Market drivers and catalysts
Equities: US extended records; Europe slipped on autos and M&A noise; Asia mixed as Hong Kong softened into typhoon disruptions and China held LPR
Volatility: Powell speech • Shutdown risk • VIX mid-teens • SPX ±22pt
Digital Assets: BTC/ETH stabilizing • ETF inflows • US crypto policy shift • ETHA under watch
Currencies: USD weakens, especially against broadly firmer Euro.
Commodities: Another record high in gold. Crude lower despite threats to Russian supply
Fixed Income: US Treasury yields creep higher. Treasury to auction 2-year notes today.
- Macro events: Eurozone, UK & US September Flash PMI
Macro headlines
Trump’s newly appointed Fed Govenor Stephen Miran said that current Fed policy is 'very restrictive' and risks the Fed's employment mandate. He suggested the Fed funds rate should be in the mid-2% range, nearly 2 percentage points lower than the current level.
Euro Area consumer confidence improved to -14.9 in September 2025, surpassing expectations of -15.3, driven by lower borrowing costs and easing inflation. EU consumer sentiment increased 0.5 points to -14.3, but fiscal uncertainty and trade tariffs remain concerns.
Canada's industrial producer prices rose 0.5% in August, below the expected 0.9%. Increases in chemical, meat, dairy, vehicle, and metal prices led the rise, while lower energy prices moderated it. Excluding energy, the IPPI rose 0.7%. Meat, fish, and dairy prices climbed 1.9%, driven by beef, veal (+5.2%), and chicken (+2.1%).
Australia's Composite PMI dropped to 52.1 in September from 55.5 in August, the lowest in three months but still indicating expansion. Output growth in manufacturing and services slowed, with goods new orders contracting at an eight-month high and US tariffs impacting export demand.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to -0.12 in August 2025, the highest in five months, up from -0.28 in July, indicating increased economic growth. Improvements were seen in production and employment indicators, while personal consumption and housing showed a slight decline.
Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)
0715 – France Flash Sep. Manufacturing and Services PMI
0730 – Germany Flash Sep. Manufacturing and Services PMI
0800 – Eurozone Flash Sep. Manufacturing and Services PMI
0830 – UK Flash Sep. PMIs
1345 – US Sep. S&P Global PMIs
1350 – Trump speaks at the UN General Assembly
1700 – US Treasury to auction 2-year notes
Earnings events
Today: Micron, Autozone
Wednesday: Cintas
Thursday: Costco, Accenture, H&M Hennes & Mauritz,
For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.
Equities
USA: S&P 500 +0.4%, Nasdaq 100 +0.7%, Dow +0.1%. Tech led after headlines around AI. Nvidia +3.9% on reports it may invest up to $100bn in OpenAI, while Oracle +6.3% after naming two co-CEOs and highlighting cloud/AI traction. Apple +4.3% on strong iPhone 17 demand reads. Defensive tape in healthcare as Kenvue −7.5% after the White House linked Tylenol to autism, a claim rejected by medical bodies. Focus turns to Fedspeak and Friday’s PCE.
Europe: STOXX 50 −0.3%, STOXX 600 −0.1%; FTSE 100 +0.1%, DAX −0.5%. Autos dragged after Porsche cut its profit outlook and delayed an EV launch, sending Porsche −7.2%, Volkswagen −6.6%, and Stellantis over −2%. Banks were softer as BBVA −2.7% after lifting its Sabadell bid to €17bn, while semicap strength helped tone with ASML +2.2%. Watch ECB speakers and any follow-through from auto guidance resets.
Asia: Tone mixed on policy and weather. Nikkei 225 +0.6% as chips and a firmer risk tone supported Japan, while Hang Seng −0.8% to 26,344 ahead of Super Typhoon Ragasa flight suspensions and Hong Kong CPI. BYD −2.2% after Berkshire Hathaway exited, and Kuaishou eased, adding to pressure across tech and consumer. The PBoC kept the 1-year and 5-year LPR at 3.0% and 3.5% for a fourth month, keeping a floor under mainland rates as growth support remains targeted.
Volatility
Markets remained cautiously positioned as volatility indicators picked up following Monday’s minor equity bounce. The VIX rose to 16.10 (+4.21%), while VIX1D dropped sharply to 9.15 (−14.08%) after Friday’s spike. Traders are eyeing Fed Chair Powell’s speech today (18:35 CET) and President Trump’s remarks (15:50 CET) for directional cues, with shutdown risks into Sep 30 still supporting hedge demand. VIX futures held steady, and the VVIX index climbed nearly +3%, reflecting higher demand for volatility protection. Expect low-tier macro data to keep sentiment headline-driven.
SPX options imply a ±22-point move today (~0.33%), suggesting relatively calm trading unless policy surprises emerge.
Digital Assets
Crypto markets are stabilizing after Monday’s sharp correction, with BTC ~$112.7k and ETH ~$4.19k holding above overnight lows. Liquidations topped $1.5B, but ETF flows remain supportive: IBIT and ETHA saw consistent inflows over the past week, contributing to a four-week streak totaling $3.9B into Bitcoin ETFs. ETHA’s NAV dropped −6.9% on Sep 22, but spot demand remains strong.
- Regulatory developments add tailwinds—US lawmakers are urging the SEC to fast-track crypto access in retirement plans, while bipartisan support grows for a digital asset market framework. SOL and XRP are also rebounding in line with broader sentiment.
Fixed Income
US treasury yields climbed again yesterday, with the benchmark 2-year treasury yield this morning at a more than two-week high near 3.60% and the benchmark 10-year treasury yield also climbing to a new local high, trading near 4.15% this morning. The significant level higher is the 4.19-4.20% that was the low of the prior range from early May through early September.
US high yield credit spreads have tightened significantly in recent session, with the Bloomberg high yield credit spread to US treasuries we track tightening three basis points to 259 basis points yesterday. The cycle low for this measure was 253 basis points back in November of last year, which in turn is the lowest level measured since 2007, where the modern low of 233 basis points was established.
Commodities
Gold recorded another all-time high, having gained almost 9% this month, supported by strong ETF demand amid lower funding costs, and a range of uncertainties, including Fed independence, geopolitical risks, and US fiscal debt concerns. While bullion trades up 41% year-to-date, an ETF tracking major miners has gained 119%. Silver, meanwhile, has surged 13% this month (50% YTD) and is currently heading for the second-highest monthly close on record behind USD 47.90, which was reached in April 2011.
Copper steadied as supply risks mounted, with Freeport’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia halted for two weeks after an accident, and Codelco’s El Teniente facing extended delays following July’s deadly tunnel collapse. A prolonged suspension at these—the world’s two largest mines—could quickly tighten the global copper market.
Crude dropped for a fifth day, but overall remains stuck in relatively tight ranges, with rising global supplies more than offsetting EU curbs on Russian supply and new US sanctions targeting oil entities in China and India.
Currencies
The US dollar eased lower again yesterday, with EURUSD rising back to trade as high as 1.1820 overnight after yesterday’s 1.1726 low, settling closer to 1.1800 in early European hours today. Much of that was down to euro strength as the yen and sterling were also weak on the day, if slightly less so than the greenback.
The Canadian dollar was the weakest of the G10 currencies yesterday. A group of US Republicans warned Canadian PM Carney that Canada’s recognition of Palestine’s statehood could lead to “punitive measures in response”.
