Market drivers and catalysts
Equities: Equities ended mixed in the U.S. and Europe, then turned lower in Asia as Hormuz fears displaced ceasefire relief.
Volatility: geopolitics, oil-driven risk, earnings season start, VIX firming
Digital Assets: resilient BTC/ETH, selective alt strength, IBIT/ETHA demand, mixed options flow
Fixed Income: Global bond yields rise on the jump in crude oil prices.
Currencies: USD rebounds, if modestly, on the surge in crude oil prices after US-Iran cease-fire talks failed.
Commodities: Crude back above USD 100 after Trump escalates tensions; metals weaken as USD and yields rebound
Macro events: US Mar. Existing Home Sales, China Mar. Trade Balance (early Tue.)
Macro headlines
In Hungary’s general election, the long-ruling Fidesz party headed by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán lost in a landslide to the opposition Tisza (Respect and Freedom) party, which gained a more than two-thirds majority in parliament. This supermajority will allow Tisza and its leader Péter Magyar to change Hungary’s constitution. EU leaders celebrated the result as Orbán had held up key EU initiatives including support for Ukraine’s war effort. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said “Hungary has chosen Europe…The union grows stronger.”
Trump announced a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after talks with Iran collapsed. From 10 a.m. Eastern, vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports will face restrictions. Washington said Tehran refused to curb its nuclear programme, while Iran had sought control of the strait, reparations, a broader ceasefire, and access to frozen assets. The shutdown of this critical shipping route has driven energy prices sharply higher, lifting inflation risks and reinforcing expectations that central banks may delay easing or even maintain tighter policy for longer. Iran was still exporting crude and condensate from the Persian Gulf in March, with China the primary destination, and the latest escalation risks further straining US–China relations.
The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index sank 11% to a record low of 47.6 in early April 2026, well below expectations of 52 and 9% under last year. With most surveys taken before the cease-fire, the Iran conflict’s impact was clear. Sentiment fell across all groups: one-year business expectations dropped 20%, personal finances 11%, and buying conditions for durables and vehicles worsened. Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 4.8% from 3.8%, and long-term expectations rose to 3.4%.
US inflation rose to 3.3% in March 2026, the highest since May 2024 and up from 2.4% in January and February, driven by a 12.5% jump in energy costs tied to the Iran war. Gasoline climbed 18.9% and fuel oil 44.2%, while used-car prices fell 3.2%, shelter held at 3%, and food eased to 2.7%. Monthly CPI rose 0.9%, the biggest gain since June 2022, led by a 21.2% gas surge. Core inflation reached 2.6% year over year, with core prices up 0.2% on the month.
US core consumer prices rose 0.2% in March 2026, matching February and slightly below the expected 0.3%. Transportation services climbed 0.6%, reflecting indirect effects of higher energy prices after war-related disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Airports have said jet fuel could run short within three weeks in Europe if oil supplies do not start to flow through the strait of Hormuz, raising concerns over flight cancellations across Europe going into the summer holiday season. The warning came from Airports Council International (ACI) Europe, which wrote to the EU’s energy and transport commissioners saying the bloc is three weeks away from shortages.
Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)
1400 – US Mar. Existing Home Sales
2220 – US Fed’s Miran to speak
0030 – Australia Apr. Westpac Consumer Confidence
0130 – Australia Mar. NAB Business Confidence/Conditions
0200 – China Mar. Trade Balance
OPEC due to publish Monthly Oil Market Report
Earnings this week
Monday: Goldman Sachs, Fastenal
Tuesday: JP Morgan, Johnson & Johnson, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Blackrock, BMW
Wednesday: ASML, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Progressive Corporation, PNC Financial Services
Thursday: TSMC, Netflix, PepsiCo, Abbott Laboratories, Charles Schwab, Prologis, Bank of New York Mellon, US Bancorp, Marsh & McLennan, Travelers Companies, Infosys, Tesco
Friday: Truist Financial, Fifth Third Bancorp, Ericsson
For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.
Equities
USA: The S&P 500 slipped 0.1% to 6,816.89 and the Dow fell 0.6% to 47,916.57, while the Nasdaq rose 0.4% to 22,902.89 as investors paused after a powerful week and waited for the weekend’s U.S.-Iran talks. March consumer inflation came in at 3.3% and consumer sentiment hit a record low, which kept the broader tone cautious even as chip names held up. Broadcom rose 4.7%, Nvidia gained 2.6%, Taiwan Semiconductor’s U.S. shares added 1.4%, and CoreWeave jumped 10.9% on its Anthropic deal. Bank earnings now have a chance to drag the story back toward fundamentals.
Europe: The Stoxx 600 rose 0.4% to 614.84 and the Euro Stoxx 50 gained 0.5% to 5,926.11, while Germany’s DAX was flat at 23,803.95 and the FTSE 100 eased 0.03% to 10,600.53, as cautious optimism on weekend Iran talks outweighed doubts around the fragile ceasefire. Financials and technology helped, but the move stayed selective rather than broad. Brunello Cucinelli rose 5.3% after a first-quarter revenue beat, Holcim gained after fresh broker upgrades, while Sodexo fell 10.6% after cutting guidance and Repsol dropped 5.8% on a weak trading update. Markets now shift from diplomacy back to earnings and inflation.
