Market drivers and catalysts
Equities: US stocks rebounded sharply, Europe edged higher and Asia rallied, as hopes of a Middle East off-ramp improved risk sentiment
Volatility: VIX cooling, still elevated, Iran risk, oil sensitivity, 1.3% SPX move
Digital Assets: BTC steady, ETH stronger, ETF support (IBIT/ETHA), selective altcoin strength, macro-driven
Fixed Income: US Treasuries rise for a third day on renewed rate cut hopes
Currencies: USD cools as Trump talk up a peace deal
Commodities: Oil steadies amid tight product markets; gold extends rally to fourth day; grains rise after USDA acreage miss
Macro events: EZ, UK and US March Manufacturing PMI (final), US Feb Retail Sales & US March ISM Manufacturing
Macro headlines
President Trump said the US could leave Iran within two to three weeks and indicated a deal with Tehran may be close, raising hopes the war that has jolted global markets may be nearing a conclusion.
Iran's official news agency said the country's president was willing to end the conflict but wants guarantees against further attacks. Trump also urged Straits users to secure it themselves. Meanwhile, The United Arab Emirates is preparing to help the U.S. and other allies open the Strait of Hormuz by force, according to Arab officials.
US job openings fell by 358,000 to 6.88 million in February 2026, below expectations, with declines across all regions and in accommodation, food services, and mining. Hires slipped to 4.8 million, while separations held at 5.0 million, with quits at 3.0 million and layoffs and discharges at 1.7 million.
US job quits fell to 2.97 million in February 2026, the lowest since August 2020, down from 3.13 million in January and 3.15 million a year earlier. The quits rate eased to 1.9%, with declines across all regions and most major sectors.
Japan’s large manufacturers grew more confident for a fourth straight quarter, with the Tankan index rising to 17 from 16, beating forecasts and supporting the BOJ’s ongoing rate-hike stance.
South Korea's exports continued to surge in March with shipments adjusted for working-day differences soaring 41.9% from a year earlier, driven by robust semiconductor demand.
Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)
0800 – Eurozone March Manufacturing PMI (final)
0830 – UK March Manufacturing PMI (final)
1215 – US March ADP Employment Change
1230 – US Feb Retail Sales
1400 – US March ISM Manufacturing
Earnings this week
Today: None
For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.
Equities
USA: The S&P 500 rose 2.9% to 6,528.52, the Nasdaq gained 3.8% to 21,590.63 and the Dow added 2.5% to 46,341.51, as investors priced in a potential easing of tensions in the Middle East and a pullback in oil prices. Technology and communication services led gains, with Nvidia up 5.6% on continued AI demand optimism, Marvell rising 12.8% after a strategic investment announcement, and Intel gaining 7.1% as semiconductors rebounded broadly. In contrast, Chevron slipped 1.8% as crude prices eased. Focus now turns to US manufacturing data and further geopolitical developments.
Europe: European equities closed higher, with the STOXX 600 up 0.4%, the Euro STOXX 50 up 0.5%, the FTSE 100 up 0.5% to 10,176.45 and the CAC 40 up 0.6% to 7,816.94, as optimism over a possible de-escalation in the Middle East supported sentiment despite lingering inflation concerns. Rolls-Royce gained 2.3% and London Stock Exchange Group rose 3.1% as UK equities extended their recovery, while UBS advanced 4.0% on expectations of less stringent capital rules. Unilever fell 7.3% after a strategic deal raised concerns over execution risk. Markets now watch whether easing geopolitical tensions can translate into a more stable growth outlook.
Asia: Asian markets rallied strongly, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 rising 5.0% to 53,621.08, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up 2.0% to 25,272.21, Shanghai up 1.1% to 3,936.29 and Australia’s All Ordinaries gaining 2.3% to 8,885.60, as Wall Street’s rebound lifted sentiment across the region. South Korea outperformed as strong export data supported semiconductor stocks, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both surging on improved demand expectations. In Japan, Recruit Holdings rose 7.6% after announcing a share buyback, while KDDI fell 3.3% after lowering its earnings outlook. Investors now look ahead to global macro data and whether the relief rally can be sustained.
