Market drivers and catalysts
Equities: US fell on higher oil and tech weakness, Europe steadied on earnings, while Asia was mixed as Korea outperformed.
Volatility: VIX holding near 19 as oil and geopolitical risks keep markets cautious
Digital Assets: Bitcoin steady but not leading, supported by IBIT inflows while ETHA sees outflows
Fixed Income: Global yields back up on higher crude oil prices
Currencies: US dollar grinds higher, with USDJPY approaching key 160.00 level.
Commodities: Crude gains, natural gas tumbles, while fertilizer shortages and El Niño raise crop concerns
Macro events: Germany April IFO Business Climate & US April University of Michigan Sentiment
Macro headlines
Japan’s annual inflation rose to 1.5% in March 2026 from 1.3% in February, driven by higher transport and household item costs. Food inflation eased to 3.6%, while electricity and gas prices fell further on subsidies. Core inflation picked up to 1.8%, still below the 2% target. Month-on-month, CPI increased 0.4%, the strongest rise since January 2025.
Trump’s Truth Social posts and decision to maintain a naval blockade of Iranian ports have hindered prospects for renewed talks with Tehran. The US-Iran ceasefire and the Israel-Lebanon truce were both extended, but disruptions have sharply reduced Middle East oil and gas shipments, tightening global supply.
The S&P Global flash US Composite PMI rose to 52 in April 2026 from 50.3 in March, indicating modest growth. Services activity was weak despite a move back into expansion, while manufacturing saw its strongest output gain in four years, partly from stockpiling. Input costs and supply delays hit their worst since mid-2022, triggering the largest jump in selling prices since July 2022, and employment increased only slightly.
US initial jobless claims rose by 6,000 to 214,000 in the week ending April 18, near expectations. Continuing claims edged up by 12,000 to 1.821 million. Both remain below last year’s averages, consistent with low layoff levels. Federal employee claims fell by 60 to 452.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.20 in March 2026 from +0.03 in February, its weakest since November 2025, as production, sales, and consumption/housing turned negative, partly offset by slightly stronger employment indicators.
Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)
0600 - UK March Retail Sales
0800 – Germany April IFO Business Climate
1230 – Canada Feb. Retail Sales
1400 – US Final April University of Michigan Sentiment
Earnings this week
Today: Procter & Gamble, SLB, Charter, HCA Healthcare, AB Volvo
Next week
Monday: Verizon, Advantest, Cadence Design Systems, Nucor
Tuesday: Visa, Coca-Cola, Novartis, T-Mobile US, Airbus, Booking Holdings, S&P Global, Seagate Technology, BP, Starbucks, Spotify, Atlas Copco, UPS, Robinhood, Mondelez, General Motors, Bloom Energy
Wednesday: Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon.com, Meta, AbbVie, AstraZeneca, TotalEnergies, Amphenol, Carvana, General Dynamics
Thursday: Apple, Samsung Electronics, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Caterpillar, Merck, Amgen, Sandisk, Western Digital, Tokyo Electron, Royal Caribbean Cruises
Friday: ExxonMobil, Chevron, Linde, Mitsubishi
For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.
Equities
USA: The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 7,108.40 on Thursday, while the Nasdaq 100 lost 0.6% and the Dow Jones dropped 0.4%, as rising oil prices revived concern that the Middle East conflict could keep the Strait of Hormuz closed for longer. Technology led the weakness, with ServiceNow plunging 17.8% after cutting its full-year forecast. Lockheed Martin fell 4.7% after earnings declined more than expected. After the close, Intel jumped about 20% after guiding for June-quarter revenue of USD 13.8 billion to USD 14.8 billion, well above expectations, giving chip investors something less gloomy to chew on.
Europe: European equities ended slightly higher, with the Stoxx Europe 600 edging up to 614.20 as investors balanced Middle East risks against a busy earnings day. The FTSE 100 fell 0.2% to 10,457.01 and the DAX slipped 0.2% to 24,155.45, while Switzerland’s SMI rose 1.4% and broke a three-day losing streak. Nestle gained 5.9% after coffee and snack demand helped sales beat expectations, while L’Oreal rose after reporting its strongest quarterly sales growth in two years. The session showed the old market truth: good earnings can still talk, even when oil is shouting.
Asia: Asian markets were mixed on Friday as Middle East uncertainty kept risk appetite uneven, while Korea stood out on stronger domestic data and chip earnings. South Korea’s Kospi opened 0.3% higher at 6,496.10 after rising 0.9% on Thursday to 6,475.81, supported by SK Hynix’s earnings beat and stronger-than-expected first-quarter economic growth. Samsung shares set another record, helped by continued optimism around memory and artificial intelligence demand. Japan was softer, with Nikkei futures down 0.2% at 59,050 as the yen traded near 159.74 per dollar. Investors now watch whether higher oil starts to bite into margins across the region.
