Market Quick Take - 1 July 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

1. Equities: US and Europe ended Q2 at records, Asia turned mixed after a historic tech-led quarter.
2. Volatility: Equities closed a stellar quarter as vol compressed, SKEW and MOVE ticked higher into Thursday's shifted expiry
3. Digital Assets: Crypto stabilised as bitcoin held its recovery, MicroStrategy dropped
4. Commodities: USDA surprises lift corn and wheat; stronger dollar keeps gold on the defensive
5. Fixed Income: US treasuries sold off late Tuesday, possibly on end-of-quarter rebalancing effects
6. Currencies: USDJPY hits new modern record high, but volatility across major pairs low
7. Macro: Fed Chair Warsh to speak at ECB event, US June ADP Employment Change, US June ISM Manufacturing

Macro

1. US Consumer Confidence rose slightly for June, but not a much as expected, with the overall reading at 91.2 versus 94.4 expected and 90.6 in May. While the Expectations component improved from a revised 71.4 (from 74.4 originally) in May to 74.4 in June, the Present Situation component fell sharply to 116.4 vs. 123 expected and a downward revied 119.4 in May. That was the lowest reading since early 2021 and pre-pandemic since 2016.
2. US May 2026 JOLTS: Job openings edged up to 7.59 million, a twoyear high and well above the 7.30 million forecast, signalling a resilient labour market despite higher energy costs. Gains were led by wholesale, accommodation and food services, and real estate, while openings fell in health care and finance. Hires (5.2 million), separations (5.1 million), quits and layoffs were little changed.
3. BoJ’s large manufacturers’ sentiment index rose to 22 in Q2 2026 from 17 in Q1, beating expectations of 16 and marking the highest level since Q1 2018. Large firms now see capital expenditure up 11.5%, versus 3.3% in Q1.
4. Washington and Tehran are seeking a lasting deal, though Iran insists on controlling the waterway. Oil tanker traffic is rebounding after US–Iran clashes over Hormuz ceased. Analysts warn of a supply glut as exports surge: Iran says it has shipped over 40 million barrels since the US lifted its naval blockade, while Russian exports hit record highs, swelling barrels at sea.
5. Germany’s inflation slowed to 2.3% year-on-year in June from 2.6% in May, below the 2.6% forecast and down from April’s 2.9%. Goods inflation eased to 1.7% from 2.2% on weaker energy prices (3.4% vs. 6.6%), while food (0.4%), services (3.1%), and core inflation (2.5%) were unchanged. The EU-harmonized rate fell to 2.4% from 2.7%, still slightly above the ECB’s 2% target.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1. 0900 – Eurozone Flash Jun. CPI
2. 1215 – US Jun. ADP Employment Change
3. 1300 – Fed Chair Warsh to speak at ECB Sintra event
4. 1400 – US Jun. ISM Manufacturing
5. 1430 – EIA's Weekly Crude and Fuel Stocks Report

US Markets closed Friday to mark July 4 holiday.

Earnings events

1. Wednesday: General Mills

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

1. USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.8% to 7,499.36 on Tuesday, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.7% and the Dow added 0.3% to 52,319.20, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq capped their best quarter since 2020. Semiconductors led again, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 3.9%, Nvidia rising 2.6% on AI chip strength and Sandisk jumping 10.9% as memory demand stayed tight. AMD, Intel and KLA hit record highs.
2. Europe: Europe’s Stoxx 600 gained 0.9% to a record 641.73 on Tuesday, while the DAX rose 1.5% to 24,995.81, as easing geopolitical fears and AI optimism helped the region close its strongest quarter since 2020. The Euro Stoxx 50 finished Q2 up 13.6% and the CAC 40 rose 7.5%, showing that the rally was broader than one market. ASML surged 6.8% as chip demand lifted technology, and defence stocks outperformed after the UK announced a £15 billion military-spending boost.
3. Asia: Asia was mixed in Wednesday trade, with Japan’s Nikkei rising 1.0% while South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.4%, as investors took a breath after one of the strongest regional quarters in years. The MSCI Asia Pacific had risen 21.0% in Q2, while Tuesday’s local closes showed the Nikkei up 0.9% to 70,062.32 and the Kospi up 1.0% to 8,476.48. Samsung Electronics had gained 3.4% on chip strength, and TSMC jumped around 4% in Taipei after Morgan Stanley raised its price target.