Volatility
Volatility cooled, but it is still elevated. The VIX closed at 25.25 (-17.5%) on 31 March, while short-term measures dropped even faster, showing that immediate panic faded after headlines suggested a possible de-escalation in the Iran conflict. Still, VIX futures remain around 24–24.4, which tells you the market is not fully relaxed and still pricing ongoing uncertainty, especially around oil and inflation. Today’s focus shifts to US data, including ADP jobs, ISM manufacturing and oil inventories, which could quickly change sentiment again.
Options are pricing roughly an 84-point move (~1.3%) in the S&P 500 into the 2 April expiry. For today’s expiry, the options chain still shows mild downside skew, with puts slightly more expensive than calls, meaning investors are still hedging, but not aggressively.
Digital Assets
Crypto markets are stabilising alongside the broader risk rebound, but remain sensitive to macro headlines. Bitcoin traded around $68,800 (+0.9%) and Ether near $2,142 (+1.8%), while crypto-related equities outperformed, with Coinbase up 8.6% and MicroStrategy gaining 2.8%, reflecting improving sentiment. ETF flows remain supportive: IBIT rose 1.9% and ETHA 3.7%, reinforcing the idea that institutional demand is still present despite recent volatility. Altcoins were broadly firmer, with XRP up 1.1% and Solana gaining 1.5%, though the move still looks selective rather than a full risk-on rally.
The key takeaway for investors is that crypto is holding up well, but its direction still depends heavily on macro risk, ETF flows, and overall market confidence.
Fixed Income
US Treasuries rise for a third day extending a strong rally from last Friday, supported by lower oil prices and the first glimmer of hopes of an Iran de-escalation. The benchmark 10-year notes traded down 3 bps in Asia to 4.285% from a 4.48% last week, while the 2-year has fallen to 3.76% from a 4.02% high with traders rebuilding Fed rate-cut premia for this year and 2027.
The newest 10-year JGB yield fell further today, reaching 2.303% after the Tankan survey beat forecasts across the board with a notable jump for the large manufacturing outlook, opening the door for a BOJ hike this month.
Commodities
Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday after Trump once again talked up the prospect of the Iran war ending within weeks, even as Tehran signalled that no formal negotiations are underway. The modest pullback reflects concerns that reopening the Strait of Hormuz may not be a prerequisite for a U.S. withdrawal. Despite the softer tone in crude, refined fuel markets remain tight, with buyers of Brent cargoes still paying a premium of around USD 9/bbl above the front-month futures price near USD 103.50 - underscoring ongoing supply stress.
Gold and other hard assets, following a sharp correction, extended their rebound for a fourth consecutive session. Gold has so far stalled ahead of USD 4,759, marking the 50% retracement of the March decline. The recovery has been supported by a softer dollar amid peace speculation, while front-end yields - after a recent spike - are once again pricing in rate cuts in 2026 and 2027.
- Copper climbed to a two-week high, with HG futures rebounding after finding support at the 200-day moving average near USD 5.25 per pound. The move has been underpinned by renewed demand signals from China and tightening supply, with Chile - the world’s largest producer - reporting its lowest monthly output in nearly nine years, highlighting structural challenges in meeting electrification-driven demand as ore grades decline and key mines underperform.
Grain prices rose in Chicago as weaker-than-expected US planting figures added to supply concerns already intensified by the Middle East conflict. Soybeans led gains after the USDA reported acreage at 84.7 million, below expectations, while wheat plantings at 43.8 million acres also disappointed. Combined plantings across wheat, corn and soybeans were around one million acres below forecasts, and the softer acreage outlook risks tightening global grain supplies at a time when production is already under pressure from surging energy and fertilizer costs linked to the Iran war. Higher input costs are squeezing farm margins, incentivising shifts towards less fertilizer-intensive crops, and raising the risk of sustained food inflation with broader implications for global growth.
Currencies
USD softened ahead of month-end, trimming its strong monthly gain as reports of possible de-escalation in the Iran conflict reduced safe-haven demand The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.6% on the day but still ended March up about 2.4%, its best month since July.
Intervention worries persisted in Japan as USDJPY slipped to 158.80 after briefly peaking above 160 earlier in the week, a level that in the past has triggered strong selling activity from the Bank of Japan, however with TD Securities flagging higher intervention risk only on sustained moves toward 162–164.
USDCAD edged lower as Canadian GDP showed modest early-year growth, and EURUSD rebounded to 1.1575 following a month that has seen a 2% drop and a collapse in the long futures position held by speculators.
