Market drivers and catalysts
Equities: Wall Street extended gains, Europe paused after a sharp rally, and Asia slipped as profit-taking followed earlier optimism.
Volatility: VIX lower, CPI focus, expected move compressing
Digital Assets: consolidation, mixed ETF flows, IBIT inflows, ETHA cautious
Fixed Income: US Treasury yields steady ahead of US March CPI release Friday
Currencies: US dollar rebounds slightly after weakness Thursday. JPY remains weak.
Commodities: BCOM set for weekly loss led by energy; gold’s rebound extends to a third week; wheat tumbles
Macro events: US March CPI & April University of Michigan Sentiment
Macro headlines
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Fed Chair Powell summoned major US bank CEOs to a special meeting to warn of and discuss the risks stemming from a new agentic AI model released by Anthropic called Mythos, one that can identify and exploit vulnerabilities in internet browsers and computer operating systems.
An Iranian delegation arrived in Islamabad Pakistan for negotiations with the US as a shaky “cease-fire” continues through perhaps the April 22 time frame, with US President Trump stepping up rhetoric against Iran’s intent to collect tolls for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz while also attempting to browbeat European allies into participating in security arrangements for the strait.
Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu said Israeli operations in Lebanon are outside the US–Iran truce, even as Washington pursues broader ceasefire talks. Trump warned Iran over Hormuz transit fees while the strait remains mostly shut. Saudi Arabia reported a 600,000-bpd capacity loss and damage to a key bypass pipeline.
US PCE prices rose 0.4% month-on-month, the fastest in a year, as goods prices jumped 0.7% and services slowed to 0.2%. Core PCE also increased 0.4%. Year-on-year, headline PCE hit 2.8% and core held at 3.0%.
US personal income fell 0.1% in February 2026, the first drop since May 2025 and below expectations for a 0.3% gain, as dividend income and transfer receipts declined. Wages, salaries, and farm income rose, but nominal and real disposable income still fell 0.1% and 0.5%, respectively.
US personal spending rose 0.5% in February 2026, up from a revised 0.3% in January, led by stronger goods and services outlays, but inflation-adjusted spending increased only 0.1%.
US GDP grew at a 0.5% annualized rate in Q4 2025, revised down from 0.7% and 1.4% on weaker investment and softer consumer spending. Government spending dropped sharply amid the shutdown, subtracting about 1 percentage point from growth. Full-year 2025 growth was 2.1%..
Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)
0600 – Norway March CPI
1230 – Canada March Unemployment Rate
1230 – US March CPI
1400 – US preliminary April University of Michigan Sentiment
Earnings events
Next week
Monday: Goldman Sachs, Fastenal
Tuesday: JP Morgan, Johnson & Johnson, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Blackrock, BMW
Wednesday: ASML, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Progressive Corporation, PNC Financial Services
Thursday: TSMC, Netflix, PepsiCo, Abbott Laboratories, Charles Schwab, Prologis, Bank of New York Mellon, US Bancorp, Marsh & McLennan, Travelers Companies, Infosys, Tesco
Friday: Truist Financial, Fifth Third Bancorp, Ericsson,
For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.
Equities
USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.6% to 6,824.66, the Dow Jones gained 0.6% to 48,150.80, and the Nasdaq 100 added 0.7% as markets extended their winning streak on improving risk sentiment. Consumer discretionary stocks led, with Amazon jumping 5.6% after upbeat commentary on artificial intelligence growth lifted confidence in its long-term outlook. Meta gained 3.4% after expanding its cloud partnership, reinforcing AI demand visibility. Brown-Forman surged 12.9% on takeover interest, while Texas Pacific Land fell over 10% on profit-taking after recent gains. Investors now look ahead to incoming macro data and earnings to test the rally’s durability.
Europe: The STOXX 600 fell 0.1% to 612.59 and the Euro Stoxx 50 declined 0.3% to 5,896.29, while Germany’s DAX dropped 1.1% to 23,806.99 and the FTSE 100 edged 0.1% lower to 10,603.48 as markets cooled after a strong prior session. Technology weighed on sentiment, with SAP falling 6.8% on sector weakness, while broader selling reflected caution around global growth and policy outlooks. Despite the softer close, pockets of strength remained, with several industrial and financial names hitting record highs, showing underlying resilience. Markets now shift focus to upcoming economic data and earnings for clearer direction.
Asia: Asian markets closed mixed to lower, with the Hang Seng falling 0.5% to 25,752.40 and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping 2.0% as technology names came under pressure. Alibaba declined 2.9% amid continued weakness in Chinese internet stocks, while South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.6% to 5,778.01, led lower by Samsung Electronics, which dropped 3.1%. In contrast, Japan’s Fast Retailing surged 8.8% to a record high after raising its full-year outlook, highlighting stock-specific strength. Early Friday trading pointed to a rebound in Korea, suggesting sentiment remains reactive to flows and positioning.