Volatility

1. The S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 7,499.35, up 0.79%, capping the best quarterly gain since 2020 as chipmakers extended their quarterly advance; the Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.68% and semiconductors (SMH) rose 3.78%. Fed Chair Warsh addressed the ECB's Sintra forum on AI, while easing Iran war tensions supported sentiment. VIX fell 6.80% to 16.45, with VIX9D down to 13.73. The curve sits in contango, VIX3M near 19.00, pricing medium term uncertainty ahead of Thursday's jobs report.
2. Index options flow read as structural rather than directional. Confirmed opening premium ran to roughly USD 2.35 billion, tilted 57% calls, but the largest prints were packaged call and put combinations in SPXW and CBTX, alongside deep in the money stock replacement buying in Booking Holdings. SKEW rose 3.56% to 149.60, signalling firmer tail risk demand, while far out of the money SPY puts were sold to open. MOVE jumped 5.60% to 71.96.
3. SPX expected move: options markets imply roughly 59 points, or 0.78%, into Thursday's holiday adjusted weekly expiry, a range of about 7,435 to 7,553 around the 7,494 implied spot. Risk reversals carry a moderate put skew. Markets close Friday for Independence Day, with June's jobs report due Thursday morning.

Digital Assets

1. Digital assets firmed into Wednesday after a rough end to the quarter. Bitcoin traded near USD 59,200 in early hours, recovering modestly from Tuesday's close around USD 58,700, while Ethereum held near USD 1,595. Solana added roughly 2.7% and XRP was little changed. The move tracked a risk on tone as equities closed their best quarter since 2020, though bitcoin remains more than 50% below its October peak.
2. IBIT closed Tuesday at USD 33.29, down 2.6%, while ETHA fell 2.9% to USD 11.89. MicroStrategy dropped 6.2% to USD 86.93. Coinbase slid 3.6% to USD 146.19, extending a run in which crypto equities have underperformed broader technology peers by a wide margin.
3. Options positioning in crypto proxies read as mixed rather than bearish. MicroStrategy saw both bought and sold downside into September and October, while puts in Marathon and Riot were sold to open, consistent with premium harvesting.

Commodities

1. Chicago corn and wheat futures rallied after the latest USDA planting and grain stocks reports provided a supportive surprise. While US farmers planted more corn than expected following the late spring rally in prices, the bearish acreage increase was offset by June 1 corn stocks coming in 2% below market estimates, reflecting stronger-than-expected demand. Wheat also found support after farmers planted fewer acres than anticipated. Soybean futures followed corn higher despite planted acreage matching trade expectations.
2. Gold slipped back below USD 4,000 as the market has yet to attract sufficient buying interest to establish that level as support. Ongoing dollar strength remains the primary headwind, while today's focus is on what Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh may signal during his speech in Sintra, Portugal. Gold fell 14% during the second quarter, its worst quarterly performance since 2013, as investors continued to price in the risk that the Federal Reserve may tighten policy further in response to an inflation flare-up, despite the recent retreat in energy prices.
3. Oil traded little changed near recent lows as the market continued to absorb the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns about short-term oversupply. The 2027 average Brent crude price have fallen to around USD 71 per barrel from a war-driven peak near USD 82, although they remain above the pre-conflict level of around USD 65. While crude supply is increasing, refined fuel markets remain relatively tight, keeping refinery margins elevated and delaying the pass-through of lower crude prices to consumers through cheaper gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. Focus on today’s EIA stock report with another expected drop in crude inventories seen

Fixed Income

1. US treasuries sold off sharply Tuesday, with much of the move materializing late in the day on no news and possibly associated with end-of-month and end-of-quarter effects. The benchmark 2-year yield jumped some seven basis points to 4.17%, the highest close in a week. The 10-year treasury yield jumped nine basis points to 4.46%.

Currencies

1. USDJPY continued its ascent to new modern high since the 1980’s Tuesday and early Wednesday, posting a new high of 162.84 before finding resistance, supported in part by a fresh rebound in US treasury yields as the market eyes incoming US data through Thursday’s US June Jobs report.
2. Elsewhere, trading in G10 FX remains moribund, with recent average trading ranges for USD, EUR and JPY pairs in the bottom 13-17% of the last 1,000 trading days.

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