Volatility
Volatility is still relatively contained, but the tone has clearly shifted from calm to cautious. The VIX closed at 19.31 on Thursday, moving higher alongside a modest equity pullback, as investors reacted to renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and a sharp rise in oil prices above $100. At the same time, markets are looking ahead to a heavy macro and earnings week, with central bank decisions (Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ) and major tech earnings likely to act as key volatility triggers rather than today’s data alone.
SPX options pricing currently implies an expected move of about 45.7 points (0.64%) into today’s 24 April expiry. The options market also shows a clear defensive tilt: near-the-money puts are trading around 23–24% implied volatility, versus roughly 17–18% for calls, meaning investors are still paying significantly more for downside protection than for upside exposure. This gap suggests that, despite markets being near highs, there is still underlying demand for insurance rather than outright risk-taking.
Digital Assets
Digital assets are trading with a softer tone, reflecting the same cautious mood seen in broader markets. Bitcoin is hovering around $77,800, Ethereum near $2,315, and XRP around $1.43, with most major tokens slightly lower on the day as geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices weigh on overall risk appetite. The key takeaway is that crypto is not trading in isolation — it is moving alongside macro sentiment rather than leading it.
ETF flows remain the main stabilising force. Bitcoin ETFs, led by IBIT, continue to attract steady inflows, extending a multi-day positive streak and reinforcing institutional demand. In contrast, Ethereum ETFs — including ETHA — have seen renewed outflows, signalling weaker conviction in ETH relative to BTC for now. Beneath the surface, alt-coins like Solana remain under pressure, and crypto-linked equities such as Coinbase and MicroStrategy are also softer, reflecting a more selective and less confident risk environment rather than a broad risk-on phase.
Fixed Income
US treasury yields backed up further on Thursday as crude oil prices rose on fresh uncertainty on the outlook for global supplies, spiking inflation concerns. The benchmark 2-year treasury rose four basis points Thursday to close near 3.84% while the benchmark 10-year treasury yield rose as much as five basis points Thursday to 4.35% dropped back to 4.33% in later trading.
Commodities
As the Middle East crisis continues, and with it the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Bloomberg Commodity Index is heading for a weekly gain of more than 3%, lifting its year-to-date return above 25%. The advance has been supported by renewed strength across the energy sector, where all components except US natural gas are higher, delivering an 11% gain. Together with broad, albeit modest, gains across agriculture, this has more than offset a near 5% loss in precious metals, while industrial metals have traded mixed. Fuel products have led the advance, not least gas oil and diesel, followed by soybean oil, wheat and coffee. Gold, silver and natural gas have been the biggest drags on overall performance.
US natural gas futures tumbled after a six-day winning streak, with the May contract slumping to $2.57 after the EIA reported a bigger-than-expected 103 bcf weekly injection into domestic stockpiles. Inventories rose to 2,063 bcf, leaving them 7.1% above the five-year average. The stock build reinforced concerns about oversupply, driven by mild seasonal weather and soft demand, even as drillers have started curbing activity in response to weaker prices.
Oil trades higher for a fifth day, with no apparent end in sight to the Middle East stalemate as the US and Iran continue to block access through the Strait of Hormuz. The disruption threatens to further delay flows of crude, fuel, chemicals, metals and fertilizers from the Persian Gulf. Even a full reopening may still leave flows taking several months to normalize, creating additional tightness, especially in diesel and jet fuel, and forcing countries and companies to curb demand. Meanwhile, US shale executives appear in no hurry to increase production despite higher prices, given heightened uncertainty over the outcome of the war and current market volatility.
Agriculture: adding to the current fertilizer shortage, which has already raised concerns about global crop yields, NOAA confirms that ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to persist through June 2026 before transitioning to an El Niño from July with a +60% probability - raising the risk of droughts and floods in key producing regions, depending on location.
Currencies
The US dollar edged higher, perhaps in part on the fresh rise in crude oil prices and US treasury yields. EURUSD pushed back below 1.1700 Thursday in its continuing slide from 1.1851 highs last week. USDJPY remains in a remarkably compressed range , but has pulled back close to the 160.00 level (159.84 high in Asian trading hours Friday) widely seen as likely to bring attention from Japanese officialdom and possibly intervention to prevent further JPY weakening.
AUDUSD dipped to its lowest level in over a week to just below 0.7120 late Thursday, trading 0.7127 in early trading Friday, while its fellow Antipodean NZD fell more sharply despite a strong reset higher in short NZ yields in anticipation of incoming RBNZ rate hikes after a strong Q1 CPI print earlier this week. NZDUSD dropped back as low as 0.5840 early Friday after dropping from north of 0.5920 Thursday.
The high oil and gas prices have sent EURNOK to new three-year lows below 10.90 and NOKSEK to a new high since late 2024 as that exchange rate nears parity, trading 0.9929 early Thursday.