Asia: Friday’s trading session finished on a firm note, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 1.8% to 56,924.11, South Korea’s Kospi up 1.4% to 5,858.87, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up 0.6% to 25,891.88, and Singapore’s Straits Times up 0.3% to 4,989.41, as markets leaned into hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough. Technology did much of the lifting: Taiwan Semiconductor gained 1.3%, Samsung Electronics rose 2.3%, and SK Hynix added 3.6% as chip demand and artificial-intelligence memory enthusiasm stayed strong. That mood faded quickly on Monday morning, with the Nikkei, Kospi, and Hang Seng all down about 1% as the planned Hormuz blockade pushed oil back above $100.
Volatility
Volatility firmed at the start of the week after easing into Friday, with the VIX closing at 19.23 but futures (VX1 ~22.18) pointing higher as markets reacted to renewed geopolitical tension. The U.S. move to block key shipping routes linked to Iran pushed oil prices higher, bringing inflation risks back into focus just as earnings season begins. For investors, this matters because rising energy costs and uncertainty can quickly feed into company margins and forward guidance, especially for global and cyclical sectors.
From an options perspective, the SPX is pricing a move of around 109 points (1.59%) into 17 April, while today’s expiry implies a more contained 56 points (0.82%) move.
The 0DTE skew indicator shows calls slightly richer than puts around the 6,815 strike, suggesting a mild upside bias rather than strong downside protection demand, even as macro risks increase.
Digital Assets
Digital assets remained relatively stable to start the week, though sentiment stayed cautious as macro uncertainty dominated. Bitcoin traded around $70,996, while Ethereum held near $2,195, showing resilience despite the geopolitical backdrop and higher oil prices. Among major altcoins, XRP (~$1.33) and Solana (~$82) moved modestly higher, indicating selective risk appetite rather than broad-based weakness.
ETF flows continue to provide underlying support. IBIT traded around $41.56 (+1.6%), reflecting ongoing institutional demand, while ETHA (~$17.05, +1.7%) also saw steady inflows. Options activity points to a mixed but constructive setup: strong upside positioning in MicroStrategy contrasts with defensive flows in Coinbase, while ETF-related strategies lean more toward income generation than aggressive bullish exposure. Overall, crypto markets appear stable, but direction remains closely tied to macro developments.
Fixed Income
US treasury yields jumped Monday on the fresh surge in crude oil prices as US-Iran cease-fire talks failed to see a breakthrough. The benchmark 2-year treasury yield rose more than three basis points to trade near 3.83% Monday in Asian in Asian trading hours, while the benchmark 10-year treasury yield rose less than three basis points to trade near the middle of the range of the last three weeks near 4.34%
Japan’s government bonds sold off on the hefty jump in crude oil prices in the wake of the failure of US-Iran cease-fire talks. While the benchmark 2-year JGB yield was almost unchanged late Monday in Tokyo from Friday’s close near 1.40% after an intraday sell-off, the benchmark 10-year JGB yield rose three basis points to trade to a new cycle high since the 1990’s at 2.47%, though down from an intraday high of 2.495%.
Commodities
Oil surged back above USD 100 after President Donald Trump ordered a blockade on vessels linked to Iranian ports attempting to sail through the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions following the collapse of peace talks. Iran was still exporting crude and condensate from the Persian Gulf in March, with China the primary destination. Global benchmark Brent crude rose nearly 8%, while European natural gas futures traded 13% higher into the European session. Monthly oil market reports on tap from OPEC today and the IEA on Tuesday.
The disruption has reinforced concerns about supply, particularly across middle distillates. Tight availability continues to underpin diesel and jet fuel markets, with some European airports warning of potential shortages within three weeks if flows are not restored.
- Hedge funds held a net long in crude futures near a four-year high in the week to 7 April, just ahead of the US–Iran ceasefire announcement. This likely helps explain part of the subsequent 16% price slump, reinforcing the view that last week’s sharp decline was primarily driven by an overcrowded long rather than any meaningful easing in underlying fundamentals.
Metals, including gold, silver, and copper, are trading lower following the announcement, as the dollar and bond yields move higher amid renewed inflation and growth concerns. US inflation surged in March by the most in nearly four years, with a record increase in gasoline prices accounting for nearly three-quarters of the monthly rise—complicating the Federal Reserve’s ability to ease policy. Gold remains range-bound for now, trading between USD 4,650 and USD 4,850.
Currencies
The US dollar firmed on weaker global risk sentiment as crude oil price shot higher on the Trump administration’s threat to close the Hormuz Strait after US-Iran cease-fire talks failed. EURUSD traded as low as 1.1658 early Monday after closing Friday at 1.1723, but rose back toward 1.1690 by early European hours, while USDJPY traded as high as 159.85, up from Friday’s close at 159.27.
AUD was resilient Monday after a sharp dip after the opening of trading for the week. AUDUSD traded as low as 0.6986 before rebounding to 0.7040, only slightly down from the Friday close of 0.7065. China’s offshore yuan remained steady as well, with USDCNH trading near 6.83, less than 0.1% higher from Friday’s close, which was the lowest weekly close since early 2023.
