Market Quick Take – 18 June 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

1. Equities: US fell after a hawkish Fed, Europe hit records, while Asia rose before facing weaker futures.
2. Volatility: Hawkish Fed, VIX elevated, US-Iran deal supports sentiment
3. Digital Assets: Bitcoin and Ethereum weaker, altcoins lower, defensive options flow, institutions remain cautious
4. Commodities: Crude tumbles as Hormuz reopening nears; gold hit by Fed, lifted by Trump
5. Fixed Income: Pronounced US Treasury yield curve flattening after FOMC as short yields jump and longest yields fell.
6. Currencies: USD jumps on heightened rate hike anticipation, though USDJPY saw less reaction than other USD majors.
7. Macro: Central Bank Rate decisions in Norway, Switzerland & UK

Macro

1. The Fed held rates steady at Kevin Warsh’s first meeting but surprised hawkishly: 9 of 19 officials now see at least one hike this year, up from none in March, and Warsh scrapped traditional forward guidance while pledging to restore price stability. Short US yields backed up sharply as rate hike odds as soon as October were more fully priced in, even as the reaction at the longer end of the US yield curve was muted, with 30-year yields actually falling – meaning a sharp flattening of the US yield curve.
2. The Fed lifted its 2026 PCE forecast to 3.6% and core PCE to 3.3% from 2.7% for both previously . Chair Warsh also launched five task forces to review and potentially overhaul Fed communications framework, the size of the Fed’s balance sheet, and other issues.
3. Many banks raised their forecasts FOMC policy rate, while Citi pushed its call for a first rate cut to October. The 2026 median Fed funds rate forecast rose to 3.8% from 3.4% in March, and for 2027, rose to 3.6% from 3.1%, but Fed Chair Warsh did not provide a forecast for the dot plot.
4. UK May Payrolled Monthly Employees Change rose 2k vs. -23k expected and the April data saw a +47k positive revision from -100k to -53k. The May Claimant Count rose to 4.5% from 4.4% in April while the slower ILO Unemployment Survey – only reporting data through April today – reported that the Unemployment drop fell to 4.9% versus 5.0% expected and 5.0% in March.
5. Trump signed an interim deal to end the war with Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, despite criticism from Republicans that the US is conceding too much. The deal suggesting Iran should have the right to enrich uranium, develop ballistic missiles, and access frozen funds. The memorandum of understanding is now in effect, and it envisions the rapid reopening of the strait and immediate sanctions waivers for Iranian oil.
6. US retail sales rose 0.9% m/m in May 2026, beating forecasts (0.5%) and April’s revised 0.4%, signalling a consumption bounce back. Ex-gas, sales climbed 0.7% with broad-based strength across online, autos, and discretionary categories; restaurants/bars and electronics/appliances declined. The core “control group” for GDP also rose 0.7%, after 0.5% in April.
7. US pending home sales rose 3.8% m/m in May 2026, the largest gain since September 2024 and well above the 0.8% forecast. All regions saw increases, and sales were up 4.8% y/y. NAR’s Lawrence Yun said the jump reflects pent-up demand and growing acceptance of >6% mortgage rates, while stressing the need for more housing supply.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1. 0730 – Switzerland Rate Decision (no change exp.)
2. 0800 – Norway Rate Decision (no change exp.)
3. 1100 – Bank of England Rate Decision (no change exp.)
4. 1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
5. 1230 – Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook
6. 2330 – Japan May National CPI

