Market drivers and catalysts
Equities: US slipped on fresh China-curb headlines and chip weakness. Europe mixed. Asia softer with Hong Kong and China down
Volatility: VIX steady in high teens. Earnings in focus ahead of Friday CPI
Digital Assets: Bitcoin and Ether hold firm. ETF flows stabilise with ETHA steady and IBIT mixed
Fixed Income: Yields little changed ahead of US CPI tomorrow
Currencies: USD sideways as JPY weakens broadly again
Commodities: Crude surges as U.S. tightens pressure on Russia; gold holds above $4,000, supply squeeze lifts platinum
Macro events: Japan Sep. National CPI
Macro headlines
The Trump administration is considering restricting exports to China of items using U.S. software—like laptops and jet engines—due to Beijing's rare earth export curbs, Reuters reports. This proposal matches Trump's October 10 threat of 100% tariffs and controls on "critical software." Meanwhile, Beijing is querying U.S. semiconductor firms about their operations in China, focusing on pricing and profits, as reported by Bloomberg News.
The Trump administration sanctioned Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil to pressure Moscow to stop its war in Ukraine. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called for a ceasefire, highlighting the companies' role in funding the war. The move which includes subsidiaries marks the first time the Trump administration has imposed direct sanctions on Russia over its aggression in Ukraine.
According to a WSJ exclusive, some quantum computing companies are in talks with the Trump administration on the US government taking stakes in their company, with Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum and IonQ said to be involved discussing the government becoming a shareholder in exchange for funding for research.
- According to Bloomberg's Wasson, the US House Ways and Means Committee Chair Smith stated that lawmakers are considering a stopgap bill lasting until December 2026.
Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)
US Government data are impacted by shutdowns and are likely to be delayed
1100 – Turkey Central Bank Rate Announcement
1230 – Canada Aug. Retail Sales
1500 – US Oct. Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity
2330 – Japan Sep. National CPI
Earnings events
Today before market open: Atlas Copco, Dassault Systemes, DSV, Lloyds, T-Mobile US, Blackstone, Union Pacific, Freeport McMoRan, Valero, Honeywell
Today after market close: Intel, Newmont Mining, Ford, Norfolk Southern
Highlights for rest of week: Thu: T-Mobile, Intel, Unilever; Fri: Procter & Gamble
For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.
Equities
USA: Stocks fell as policy risk hit tech. The S&P 500 −0.5%, Nasdaq 100 −1%, and Dow −0.7% after reports the White House may curb exports to China tied to U.S. software. Netflix −10.1% on Brazil tax overhang. Texas Instruments −5.6% on weak guidance dragged peers, with Intel −3.2% and AMD −3.3%. Offsetting, Raytheon +2.9% on strong Q3 and raised outlook, while Intuitive Surgical +13.9% on robust results. Focus turns to earnings cadence and any escalation in U.S.–China controls.
Europe: Region edged lower as chips weighed while the UK outperformed. Euro Stoxx 50 −0.8% and Stoxx 600 −0.2%. FTSE 100 +0.9% as rate-cut hopes and a buyback lifted banks, with Barclays +4.3%. Infineon −2.9% on read-across from Texas Instruments. Adidas −2.9% despite stronger prelims as FX and margins stayed in focus; SAP −1.5% ahead of numbers. Investors watch guidance tone and sensitivity to U.S.–China headlines.
Asia: Prior closes were mixed to soft. Nikkei 225 was flat after setting records earlier in the week, while Hang Seng −0.9% and CSI 300 −0.3% as tech and consumer names lagged. Tencent −1.1% and Alibaba −1.9% slipped, reflecting global tech weakness and discount-heavy Singles’ Day build-up; SMIC +1.1% bucked the tape. In Taiwan, TSMC −1.4% after its update kept capex elevated. Policy signals on export controls and earnings from regional chipmakers remain the swing factors.
Volatility
Markets are on alert but not panicked. Today’s swing risk sits around US jobless claims and US existing home sales (if numbers will be released -> US Government Shutdown), with a few Fed speakers sprinkled in—each a quick pulse check before the next earnings wave. VIX is parked in the high-teens, a “watchful” zone that says investors are hedged but not bracing for a shock. Energy and geopolitics remain background noise; the bigger lever is whether growth data cools just enough to keep rate-cut hopes alive without stoking slowdown fears.
SPX options price an expected move of ~±37 points (~0.55%) into today’s close.
Digital Assets
Crypto looks steadier after a choppy stretch. Bitcoin is hovering near ~$109k and ether around ~$3.85k, tracking broader risk tone more than on-chain stories. After several soft sessions, US spot Bitcoin ETFs showed signs of stabilising flows, while Ether ETFs are still drawing selective interest—IBIT choppy; ETHA comparatively firmer.
For investors, the read-through is simple: macro still sets direction (rates, growth, dollar). Watch weekend headlines and any banking-sector tremor—those have been the fastest catalysts for crypto swings this month.
Fixed Income
US treasury yields were little changed yesterday, with yields at the front end of the curve about a basis point lower and at the back end of the curve a basis point higher after a firm auction of 20-year treasury notes and ahead of the delayed US September CPI release this Friday.
US high-yield debt came under pressure yesterday amidst a defensive tone in risk sentiment, with the Bloomberg measure of high yield spreads to US treasuries rising three basis points to 291 basis points.
Commodities
Crude prices jumped after the U.S. imposed sanctions on Russia’s largest oil producers—a dramatic policy shift aimed at pressuring Moscow by choking revenue from two of the Kremlin’s key cash generators. Refineries in China and India will now be forced to seek alternative suppliers to avoid exclusion from the Western banking system and dollar access. Even before this move, traders had begun questioning the prevailing supply-glut narrative, and with sentiment shifting, recently established short positions could come under pressure if Brent breaks above USD 65.
Gold continues to consolidate, with support around USD 4,000 holding as heightened geopolitical risks offset renewed dollar strength. Monday’s correction triggered the biggest one-day outflow from bullion-backed ETFs since May. Silver remains supported above USD 47.80, while platinum saw its strongest one-day gain in London since 2020—echoing silver’s recent squeeze amid a tightening supply outlook.
U.S. soybean exports to China have ground to a halt, with no new sales or shipments expected in the coming weeks, according to industry sources. Newly harvested beans are being diverted to storage rather than export hubs, as China continues to favor South American suppliers amid ongoing trade tensions with Washington. Much now depends on the outcome of upcoming U.S.-China talks, as a prolonged export freeze risks driving some American farmers toward financial distress.
Currencies
The US dollar is little changed after a further rally yesterday was lightly rebuffed, trading near 1.1600, although USDJPY is back well above 152.00 again amidst widespread JPY weakness – trading 152.32 after reaching as high as 152.57 overnight and ahead of Japan’s September CPI report in Japan’s Friday session late tonight (2330 GMT).
EURNOK continued to drop yesterday as oil prices surged, with the pair trading near 11.62 this morning, eyeing the low from earlier this month at 11.59 and then the September low and low since June just below 11.54.
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