Market drivers and catalysts
Equities: U.S. and Europe rallied on easing oil fears, while Asia ended mixed as Japan and Korea paused after a strong relief run.
Volatility: VIX subdued, Hormuz risk, earnings focus
Digital Assets: BTC steady ETH softer; IBIT leads; ETHA supported
Fixed Income: US treasury yields rebounded Monday with oil prices, Japan’s yields dropped
Currencies: US dollar stronger, Japanese yen weaker as oil prices jump Monday
Commodities: Crude oil rebounds, gold and silver drop amid renewed uncertainty over Iran peace deal.
Macro events: Middle East developments & Canada March CPI
Macro headlines
US forces seized an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman after it ignored orders while leaving Hormuz, while Iran targeted ships and claimed control of the strait, citing US violations of a ceasefire. Hopes for peace have faded despite renewed talks, and the prolonged conflict has triggered a major energy shock, stoking inflation risks and fears of a global slowdown.
Fed’s Waller said policymakers understand inflation risks and may hold rates if war-driven inflation coincides with weaker jobs. Fed’s Daly said spending remains solid, but the outlook hinges on how long oil prices and the conflict persist.
Artificial intelligence is increasingly expected to lower Britain’s level of employment during the next decade, according to a poll of executives, with entry-level roles bearing the brunt. Around half of business leaders fear net job losses across the economy, the Accenture research shows, up from a third when the survey took place two years ago.
Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)
1230 – Canada March CPI
2245 – New Zealand Q1 CPI
Earnings this week
Monday: Cleveland-Cliffs, Steel Dynamics, Alaska Air
Tuesday: UnitedHealth, GE Aerospace, RTX, 3M, Danaher, D.R. Horton
Wednesday: Boeing, Tesla, IBM, Texas Instruments, ServiceNow, Lam Research, Vertiv, AT&T, Boston Scientific
Thursday: American Express, Intel, Lockheed Martin, Honeywell, Blackstone, Comcast, Nokia, NextEra
Friday: Procter & Gamble, SLB, Charter, HCA Healthcare, AB Volvo
For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check
Saxo’s calendar.
Equities
USA: The S&P 500 rose 1.2% to 7,126.06, the Nasdaq climbed 1.5% to 24,468.48, and the Dow added 1.8% to 49,447.43, with all three helped by an 11% slide in oil after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz was open during the ceasefire. The move eased inflation worries and pushed investors back into risk assets, especially travel and cyclicals. United Airlines jumped 7.1% as lower fuel costs lifted the airline trade, while Exxon Mobil fell 3.6% and Chevron dropped 2.2% as crude tumbled. Netflix fell about 10.0% after soft second-quarter guidance. The next test is whether earnings can keep doing the heavy lifting.
Europe: The STOXX 600 gained 1.6% to 626.58, Germany’s DAX rose 2.3% to 24,702.24, France’s CAC 40 climbed 2.0% to 8,425.13, and the FTSE 100 added 0.7% to 10,667.63, as lower oil prices and hopes of de-escalation gave Europe’s import-heavy market some welcome breathing room. Travel, banks, and luxury led the rebound, while energy lagged. EasyJet rose 6.0% and IAG added 3.4% as fuel pressure eased, while BP fell 7.4% and Shell dropped 5.6% as crude reversed hard. Alstom was the outlier on the wrong side, plunging almost 30% after withdrawing its cash-flow target. Markets now watch whether diplomacy can stay alive longer than the latest relief rally.
Asia: Asia ended Friday mixed rather than uniformly cheerful. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.8% to 58,475.90 and the Topix dropped 1.4% to 3,760.81 as investors locked in gains after Thursday’s record high, while South Korea’s Kospi slipped to 6,191.92 after a strong run earlier in the week. Hong Kong and mainland China were softer as traders took profits and waited for possible U.S.-Iran talks over the weekend. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both fell in Seoul, while weak full-year results from Kweichow Moutai weighed on Chinese consumer names. TSMC stayed a key regional support after its strong earnings and higher revenue outlook, so Asia still looks like a market that wants to believe, but prefers receipts.
