Market drivers and catalysts
Equities: US and EU stocks fall, tariffs and weak earnings weigh, Microsoft/Meta rally
Volatility: VIX rises to 16.7, short-term vols jump, SPX expected move ±47 pts
Digital assets: Bitcoin $115.6k, Ether $3.68k, altcoins weaker, ETF flows stay positive
Fixed Income: US treasury yield volatility declines to three-year low ahead of July US jobs report
Currencies: JPY very weak post BoJ. USD rally slows ahead of US jobs report.
Commodities: Silver under pressure on copper’s huge slide
Macro events: Euron flash July CPI, US July Nonfarm Payrolls change and Unemployment Rate, US July ISM Manufacturing
Macro headlines
US President Trump signed an executive order imposing reciprocal tariffs between 10% and 41% on U.S. imports from various countries. India's exports to the U.S. face a 25% tariff, Taiwan's 20%, Switzerland’s a staggering 39%, and South Africa's 30%. Additionally, Trump raised tariffs on Canadian goods from 25% to 35%, according to the White House.
The US PCE price index rose 0.3% in June, its highest in four months, after a 0.2% increase in May, as expected. Goods prices increased by 0.4% and services by 0.2%. The core PCE index, excluding food and energy, matched forecasts with a 0.3% rise, following a 0.2% rise in May. Food prices went up 0.3%, while energy prices rebounded 0.9% after a 1% drop. US core PCE price index rose 0.3%, the largest increase in four months, matching market expectations.
US weekly initial jobless claims rose by 1,000 to 218,000, below market expectations of 224,000 and near a three-month low. Outstanding claims held steady at 1,946,000, slightly down from 2021 highs of over 1,960,000, indicating a robust labor market despite a steady slowdown in hiring.
Germany's annual inflation rate remained at 2% in July 2025, unchanged from June and above market expectations of 1.9%. Food prices increased to 2.2%, while energy costs decreased less at -3.4%. Service inflation slowed to a three-year low of 3.1%.
Japan's unemployment rate stayed at 2.5% in June 2025 for the fourth month, matching market estimates. The number of unemployed remained at a three-month low of 1.72 million, while employment fell by 50,000 to 68.32 million. The labor force dropped by 40,000 to 70.04 million, and those outside the labor force decreased by 50,000 to 39.57 million..
Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)
- 0900 – Eurozone Flash Jul. CPI / YoY Core CPI
- 1230 – US Jul. Nonfarm Payrolls Change
- 1230 – US Jul. Unemployment Rate
- 1230 – US Jul. Average Hourly Earnings
- 1400 – US Jul. ISM Manufacturing
- 1400 – US Jul. Final University of Michigan Sentiment
Earnings events
Note: earnings announcement dates can change with little notice. Consult other sources to confirm earnings releases as they approach.
Today: ExxonMobil, Chevron, Linde, Nintendo, Axa, Colgate Palmolive
Next week:
Monday: Palantir, Berkshire Hathaway, MercadoLibre, Vertex Pharmaceuticals
Tuesday: AMD, Caterpillar, Amgen, Eaton, Arista Networks, Pfizer, Transdigm, Supermicro
Wednesday:
Thursday: Eli Lilly, Toyota, Siemens, Deutsche Telekom, Allianz, Sony, Gilead, Conoco Philips, Softbank Group, Constellation Energy, Rheinmetall
For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.
Equities
US: US stocks extended losses Thursday as trade tensions persisted and inflation data clouded rate cut expectations. The S&P 500 slipped 0.37%, the Dow fell 0.74%, and the Nasdaq edged down 0.03%. Microsoft (+3.9%) and Meta (+11.2%) rallied after strong earnings, pushing Microsoft’s market cap past $4 trillion. Amazon dropped 6.6% on weak operating income guidance despite an earnings beat, while Apple gained 2.4% after exceeding estimates. The core PCE index rose 0.3% in June and 2.8% year-on-year, tempering hopes for a September rate cut. Tariff concerns added to market caution as President Trump confirmed a 25% duty on Mexican imports.
