Market drivers and catalysts
Equities: Stocks fell in the U.S. and Europe on AI and tariff worries, while Hong Kong rebounded on China optimism
Volatility: VIX above 21, tariff uncertainty, consumer confidence risk
Digital Assets: Crypto softer, IBIT and ETHA outflows, institutional de-risking, macro-driven tone
Fixed Income: US treasuries rally amidst weak risk sentiment
Currencies: USD broadly firmer while JPY weakens
Commodities: Gold and silver cool Tuesday after Monday rally extension
Macro events: US Feb. Consumer Confidence, Australia Jan. CPI
Macro headlines
The EU has paused trade talks with the US and will maintain the current deal for now. President Trump warned that any attempts to play games would lead to higher tariffs.
US manufactured goods orders dropped 0.7% to $617.5 billion in December 2025, close to expectations. Durable goods fell 1.4%, mainly due to lower transportation equipment orders. Increases were seen in computers, machinery, and metals. Nondurable goods orders were stable at $297.6 billion.
The Dallas Fed's Texas manufacturing index increased to 0.2 in February 2026, showing stable conditions. Employment growth continued, workweeks lengthened, and wage growth surged. Manufacturers remain optimistic, with future production rising and business activity slightly dipping.
Mexico’s economic activity index grew 3.3% year-on-year in December 2025, rebounding from a November dip, driven by an 11.4% surge in the primary sector. Services rose 3.2%, while the secondary sector expanded 2.4%. Monthly activity increased by 0.4%
Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)
1315 – US Weekly ADP Employment Change
1330 – US Feb. Philadelphia Non-Manufacturing Activity
1400 – US Dec. House Price Index
1415 – UK Bank of England officials to speak, including Governor Bailey
1500 – US Feb. Richmond Fed Manufacturing
1500 – US Feb. Consumer Confidence
1530 – US Feb. Dallas Fed Services Activity
1800 – US Treasury to auction 2-year notes
0030 – Australia Jan. CPI
Earnings this week
Today: Home Depot, Mercado Libre, EOG Resources, Leonardo SpA, American Tower Corporation, HP, Workday, Axon, First Solar
Wednesday: Nvidia, HSBC Holdings, JX Companies, Lowes Companies, Iberdrola, Synopsys, NU Holdings, Snowflake, E.ON, Bayer, Diageo, Zoom Communications
Thursday: Deutsche Telekom, Salesforce, Schneider Electric, Rolls Royce Holdings, Intuit, AXA, Monster Beverage, Dell Technologies, Coreweave, Rocket Lab
Friday: BASF, Holcim, Swiss Re
For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.
Equities
USA: U.S. stocks fell Monday: the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.7% to 48,804.06, the S&P 500 fell 1.0% to 6,837.75, and the Nasdaq Composite slid 1.1% to 22,627.27. Selling focused on AI (artificial intelligence) disruption fears after a viral Citrini Research scenario, alongside renewed tariff uncertainty. IBM sank 13.2% after AI start-up Anthropic said its Claude Code could speed up COBOL, an older programming language, while Nvidia rose 0.9% ahead of earnings. Eli Lilly climbed 4.8% after Novo Nordisk obesity data disappointed, and PayPal gained 5.8% on takeover talk. Investors looked ahead to Nvidia results, tariff headlines, and whether winter-storm disruptions would show up in upcoming data.
Europe: European shares ended mostly lower: the Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.5% to 627.7 and Germany’s DAX slipped 1.1% to 24,991.97, while Britain’s FTSE 100 was flat at 10,684.74 and Italy’s FTSE MIB rose 0.5% to 46,699.29. Tariff uncertainty returned after the U.S. raised a new global duty, and the AI-disruption theme weighed on software and payments. SAP fell 3.4% and Adyen lost 5.4% as investors questioned pricing power, while Enel jumped 6.8% on its 2026 to 2028 plan and a €1 billion buyback. Novo Nordisk fell 16.5% after its CagriSema clinical trial underperformed Eli Lilly's tirzepatide. Investors looked ahead to any fresh trade signals and the next wave of company updates to test earnings resilience.
