Market drivers and catalysts
Equities: Risk-off tone kicked off December as Wall Street dipped, Europe stalled after November’s run, while Hong Kong rebounded modestly
Volatility: VIX back in high-teens; data-heavy week; SPX options price ~±1.1% move
Digital assets: Bitcoin stabilises near $87k after sell-off; IBIT and ETHA drop hard
Currencies: USD bid returns as JPY rebound fades
Commodities: Silver corrects after surge, Oil supported by rising risk premium
Fixed Income: Strong JGB auction supports risk sentiment
Macro events: Eurozone Nov CPI
Macro headlines
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2 in November 2025, its lowest in four months, signaling deeper sector contraction. Key declines were seen in supplier deliveries, new orders, and employment, while workforce management focused on maintaining headcounts.
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI reached 52.2 in November 2025, slightly above estimates but down from October's 52.5, indicating moderating sector improvement. Output increased strongly, aided by new orders, while demand growth was modest amid uncertainty. Record inventory surges reflected softer sales.
Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)
0700 – UK Nov Nationwide House Prices
1000 – Eurozone Nov CPI
1000 – OECD releases latest economic outlook
Earnings events
Tuesday: CrowdStrike Holdings, Marvell
Wednesday: Salesforce Inc, Dollar Tree
Thursday: Kroger, Hewlett-Packard, Ulta Beauty, Dollar General
For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.
Equities
USA: U.S. equities slipped at December’s open, with the S&P 500 down 0.5%, the Nasdaq off 0.4% and the Dow losing 0.9% as traders turned cautious ahead of the delayed September personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation report and next week’s Fed meeting. A sharp slide in Bitcoin to the mid-$86,000s hurt risk appetite, dragging crypto-linked names such as Coinbase, which fell 4.8%. Profit-taking hit some AI leaders as Broadcom dropped 4.2%, while Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta eased around 1%, even as Nvidia gained 1.7% and Synopsys jumped 4.9% after news of a strategic Nvidia investment. Retailers held up better, with Home Depot and Walmart edging higher as holiday spending remains the key near-term support for the U.S. consumer story.
Europe: European stocks started December on a quieter note, with the Euro Stoxx 50 ending broadly flat around 5,669 and the Stoxx 600 slipping 0.2% after a strong November. Industrials weighed on the region as Airbus fell about 5.8% after reports of a fresh quality issue on A320-family jets, while defence names such as Rheinmetall, Rolls-Royce and BAE Systems also declined as investors briefly leaned into hopes of progress on Ukraine peace talks. Offsetting some of the drag, ASML rose 2.6% after a supportive ratings update, and precious-metals miners outperformed, with Fresnillo, Anglo American and Glencore all advancing. Markets now watch incoming eurozone inflation data and upcoming central-bank signals to judge whether November’s rally can resume into year-end.
Asia: Asian trading was mixed, but Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 0.7% to 26,033, recouping part of its prior session’s loss as investors bet on eventual U.S. rate cuts and further Chinese support after soft November manufacturing surveys. Property names contributed to the rebound, with Sun Hung Kai Properties up about 1.9%, while ZTE surged 13.9% after securing new 5G network deals in Vietnam. By contrast, Meituan fell 2.9% after reporting its first quarterly loss since 2022, reminding investors that Chinese consumer and platform stocks still face patchy demand. Regional attention now turns to more activity data from China and the Fed meeting, which together will shape how durable this latest bounce in Hong Kong and mainland shares proves.
Volatility
Equity volatility is creeping higher again after Monday’s pullback in US stocks and a shaky start to December in crypto. The VIX has moved back into the high-teens, while short-dated measures (VIX1D, VIX9D) are firmer, signalling investors are buying a bit more near-term protection but still not pricing in real stress.
This week’s focus is on eurozone CPI today and US data later in the week (JOLTS, ISM services, ADP and Friday’s payrolls), which will guide expectations for early-2026 Fed cuts.
Options on the S&P 500 point to an expected move of about ±76 points (±1.1%) into Friday’s 5 December expiry. Skew indicator (today’s 0DTE expiry): moderate downside put skew – protection costs more than upside, but markets remain orderly.
Digital Assets
Crypto markets are trying to find a floor after a sharp December shake-out. Bitcoin is back near $87k after dropping below $84k on Monday, its weakest stretch in more than four years, as November brought heavy selling and sizeable outflows from spot ETFs. BlackRock’s IBIT fell almost 6% yesterday and ETHA nearly 10%, underlining how sensitive listed products remain to risk sentiment and liquidity.
Major coins are mixed this morning, with Ethereum around $2,800, Solana near $127 and XRP just above $2.00, while crypto-linked equities such as COIN and MSTR remain under pressure. Longer-term, two forces pull in opposite directions: near-term jitters and regulation headlines on one side, and structural support from moves like Vanguard opening its platform to crypto ETFs on the other.
Fixed Income
Japanese 10-year government bonds rose after yields at a 17-year high helped attract solid demand at today’s auction even amid growing expectations of a 19 December rate hike. The 10-year JGB was at 1.86% while the 2-year held steady just above 1%.
Treasury steadied after falling across the curve on Monday, weighed down by weakness across other major bond markets and as investors awaited nearly $16bn of supply led by Merck’s $8bn eight‑part deal; the US 10‑year yield rose 8bp to 4.09%, marginally underperforming bunds and gilts.
Commodities
Silver trades softer after a near 21% surge over seven sessions, a move fuelled by tightening-inventory speculation and talk of potential short-covering squeezes. Profit-taking has emerged as risk sentiment stabilised—helped by a softer JPY after a well-received 10-year JGB auction—pressuring recent highflyers. Also worth noting: the XAUXAG ratio has again bounced near 73, a level that has twice in the past four years signalled a shift toward relative gold strength.
- Gold, which has behaved more like a follower than a leader in the latest upswing, has turned lower after failing to attract fresh demand above the November high at USD 4,245.
Copper climbed to a fresh record in London as supply concerns continue to dominate. The metal—central to electrification and the energy transition—briefly touched USD 11,334/t on the LME before easing with other recent in-demand metals. In the US, the HG contract jumped toward resistance near USD 5.35 before paring gains amid tariff-driven buying interest.
Oil prices held a gain as geopolitical tensions injected fresh risk premium, partly offsetting persistent supply-surplus worries. Traders weighed the impact of damage to a Black Sea export terminal while watching for Trump’s next steps on Venezuela.
Currencies
The dollar rebounded following Mondays drop that was led by weakness against the EUR and not least the JPY, both of which later gave back some of those gains, with the EURUSD trading near 1.16 from a 1.1660 high on Monday.
The yen lost altitude again following Monday’s rate hike focused rally with USDJPY at 155.75 reclaimed most of what was lost in yesterday’s session when traders ramped up bets on a Bank of Japan rate hike on 19 December