Volatility
Volatility eased into Friday, with the VIX closing at 19.49 after briefly spiking above 21 intraday, reflecting a market that is calmer but still sensitive to headlines. The focus now shifts to US CPI, which could quickly reset expectations—an upside surprise would likely push yields higher and pressure equities, while a softer print could extend the recent relief rally. For investors, the message is clear: geopolitical stress has faded, but macro risk has taken its place.
The options market implied a move of around 72 points (1.1%) into the weekly expiry as of Thursday, narrowing to roughly 40 points (0.6%) for today’s session, signalling reduced near-term uncertainty. Today’s SPX options positioning still shows a mild downside skew, with puts around the money priced above calls, indicating that investors continue to favour protection into the CPI release.
Digital Assets
Digital assets held on to most of this week’s recovery, but the tone turned more cautious ahead of key macro data. Bitcoin traded around USD 72k and Ethereum near USD 2.2k, while XRP, Solana and Dogecoin remained broadly stable, suggesting resilience without a decisive breakout. Crypto continues to behave in line with broader risk sentiment rather than as a standalone driver.
ETF flows remain a key anchor. IBIT continued to attract inflows even as overall Bitcoin ETF flows were mixed, pointing to selective institutional demand rather than broad accumulation. ETHA flows were more cautious, with options activity leaning defensive, reinforcing a more balanced positioning. At the same time, softer futures participation and pressure on Bitcoin miners suggest the recovery is not yet fully supported by strong underlying demand. For now, crypto remains sensitive to macro catalysts, with CPI likely to drive the next move.
Fixed Income
US treasury yields were steady Thursday ahead of Friday’s March US CPI report. After dipping intraday, yields recovered overnight into Friday’s early hours, with the the benchmark 2-year treasury yield trading near 3.79% and the benchmark 10-year treasury yield steady just above 4.29%.
US High Yield corporate bonds rallied strongly again, with the Bloomberg index of high yield corporate bond spreads to US treasuries tightening sharply in recent days. The spread tightened 10 basis points from Wednesday into the Thursday close, to 270 basis points. The spread was as high as 335 basis points on March 30.
Japan’s government bond yields pushed close to cycle highs, with the benchmark 2-year JGB yield trading near 1.40% late Friday in Tokyo, about half a basis point below cycle highs. Likewise, yields rose at the longer end of the curve, with the benchmark 10-year JGB yield trading near 2.43% and eyeing its highest daily close for the cycle.
Commodities
The Bloomberg Commodity Index is heading for a weekly loss of around 3.3% but remains up 22% year-to-date. The setback follows a ceasefire-driven slump in the energy sector, where the index dropped 9% on the week (+53% YTD), as crude and fuel products saw a broad retreat. The agriculture sector posted a modest decline (+5% YTD), led by profit-taking in corn, wheat, and sugar. By contrast, precious (+11% YTD) and industrial metals (+6.2% YTD) rebounded, supported by gains in copper and silver, while platinum—though not included in the index—outperformed the complex.
Crude prices try to stabilised below USD 100 following the sharpest weekly drop since last June yet remain underpinned by mixed signals surrounding the proposed peace plan, a roughly 600k b/d cut in Saudi production capacity, and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February. The latter remains a key focus ahead of talks between U.S. and Iranian officials in Islamabad on Saturday. Meanwhile, spot Brent transactions continue to clear at notable premiums to futures, underscoring mounting supply stress as refiners scramble to replace disrupted Middle East flows.
Gold is heading for a third consecutive weekly gain, having recovered roughly half of the USD 1,500 correction seen between February and March. Following the initial liquidity and inflation shock that triggered a sharp sell-off during the first week of the Middle East conflict, prices have since rebounded, supported by a softer dollar, as market focus shifted toward the risk of a growth shock and mounting fiscal debt concerns. After a 3% reduction (94 tons) during the correction, holdings in bullion-backed ETFs have begun to recover, with 21 tons added so far this month.
Chicago wheat futures dropped to a one-month low, pressured by profit-taking and technical selling following the recent decline in energy prices. The move also comes after the USDA raised its forecast for end-season global wheat stocks to 283.1 million tons, up from 277 million previously. After holding a net short position for a record duration, hedge funds flipped to a small net long in the week to 31 March, leaving the market exposed to the recent deterioration in both technical and fundamental conditions.
EU Gas: ICE Futures Europe will extend trading hours for the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) - Europe’s largest natural gas contract for heating and power generation—to 21 hours per day. Trading will begin Sunday at 22:50 London time, ten minutes ahead of the official open for oil futures on NYMEX and ICE, making TTF the first major energy contract to start the trading week.
Currencies
The US dollar sold off Thursday amidst a rebound in risk sentiment, with EURUSD poking to a new multi-week high above 1.1715 briefly before easing back below 1.1700 and AUDUSD testing as high as 0.7095 before rolling back to 0.7070 in Friday’s Asian trading session.
The Japanese yen remains broadly weak as USDJPY continues to trade above 159.00 Friday in Asia, while EURJPY, for example, posted a new local high above 186.00 on Thursday and trades near 186.15 early Friday, just below its record high daily close from late January and the all-time intraday high of 186.87.
