Market drivers and catalysts
Equities: Fresh U.S. records on Fed cut, upgrades, and deal chatter; Europe flat with banks firm and shippers weak; Asia steady as Hang Seng held flat and Japan eased on BOJ’s ETF-unwind signal
Volatility: VIX mid-teens; SPX straddle ~±1%; macro data in focus; shutdown risk
Digital Assets: BTC down >2k overnight; ETH below 4.2k; USD 449m liquidations; IBIT inflows, ETHA mixed
Fixed Income: Japan’s yields from 2 to 10 years hit new post-GFC highs
Currencies: USD remains firm, especially against weak JPY
Commodities: Silver surges to fresh 14-year high, gold near record on firm ETF demand
Macro events: US Aug. Chicago National Activity Index, Fed speaker Musalem
Macro headlines
US President Trump plans to introduce a new USD 100k fee for H-1B visas as part of the latest crackdown. The new rules are somewhat unclear, as one source said that existing visa holders would not be charged the fee, only new applicants.
Elon Musk was seen at the funeral for the recently assassinated activist Charlie Kirk, sitting next to and shaking hands with President Trump.
The UK, Canada and Australia formally recognized Palestine as an independent state in a coordinated move, a move that will be opposed by Israel and the United States.
The US Senate rejected a short-term funding bill, risking a government shutdown if no bill is passed by September 30. The Senate returns on September 29, and the House on October 7.
Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)
1230 – UK Bank of England’s Pill to speak
1230 – US Aug. Chicago National Activity Index.
1345 – ECB’s Lane to speak
1400 – Fed Voter Musalem to speak on economic outlook and the economy
1800 – UK Bank of England Governor Bailey to speak
Earnings events
Tuesday: Micron, Autozone
Wednesday: Cintas
Thursday: Costco, Accenture, H&M Hennes & Mauritz,
For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.
Equities
USA: S&P 500 +0.5%, Nasdaq 100 +0.7%, Dow +0.4% to fresh highs as the first 2025 Fed cut, solid prints, and a Trump–Xi call buoyed risk. Apple +3.2% after a J.P. Morgan upgrade and new iPhone launch; Tesla +2.2% on a Baird upgrade; FedEx +2.3% on earnings strength; Oracle +4.0% on talks for a multi-year cloud deal with Meta. Focus turns to U.S. data and whether guidance resets keep momentum after the rate move.
Europe: Eurozone gauges were little changed into the weekend: STOXX 50 +0.0%, STOXX 600 0.0% as banks outperformed while cyclicals were mixed. BNP Paribas +1.5% and Nordea +1.5% led financials on capital and buyback support, while A.P. Moller-Maersk −5.9% tracked softer freight rates. The BOJ’s signal it will unwind ETF holdings fed a cautious tone for Japan-linked exporters. Watch shipping and energy for lead-lag into quarter-end.
Asia: Tone was balanced on prior closes. Nikkei 225 −0.6% after the BOJ held rates and flagged plans to reduce ETF holdings, while Hang Seng was flat at 26,545 (0.0%) and CSI 300 +0.1% as the PBoC signaled no rush to ease. Casinos and metals helped Hong Kong: Sands China +5.2% on Macau strength; China Hongqiao +5.1% with aluminum names firmer. Eyes now on China policy signals and BOJ communication for cross-asset spillovers.
Volatility
Implied volatility in US equities has softened. The CBOE VIX is trading in the mid-teens (≈15-16), down slightly from recent days, signaling markets view near-term risk as contained. Focus now turns to key macro events — flash PMIs, durable goods, and Friday’s core PCE inflation — which could quickly shift the backdrop. Options imply about a ±1% move in the SPX for the week. A potential US government shutdown by September 30 lingers as an additional source of uncertainty.
Digital Assets
Crypto markets started the week on the back foot. Bitcoin slid over more than USD 2,000 overnight to below USD 114,000, while Ethereum dropped more than USD 200, trading below USD 4,200 this morning. Liquidations topped USD 449 million in the last 24 hours, underscoring fragile sentiment. Spot Bitcoin ETFs like IBIT still drew inflows last week, but Ethereum ETFs such as ETHA remain mixed. Solana and XRP are testing support after heavier losses, leaving macro data and ETF flows as key drivers to watch this week.
Fixed Income
US treasury yields closed last week near the top of recent range at the short end of the curve, with the benchmark 2-year treasury yield near 3.58%, while longer yields pressured higher, as the benchmark 10-year yield hit new two-week highs above 4.14% overnight. The key range that was broken on the way down comes in just below 4.20%.
Japan’s short JGB yields rose to new cycle highs and new highs since 2008, with the benchmark 2-year JGB yield rising three basis points on Friday and another basis point overnight to 0.93%. Likewise, the benchmark 10-year JGB yield reached new post-GFK highs overnight, trading 1.665% as of this writing.
Commodities
Gold trades just below USD 3700 after rising for a fifth straight week, while silver surged to new highs overnight at USD 43.69. Profit-taking following last week’s rate cut was quickly absorbed by fresh demand as traders priced in two additional cuts this year. Attention now turns to incoming data, including activity readings in Europe and Friday’s US PCE Index. ETF demand remains strong, with lower funding costs and multiple uncertainties continuing to underpin support for bullion and other investment metals.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index slipped last week, with strength in gold and other investment metals outweighed by broad losses across agriculture, led by coffee, sugar, and cocoa, while the energy sector saw diesel gains offset by weakness in crude and gasoline.
- Brent crude remains range-bound between USD 65 and 70, supported by EU sanctions targeting buyers of Russian crude, including China, alongside renewed Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.
Currencies
The US dollar firmed further on Friday and overnight, particularly against the weak pound sterling, as GBPUSD extended the sell-off well south of 1.3500. USDJPY hit new local highs overnight above 148.00 and trades not far south of its 200-day moving average at 148.62, while the range highs of the last many weeks is 149.14.
- The US dollar firmed further on Friday and overnight, particularly against the weak pound sterling, as GBPUSD extended the sell-off well south of 1.3500. USDJPY hit new local highs overnight above 148.00 and trades not far south of its 200-day moving average at 148.62, while the range highs of the last many weeks is 149.14.
