Market drivers and catalysts
Equities: Wall Street rebounded on rising December cut odds, Europe slipped again on tech and defence selling, Asia ended the week weaker
Volatility: VIX lower, macro-heavy week ahead, SPX weekly move ±135
Digital assets: BTC stabilising, ETF outflows persist, ETH firmer, alt-coins cautious
Currencies: JPY a bit weaker again after firming sharply Friday. USD flat, sterling firms ahead of key budget statement.
Commodities: Broad losses last week led by energy amid peace talks; gold holds above support.
Fixed Income: US yields edge lower as odds of December rate cut rise
Macro events: Germany Nov IFO Business Climate & Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity
Macro headlines
New York Fed President John Williams signalled scope to lower rates in the near term as the labour market softens, citing rising employment risks, easing inflation risks, and modestly restrictive policy, prompting investors to raise December cut odds to about 70% from roughly 35%.
US consumer sentiment as at record lows in November, according to the final Nov. University of Michigan Sentiment survey, although the sentiment numbers were slightly improved relative the preliminary release of the survey. Still, current conditions are at a record low and personal finances worst since 2009, as high prices, softer incomes, and job-loss risk (highest since July 2020) darkened the outlook.
US officials are in early talks about allowing Nvidia to sell H200 AI chips to China, with no decision and licence approvals still required, and some in the Trump administration viewing it as a compromise concession to Beijing likely to face strong opposition from China hawks.
US-Ukrainian talks in Geneva made progress toward a deal, with the two sides drafting “an updated and refined peace framework” and agreeing to continue intensive work on joint proposals, while US Sec of State Rubio said Trump’s proposed Nov. 27 deadline to secure Ukraine’s support for a US-backed peace plan isn’t set in stone
Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)
US Government data are impacted by shutdowns and are likely to be delayed
0900 – Germany Nov IFO Business Climate
1530 – Dallas Fed Nov Manufacturing Activity
Earnings events
Today: Prosus, Naspers, Alimentation Couche Tard, Agilent
Tuesday: Analog Devices, Dell Technologies, Autodesk, Workday, Compass Group, Zscaler
Wednesday: Deere
For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.
Equities
USA: US stocks bounced on Friday as rate-cut hopes overshadowed ongoing worries about expensive AI names. The Dow rose 1.1%, the S&P 500 1.0% and the Nasdaq 0.9% after New York Fed President John Williams said policy is moving toward neutral and futures put the odds of a December cut close to 70%. Alphabet jumped about 3.5% on renewed enthusiasm around its Gemini 3 artificial intelligence model and data centre investment plans, while Intuit and Ross Stores gained roughly 4.0% and 8.4% respectively after strong earnings updates. Later in the session investors again faded AI hardware leaders, with Nvidia down 1.0% and Oracle off 5.7% as valuation worries persisted, even though Nvidia ticked higher after hours on reports the Trump administration may allow H200 chip sales to China.
Europe: European equities retreated on Friday, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 1.0% while the broader Stoxx 600 also closed lower, extending what data now show is the steepest weekly fall since early in the year. Renewed concern over AI and tech valuations hit cyclicals, as ASML fell around 6% and Infineon lost 3.7% alongside wider chip weakness. Defence stocks reversed sharply on headlines about a possible US-backed peace framework for Ukraine, with Rheinmetall down 7.4%, Leonardo 6.2% and BAE Systems 2.4%. Flash purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs, a monthly activity survey) showed euro area services still expanding but at a slower pace, while German manufacturing stayed in contraction, reinforcing a cautious tone ahead of December’s European Central Bank meeting.
Asia: Asian markets closed the week on a soft note as global AI jitters spilled over into regional tech. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 2.4% on Friday and 3.5% for the week, dragged lower by a 10.9% slide in SoftBank and heavy selling in semiconductor-related names. On the mainland, the CSI 300 index dropped 2.4% as growth worries and lingering property stress kept domestic sentiment fragile. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slumped 2.4% to 25,220, down 5.1% on the week, with the tech sub-index off just over 3% and major decliners including JD Health (-8.5%), SMIC (-6.3%) and Galaxy Entertainment (-4.3%) as investors cut risk into a busy macro and policy calendar.