Earnings events

1. Thursday: Accenture, Kroger

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

1. USA: US equities fell on Wednesday after the Fed held rates but sounded more hawkish. The S&P 500 dropped 1.2% to 7,420.10, while the Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones both lost 1.0%. Every S&P 500 sector closed lower, led by communication services. Microsoft fell 3.8% and was the biggest drag, while Carvana dropped 10.3% and CarMax lost almost 9% after weaker same-store sales. Adobe slid 5.3% to its lowest level in more than eight years, while Broadcom, Micron and Applied Materials gained as chip shares rebounded. Markets now watch whether the Fed’s tougher tone dents risk appetite further.
2. Europe: European equities closed at fresh record highs ahead of the Fed decision. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.5% to 639.31, the Euro Stoxx 50 gained 0.7% to 6,300.07, the DAX added 0.1%, and the FTSE 100 rose 0.1%. Banks gained for a fifth straight session and reached a new post-2008 high, helped by stronger rate expectations. ASML rose 4.1% and supported the broader market, while Straumann jumped 10.8% after raising its margin outlook. BMW slumped 8.3% after cutting its profitability forecast on weaker China demand, dragging autos lower. Europe now faces the Fed hangover test.
3. Asia: Asian equities closed mostly higher on Wednesday for a fourth straight session, before US futures later pointed to a softer open after the Fed. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5%, while South Korea’s Kospi gained 1.6% to 8,864.24 as SK Hynix surged 5.8% to a record on AI semiconductor demand. Singapore’s Straits Times Index rose around 1% to about 5,168, while Japan’s Nikkei had closed at a record in the prior session after the Bank of Japan rate hike. Hong Kong-listed Chinese stocks stayed under pressure as investors preferred North Asian AI supply-chain names.

Volatility

1. Volatility remains elevated after the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged but delivered a more hawkish message than markets had expected. The VIX rose to 18.44, while short-term measures climbed even more sharply, with VIX1D at 20.68 and VIX9D at 18.63, reflecting increased demand for near-term protection following Chair Kevin Warsh’s first post-decision press conference. Investors will now focus on US jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed survey, and the implications of the US-Iran peace framework, which has improved risk sentiment and pushed oil prices lower.
2. Based on SPX options pricing, the market is currently implying a weekly expected move of roughly 77 points, or 1.04%, suggesting a range of approximately 7,343 to 7,497 around the current 7,420 level.
3. Today's options expiry continues to show mild downside skew, with puts trading at slightly richer levels than comparable calls. In practical terms, investors are still willing to pay a premium for downside protection, although the options market is signalling caution rather than outright fear.

Digital Assets

1. Digital assets are softer following the Fed meeting, as higher-for-longer rate expectations continue to weigh on speculative assets. Bitcoin trades near $63,945, while Ethereum changes hands around $1,729, both extending recent declines despite improving geopolitical sentiment following the US-Iran agreement. The crypto market has largely failed to participate in the broader relief rally seen in equity futures.
2. Crypto-linked equities are also under pressure. IBIT fell 2.18% and ETHA declined 3.47%, while major crypto-related stocks including COIN, MSTR, and MARA also moved lower. Among the larger altcoins, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin remain in negative territory, highlighting broad-based weakness across the sector. Options flow data from yesterday reinforced this cautious backdrop, with activity heavily skewed toward protective positioning rather than bullish speculation, suggesting institutional investors remain focused on risk management following the Fed meeting.