Europe: European stocks closed lower Thursday as weak earnings weighed on sentiment. The STOXX 50 fell 1.3% and STOXX 600 dropped 0.7%. Ferrari (-11.7%) and AB InBev (-11.6%) plunged after missing estimates, while Sanofi (-7%) and Schneider Electric (-4.5%) also declined. Luxury names Hermes and Adidas fell over 4% each, extending prior losses. BBVA gained 8% on strong earnings. Investors also braced for US tariffs on European exports, with the DAX down 0.8% and CAC 40 losing 1.1%.
UK: The FTSE 100 slipped 0.05% on Thursday but ended July up 4.2%, its best month since January. Mining stocks lagged after Trump exempted refined copper from new tariffs, with Antofagasta (-5.5%), Anglo American (-4%), and Rio Tinto (-2%) all falling. Rolls-Royce rose over 9% to a record high on upgraded guidance, while Shell gained more than 2% following a buyback announcement.
Asia: Asian markets were mixed Friday as tariffs and local tax changes weighed on sentiment. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.6% to a two-week low, dragged by Smoore (-7.8%) and Prada (-4.8%). South Korea’s KOSPI tumbled 3.7% on new corporate and capital gains tax proposals and US tariffs, with SK Hynix (-6%) and Poongsan (-15%) leading declines. Japan’s Nikkei and Australia’s ASX 200 edged lower, while Singapore’s STI and Malaysia’s KLCI gained modestly.
Volatility
Market volatility ticked higher as investors positioned for today’s nonfarm payrolls report and tariff developments. The VIX rose 1.24 to 16.72, while short-term measures VIX1D (+21.7%) and VIX9D (+12.6%) jumped more sharply. Option demand for near-term protection increased slightly, but longer-dated volatility stayed contained. SPX options imply a ±47-point (~0.7%) move for today’s session, consistent with a typical summer pullback.
Digital Assets
Cryptocurrencies softened with broader risk markets. Bitcoin traded near $115.6 k (‑0.1%) and Ether at $3.68 k (‑0.6%). Spot ETFs mirrored the dip: IBIT slipped to $66.3, ETHA to $28.3. Solana fell to $169 (‑1.9%), and XRP to $2.96 (‑2.1%). Despite price weakness, ETF flows remain net positive as long-term allocators continue adding exposure. MicroStrategy (+1.7%) outperformed after reporting solid earnings and fresh Bitcoin purchases.
Fixed Income
Ahead of today’s July US jobs report, US treasury yields rose slightly yesterday at the front end of the yield curve, with the US 2-year treasury benchmark testing the top of the multi-week range near 3.95%, while the US 10-year treasury benchmark yield chopped back in a narrow range, ending the day near 4.38%, close to the midpoint of the range of the last several months.
- The MOVE index that measures US interest rate volatility has plunged to its lowest level since early 2022.
Commodities
The US copper futures trade near 4.42 per pound today after US President Trump’s exemptions for the application of tariffs on raw copper that saw prices plunging more than 20% the previous day. That’s the lowest price level since the heart of the market volatility around the April 2 “Liberation Day” Trump tariff announcements.
Oil consolidated some of the recent rally on concerns linked to Trump’s threatened secondary sanctions on countries importing Russian crude, with Brent crude down just below USD 72 per barrel and WTI back below 69.50 per barrel. US President Trump will send special envoy Steve Witkoff to Moscow ahead of implementing any threatened sanctions. After Trump threatened India with additional sanctions for buying Russian crude, India told its oil refiners to come up with plans to diversify away from Russian imports. Additionally, Brazil is heavily reliant on Russian diesel.
Gold bounced back slightly after its 3,268 low but was unable to sustain a rally above the 3,300 level. 3,245-50 is a key chart support.
Silver continued lower after breaking below the prior major high of 37.25, with 36.00 the next area of chart support.
Currencies
The Japanese yen continued its sharp weakening after the Bank of Japan revised its CPI forecasts sharply higher and then Governor Ueda made it clear in the press conference that the Bank wanted to sit on its hands for a while to see how US tariffs are impacting hard data before making any policy adjustments. USDJPY ripped higher through the 200-day moving average near 149.60 and above the psychological level of 150.00, theoretically opening up the chart range toward the 158.87 high.
The US dollar firmed only slightly in broad terms yesterday ahead of today’s important July US jobs report after the steep rally on Wednesday, with the pivotal 100.00 level in play for the USD index.
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