Asia: Hong Kong led the region higher: the Hang Seng Index rose 2.5% to 27,081.91 as traders priced in a lower tariff burden for China after the U.S. court ruling. Japan was closed for the Emperor’s Birthday and mainland China stayed shut for the Lunar New Year break, keeping volumes light elsewhere. Alibaba gained 3.5% and Tencent added 3.1% on renewed appetite for China tech, while chipmaker SMIC surged 5.0% as optimism around domestic AI development returned. Focus shifted to China’s market reopen and the National People’s Congress starting March 5, with Trump also set to visit China March 31 to April 2.
Volatility
Volatility remains elevated after yesterday’s selloff, with the VIX closing at 21.01 on 23 February, while the S&P 500 fell 1.04%. Short-dated measures remain firm as well, reflecting continued demand for near-term protection. Markets are navigating a mix of softer risk sentiment and policy uncertainty. US consumer confidence is due today, and any surprise could influence expectations around growth and interest rates. At the same time, renewed uncertainty around US tariff policy continues to act as an overhang for global equities, currencies, and commodities.
- SPX expected move (week): options pricing implies roughly ±118 points (±1.73%) into 27 February.
0DTE skew check (today’s expiry): near-the-money calls appear priced relatively richer than puts in today’s chain, suggesting investors are willing to pay up for upside exposure or protection against a sharp rebound.
Digital Assets
Crypto markets are trading softer alongside broader risk assets. In the latest snapshot, bitcoin trades near $63,100 (-2.3%), while ether is around $1,820 (-1.8%). Other major tokens such as solana and xrp are also modestly lower on the day.
Institutional flows remain under pressure. On 23 February, US spot bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $203.8 million in net outflows, led by IBIT (-$116.4 million). US spot ethereum ETFs saw roughly $49.5 million in net outflows, with ETHA accounting for about -$45.4 million. ETF price action reflects this caution, with IBIT and ETHA both weaker in the latest session.
The broader tone remains macro-driven. As long as tariff uncertainty and equity volatility persist, higher-beta digital assets are likely to trade in line with overall risk appetite rather than on standalone crypto narratives. Participation remains, but conviction appears selective.
Fixed Income
US treasuries rallied Monday amidst weak risk sentiment as the 2-year yield eased a couple of basis points lower within the recent range, while longer dated treasuries rallied sharply. As one point the benchmark 10-year yield tested the recent cycle low below 4.02% before rebounding to finish the day at 4.03%, down five basis points from Friday’s close.
US High yield debt came under pressure on weak risk sentiment, with the Bloomberg measure we track of high yield spread to US treasury yields ending Monday 10 basis points wider to match the widest level of the year at 280 basis points.
Japanese government bonds rallied at the open of trading Monday, but sold off from intraday strength, with 2-year to 10-year benchmark yields trading at only about a basis point lower relative to the Friday close by late Tokyo hours Tuesday after a Monday holiday.
Commodities
Gold and silver pulled back Tuesday in Asia after an extension of the sharp rally on Monday to new local highs, with spot gold prices near 5175 per ounce in the wake of a 5,250 high and silver seeing less consolidation, near 87.9 after a high just above 89 per ounce.
Crude oil continues to trade nervously near the multi-month highs as the world awaits what will happen now that the US has assembled an enormous military presence near Iran, with talks on Iran’s nuclear programme set for Thursday. April WTI poked back higher to 66.80 early Tuesday after dipping below 66/bbl on Monday, while April Brentt trades near 72.00 per barrel early Tuesday.
Currencies
The US dollar firmed and the Japanese dipped broadly in quiet trading Monday and into Tuesday’s Asian session, with EURUSD trading near 1.1775 after rejecting the rally above 1.1820 in Monday’s session, while USDJPY pulled above 155.25 after a dip as low as 154.00 on Monday.
AUDNZD trades near the highs of more than 12 years at 1.0850 and AUDUSD dipped rejected Monday’s ralyl to a 0.7110+ local high ahead of Australia’s January CPI data set for release early Wednesday, which could be key for the odds and timing of an eventual RBA follow-up rate hike in May (very low odds of March move currently)