Commodities

1. Crude prices fell to fresh lows after Wednesday’s rebound proved short-lived, with markets continuing to price in a rapid normalization of supply following President Trump's signing of the US-Iran interim peace deal. Attention has now shifted to the pace at which traffic through the Strait of Hormuz can recover. An estimated 100 million barrels of crude and refined products are already loaded on tankers and waiting to leave the Gulf, while regional producers are taking steps to restart shut-in production. Goldman Sachs estimates that alternative pipeline routing has reduced the region's dependence on Hormuz, meaning Gulf exports could effectively normalize once seaborne flows recover to around 70% of their pre-war level, equivalent to roughly 13 million barrels per day.
2. Meanwhile, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to a 43-year low last week as the administration continued releasing crude under the IEA-coordinated emergency relief programme. Total releases have now reached 75 million barrels, with a further 97 million barrels scheduled under the current 172-million-barrel plan. Weekly EIA data also showed inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma - the key delivery hub for WTI crude - declined for an eighth consecutive week, pushing stocks to just above 20 million barrels, the lowest level since 2014 and uncomfortably close to so-called "tank-bottom" levels, below which the storage system cannot operate efficiently.
3. Gold tumbled around USD 160 to a low of USD 4,257 after a surprisingly hawkish FOMC meeting signalled the potential for another rate hike later this year. However, bullion rebounded strongly, climbing to around USD 4,325 after President Trump signed the interim US-Iran peace deal, triggering a fresh sell-off in crude oil. The contrasting reactions highlight the market's current struggle to balance short-term macro headwinds against longer-term structural support for gold. With energy prices retreating sharply, it also remains questionable whether the Federal Reserve's 2026 inflation projections - PCE at 3.6% and core PCE at 3.3% - will prove too high and require downward revisions in the months ahead. Key resistance levels being trendline at USD 4,425 and the 200-DMA at USD 4,461

Fixed Income

1. US Treasuries at the front end of the curve sold off on the hawkish interpretation of the FOMC Meeting, even as new Fed Chair Warsh failed to indicate forward direction for policy in the press conference as a new stance of not providing forward guidance was clearly emphasized. The benchmark 2-year treasury yield jumped more than fifteen basis points to a new high for the cycle high above 4.20% briefly late Wednesday before easing back to 4.16% as the market priced in near certain odds of a first new Fed hike at the October FOMC meeting. The benchmark 10-year yield rose far less in reaction to the FOMC meeting and press conference as it smelled a more hawkish stance, possibly taking Warsh’s inflation-fighting stance at face value, which could slow the US economy meaningful. At first, the yield jumped a few basis points to nearly 4.50%, but had dropped back to almost unchanged, at 4.445% and only a few basis points above the recent range lows. This crushed the 2-10 slope of the US treasury yield curve to 28 basis points, down from near 40 basis points prior to the meeting and at its flattest since April of 2025. The 30-year T-bond yield traded early Thursday some five basis points lower than its Tuesday close, suggesting that Warsh made a strong impression in trusting inflation adjusted returns for long term bond investors.
2. Japan’s government bond yields were unreactive to the volatility in US treasury yields after the FOMC meeting. The benchmark 2-year JGB yield traded almost unchanged near 1.39% and the benchmark 10-year JGB yield pushed about a basis point higher to 2.615%.

Currencies

1. The US dollar jumped sharply higher on the boost to short US interest rates after the FOMC meeting policy statement removed its “easing bias” and new Fed Chair waxed hawkish on fighting inflation at the press conference, even as he refused to comment on the Fed’s next move. EURUSD was sent from above 1.1600 before the meeting to as low as is stuck gyrating near the 1.1600 level and USDJPY remains above 160.00 with little energy and little evidence in options implied volatilities that Wednesday’s new FOMC policy statement or Warsh press conference will bring strong surprises.
2. USDJPY rose to new local highs on the hawkish interpretation of the FOMC meeting, but the JPY failed to weaken as much as most other major currencies versus the US dollar, perhaps as the longest US yields fell on the more hawkish Fed, meaning US-Japan yield spreads tightened at the long end of the curve. That has been a traditional focus for USDJPY exchange rate. It could also be that traders are unwilling to pile into new USDJPY trades, fearing Japan’s Ministry of Finance is ready to intervene again after doing so near current levels in dramatic fashion in late April. In the crosses, the JPY was much firmer, with EURJPY trading just below 185.00, down from above 186.20 ahead of the FOMC meeting.
3. Sweden’s krone traded weaker versus the Euro and other European peers Thursday as the expected Riksbank hawkish shift was milder than expected. The bank forecast a rate only one basis point higher than the current policy rate for Q3 of this year, even as it guided that rate hike odds have risen. Short Swedish yields fell slightly and EURSEK backed up as high as 10.95 from recent local lows near 10.86 before finding resistance.