Volatility
Volatility eased to start the week, with the VIX slipping to 23.4, down more than 11%, while near-term measures (VIX1D and VIX9D) also pulled back sharply. The move reflects calmer conditions after last week’s unusually wide price swings, helped by a stronger close on Friday and a steady session in Asian and European markets this morning. For investors, the focus now shifts to a dense macro calendar: US consumer confidence on Tuesday, followed by GDP, PCE inflation, jobless claims and durable goods on Wednesday before the US Thanksgiving break. These data points could shape expectations for December’s Fed meeting, where markets still lean toward rate cuts despite mixed signals from officials.
- Options pricing for this Friday’s SPX expiry implies an expected weekly move of around ±135 points (≈2%) from the 6,600 level.
Daily skew indicator: calls around 6,600 continue to price slightly higher implied volatility than comparable puts (~25% vs ~21%), reflecting cautious demand for upside exposure after last week’s reversal.
Digital Assets
Crypto markets start the week mixed but stabilising. Bitcoin trades near $86,900, little changed overnight but still well below early-November levels after a steep correction. ETF flows remain the main pressure point: US spot bitcoin ETFs have seen four consecutive weeks of net outflows, totalling more than $4 billion, with IBIT leading withdrawals last week. Sentiment remains fragile as investors weigh whether these outflows represent capitulation or a pause in institutional demand.
- Ethereum trades near $2,835, outperforming BTC today, while ETHA continues to see soft flows and remains down over 3% on Friday’s session. Among major alt-coins, XRP and Solana show modest gains but remain range-bound after recent declines. Broader crypto sentiment continues to track global risk appetite, making this week’s US inflation and growth data particularly relevant for near-term direction.
Fixed Income
US Treasuries rallied on rising odds of a December rate cut (now about 65% probability after sub-30% likelihood recently) after rhetoric from Fed officials Friday, with the benchmark US 2-year treasury yield dropping over two basis points to just below 3.51%, the lowest since late October, while the benchmark 10-year yield closed about two basis points lower as well at 4.063%
Commodities
The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index slipped 1.4% last week, its first decline in six weeks, as fading risk appetite triggered broad losses across the complex. Energy led the setback, with crude and fuel products under pressure as traders weighed the potential supply implications of a Ukraine–Russia peace deal that could add barrels to an already well-supplied market and ease tightness in refined products. Metals held up comparatively well. Copper, silver and gold posted only modest declines, with gold maintaining support above USD 4,000 and HG copper holding above USD 5. Agriculture fell 0.7%, dragged lower by cocoa, cattle, corn, and coffee.
Gold steadied as investors evaluated the prospect of another Fed rate cut after NY Fed President John Williams signalled there may be room to lower borrowing costs amid a softening labour market, even as other officials struck a more cautious tone. The uptrend from the October correction low continues to offer support near USD 4,030. Silver trades mid-range around USD 50, with the short-term technical outlook constrained by a double top near USD 54.50.
- Crude and fuel prices weakened again last week as even a slim prospect of a Ukraine–Russia peace deal shifted focus toward the risk of additional barrels entering an already well-supplied market. This comes just as US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil take effect, a development that recently helped tighten product markets, particularly diesel. Overall, Brent remains capped below USD 65, with bulls struggling to build a convincing short-term case for higher prices.
Currencies
The JPY rallied late Friday, reversing some of the sharp weakening in the currency of late ahead of a three-day weekend in Japan, with markets closed there today. USDJPY dipped as slow as 156.20 after the Thursday peak of 157.89, while EURJPY tested below 180 late Friday before rebounding to 180.50 area in today’s Asian session.
- Elsewhere, the US dollar saw little volatility, with a small nudge to new highs in the dollar index (and a test below 1.1500 in EURUSD) rejected Friday amidst rangebound trading that ended the day almost unchanged.
Sterling firmed slightly ahead of the autumn budget statement this Wednesday, with considerable talk swirling of a challenge to PM Starmer’s leadership of the Labour party as it is seeing record low support in political polling – sub 20%. EURGBP levels of 0.8750 and 0.8840 bear watching after the budget announcement, as the market will focus on the level of trust in the UK gilt market as Chancellor Reeves seeks to reduce the country’s yawning fiscal deficit.