Volatility
Volatility remains contained, but the backdrop is still fragile. The VIX closed Friday at 17.48, a level that suggests calm markets even as headlines around the Strait of Hormuz continue to shift between open and closed, keeping oil prices and inflation expectations in focus. For investors, that matters more than the VIX itself: any sustained disruption could feed through into higher costs and renewed pressure on equities. At the same time, earnings season is picking up pace this week, shifting attention from macro risks to company results, which typically keeps index volatility contained but increases single-stock swings.
Based on current SPX options pricing, the market is implying a weekly move of around ±98 points (±1.38%) into Friday.
For today’s expiry, the options chain shows a mild upside skew, with near-the-money calls priced slightly above comparable puts, pointing to positioning that leans cautiously positive rather than defensive.
Digital Assets
Crypto markets are stabilising after recent weakness, but they continue to behave like risk assets rather than safe havens. Bitcoin is trading around $74,500 and Ether near $2,275, while major altcoins such as Solana, XRP and Dogecoin are modestly higher, recovering from last week’s geopolitics-driven sell-off.
- The ETF picture remains supportive: IBIT (+2.8%) and ETHA (+3.1%) both advanced on Friday, with flows still favouring Bitcoin more clearly than Ethereum. That divergence remains important—Bitcoin demand is holding up, while Ethereum appears more sensitive to regulatory and ecosystem-specific uncertainty.
On the equity side, crypto-linked stocks such as COIN, MSTR and the miners are rebounding more strongly, reflecting their higher sensitivity to sentiment. For investors, the message is straightforward: underlying demand remains constructive, but crypto direction is still being driven primarily by macro developments.
Fixed Income
US treasury yields rebounded Monday on the snapback rally in oil prices linked to the status of shipping flows through the Hormuz Strait. This came after a large drop in yield Friday on the huge drop steep drop in energy prices. The benchmark 2-year treasury yield rose over two basis points to 3.73% after the lowest close in more than four weeks on Friday. The benchmark 10-year treasury yield rebounded two basis points to 4.27%- near the middle of the range of the last week.
Japan’s Government Bond Yields fell Monday as front-end yields eyed the lowest close in more than two weeks as anticipation of Bank of Japan policy tightening continues to fade. The benchmark 2-year JGB yield fell below 1.36% after ending Friday above 1.37% and the benchmark 10-year JGB yield fell more than two basis points to below 3.40% Monday, eyeing its lowest close in just over a week.
Commodities
Brent crude and European natural gas prices have recovered most of Friday’s losses after hopes for an Iran–US peace deal faded amid a weekend marked by renewed tensions and confusion. Traders entered the weekend on the assumption that Iran had reopened the Strait of Hormuz, only for it to be effectively closed again within hours after the IRGC claimed a US blockade of Iran-linked vessels violated the ceasefire agreement set to expire on Tuesday. Prices extended gains after the US Navy fired upon and seized an Iranian vessel, further undermining confidence in any near-term diplomatic progress. Iranian officials have since signalled they are unlikely to participate in planned talks in Islamabad, adding to the uncertainty. Brent crude briefly touched a low near USD 86 on Friday before rebounding sharply to trade back above USD 95, with initial resistance seen around the USD 100 level.
Gold fell below USD 4,740 in early trading after reaching a one-month high near USD 4,890 on Friday, briefly wiping out last week’s gains before stabilising around USD 4,800. The latest weakness has been driven by renewed dollar strength and fresh concerns about energy-led inflation. Gold and silver, like many other commodities, remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East given the knock-on impact on the dollar, bond yields, and US rate expectations.
Chicago wheat futures rose on Monday, supported by adverse weather in key U.S. growing regions and renewed concerns that the Iran–US ceasefire may be breaking down. Ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is keeping fuel and fertiliser costs elevated - key inputs for agriculture - raising the risk of lower production over time and adding upward pressure to global food prices.
Currencies
The US dollar strengthened early Monday on the fresh jump in energy prices on concerns linked to the status of shipping through the Hormuz Strait, but faded slightly later in the session. EURUSD trades near 1.1750 after a dip as low as 1.1729 and after closing Friday at 1.1765.
USDJPY remains in the middle of the range of the last several weeks near 159.00 after dipping as low as 157.60 on Friday before rebounding to close last week at 158.64. The sharp fall in USDJPY on Friday intraday was likely linked to relief in Japan that oil prices dropped so sharply on the day, helping global bond yields lower as well.
