer staples dragged as Kimberly-Clark tumbled 14.6% after agreeing to buy Kenvue, which jumped 12.3%. Palantir’s Q3 revenue jumped 63% and beat estimates, and it lifted its 2025 revenue outlook to $4.4bn. Shares still fell 5.8% after hours on concerns about its valuation. Focus turns to ISM services on Wednesday and Qualcomm results.
Europe: The STOXX 50 rose 0.3% and the STOXX 600 edged 0.1% higher as autos led on signs of easing China export frictions. Volkswagen advanced 2.3%, Mercedes-Benz 2.0% and BMW 1.0%, while defence outperformed with Rheinmetall up 4.2% ahead of earnings. Laggards included Ferrari, down 2.0% on broker downgrades, Campari off 2.4% amid a tax probe, and BNP Paribas down 1.6% on capital plans. UK traded broadly in line as investors stayed selective into another heavy earnings slate and the Bank of England meeting on Thursday.
Asia: Prior closes were mixed but firmer in Hong Kong. The Hang Seng rose 1.0% to 26,158 as banks and tech rallied, with AIA up 6.0%, ICBC 2.5% and Xiaomi 3.5%, helped by a US-China trade truce framework and an expected pause of US port fees from next week. Macro prints supported tone: Hong Kong GDP grew 3.8% y/y in Q3 and September retail sales volume rose 4.8% y/y. Japan’s Nikkei was flat as chip gains faded.
Volatility
Volatility eased slightly on Monday as investors adjusted to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which continues to delay key data releases such as JOLTS and may extend to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls. The VIX dipped to 17.17 (-1.6%), while short-term gauges like the VIX1D fell sharply (-27%) as the session unfolded calmly. VIX Futures stayed anchored around USD 19.9, signalling limited fear but not full complacency. Traders are focusing on upcoming ADP and ISM reports, which could influence rate expectations and sentiment into Friday’s University of Michigan confidence data.
- Expected move: options imply an SPX range of ±1.4% (≈ ±95 pts) for the week.
Skew indicator (today’s expiry): modest call-side lean, hinting that institutional hedging favours protection against upside breakouts rather than downside shocks.
Digital Assets
Crypto markets opened November under renewed pressure as risk sentiment soured and a $1.3 billion liquidation wave swept through leveraged futures. Bitcoin slipped below $105 k (-1.8%) and Ethereum fell to $3.5 k (-2.6%), marking their weakest levels since mid-October. ETF flows reflected the caution: IBIT -1.8% and ETHA -2.7%, extending yesterday’s outflows. Altcoins followed suit, with SOL -4.4%, XRP -1.5%, and ADA and MATIC each losing more than 5%.
One bright spot came from Cipher Mining (+22%), buoyed by its new AWS partnership—showing how AI and infrastructure tie-ins still attract capital even as pure-crypto assets retreat.
Overall, the sector remains data- and liquidity-sensitive, tracking shifts in Fed rhetoric and dollar strength.
Fixed Income
US treasury yields rose on Monday after Alphabet announced a jumbo $17.5bn, eight-part bond sale, including 30- and 50-year tranches before recovering after the October ISM manufacturing index came in weaker than expected with further softness seen in early trading as the S&P 500 fell. The benchmark 2-year treasury yield easing back a couple of basis points to 3.58% from a 3.61% high on Monday, while the 10-year treasury trades down two basis points to 4.08% from a 4.12% peak on Monday.
Commodities
Gold and silver trade softer as the dollar reached a three-month high after FOMC members stopped short of endorsing another rate cut next month, extending the ongoing consolidation phase. The outlook now hinges on the broader risk appetite, with near-term support potentially being tested. Governor Lisa Cook noted that the risk of further labour-market weakness outweighs that of renewed inflation but refrained from explicitly supporting another rate cut, echoing recent comments from Mary Daly and Austan Goolsbee. Market attention now turns to Wednesday’s ADP employment report, with key support for gold seen in the USD 3,845–3,850 area.
- Oil prices eased following a four-day rally as traders assessed OPEC+’s plan to pause scheduled production increases early next year against mixed supply signals. WTI and Brent traded below USD 61 and USD 65, respectively, with sentiment influenced by broader risk appetite and signs of stock-market weakness.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Index extended its gains to a fifth day after the greenback strengthened against most of the Group-of-10 currencies, trading at levels last seen in August. Supported by mixed signals from Fed officials, following Chair Jerome Powell’s warning last week that a rate cut in December isn’t a foregone conclusion.
- EUR briefly fell to a three-month low at 1.15 pressured by broad dollar strength and uninspiring EU Manufacturing PMI data, with major economies like Germany, France, and Italy showing contraction.
JPY strengthened after Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama issued a verbal warning on currency movements after the yen hit a fresh 8-month near 154.5 against the dollar. After her comments, the yen strengthened to 153.50.
AUD inched lower to 0.6505 after the RBA left rates unchanged, saying wage growth has eased from its peak.
