Market drivers and catalysts
- Equities: US, European and Asian stocks rose as AI enthusiasm stayed the main driver across semiconductors, software and China tech.
- Volatility: VIX subdued, macro data ahead, payrolls focus
- Digital Assets: Bitcoin stabilises, ETF outflows persist, IBIT and ETHA weak
- Fixed Income: US Treasuries trade broadly steady
- Currencies: USD remains supported with focus on USDJPY as 160 is tested once agains
- Commodities: Crude oil is trading higher for a third consecutive session, copper near record
- Macro events: US April Factory Orders, May ISM Services & Fed Beige Book
Macro headlines
- Iranian media questioned the talks’ progress, despite Trump saying they continue, as Washington now seeks written Iranian commitments on nuclear concessions under a preliminary conflict-ending framework that had previously rested on verbal assurances. The US and Israel have very different ideas about what an end to the war should look like, with Tehran insisting that Lebanon must be part of any peace agreement, and this divide is jeopardizing the fragile negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
- US JOLTS beat: US job openings rose to 7.618 million in April, well above the 7.0 million consensus and up from 6.887 million in March, reinforcing a hawkish read on the Fed's rate path.
- US job quits fell to 2.98 million in April 2026, the lowest since mid-2020, with the quits rate down to 1.9%, signaling fewer workers voluntarily leaving jobs.
- Eurozone inflation rose to 3.2% y/y in May 2026 from 3.0%, the highest since September 2023 and above the ECB’s 2% target. Energy prices surged 10.9% on Middle East–related supply issues, services and goods inflation picked up, food inflation eased, and core inflation climbed to 2.5%, with most major members seeing higher rates except Germany. The acceleration cements the case for a 25 basis-point interest rate increase from the ECB at its 11 June meeting.
- The US has proposed new tariffs of at least 10% on imports from 60 trading partners following an investigation into goods allegedly produced with forced labor. The proposed rate would be 10% for imports from Canada, Mexico, the EU, Taiwan and the UK, and 12.5% for several other major economies. The measures remain subject to a public consultation and review process, meaning the final tariffs may be revised before implementation.
Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)
1215 – US May ADP Employment Change
1345 – US May PMIs (final)
1400 – US April Factory Orders
1400 – US May ISM Services
1430 – EIAs Weekly Crude and Fuel Inventory Report
1800 – Fed Beige Book
Earnings events
- Monday: Hewlett Packard Enterprise
- Tuesday (yesterday): Palo Alto Networks, Dollar General, Ulta Beauty
- Wednesday (today): Broadcom, Inditex, CrowdStrike, Medtronic, Veeva Systems
- Thursday: Ciena, Lululemon Athletica
For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.
Equities
- USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.1% to a fresh record, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.5% and the Dow added 0.4%, as AI enthusiasm again did most of the heavy lifting. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped 5.9%, led by Marvell Technology, which surged almost 33.0% after Nvidia’s Jensen Huang suggested it could become the next one trillion-dollar company. Hewlett Packard Enterprise rose 19.5% after strong results and higher guidance, while Alphabet drew attention around AI infrastructure plans. After the close, Palo Alto Networks fell about 3.0% despite raising its profit outlook, while GitLab dropped 5.1% even after beating earnings expectations and guiding above consensus.
- Europe: European equities rebounded, with the Stoxx Europe 600 rising 0.7% to 625.34 and the Euro Stoxx 50 climbing 1.2% to 6,107.85, as technology stocks led the recovery. STMicroelectronics surged 15.1% after nearly doubling its 2026 data-centre revenue forecast to 1 billion dollars, while ASML gained 4.9% and Infineon rose 9.5% to a record high as investors kept buying the AI supply chain. Markets now watch whether this AI-led breadth can survive the next macro data check.
- Asia: Asian equities advanced, led by Hong Kong, where the Hang Seng Index jumped 2.5% to 26,038.32 and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index gained 3.0%. Tencent surged 10.5% after reports it is moving closer to launching an AI agent inside WeChat, while Meituan rallied on narrower-than-expected losses. Macau casino stocks extended gains after stronger gaming revenue, with MGM China up 7.2% and Wynn Macau up 5.8%, while Lenovo hit a record after Macquarie lifted its price target by more than 70%. The CSI 300 rose 1.5%, and broader regional sentiment stayed supported by lower crude prices and AI optimism.
Volatility
- Volatility remains remarkably subdued despite a busy macro calendar and several geopolitical risks simmering beneath the surface. The VIX closed at 15.77 on Tuesday, while shorter-term measures stayed even lower, with VIX1D at 8.88 and VIX9D at 13.19, indicating that investors are not currently pricing in significant near-term market stress. That calm could be tested today by the ADP employment report, ISM Services data, crude oil inventories and the Fed’s Beige Book, while Friday’s US jobs report remains the week’s most important scheduled catalyst.
- SPX options imply an expected move of roughly ±63 points (0.83%) into Friday’s close, while today’s options pricing suggests a move of around ±29 points (0.38%). The daily 0DTE sentiment indicator remains mildly bullish, with calls around the 7,610 strike trading at a premium to comparable puts. While this points to somewhat stronger demand for upside exposure, it should be viewed as a short-term positioning signal rather than a directional forecast.
- Options flow continues to suggest investors are preparing for a potentially more volatile second half of June. Large SPX positions were concentrated around the period following next week’s CPI release and the 16–17 June FOMC meeting, while ETF flows showed continued demand for downside protection in emerging markets. At the same time, investors continued to add upside exposure in QQQ, Nvidia and semiconductor-related names, reinforcing the view that artificial intelligence remains the market’s dominant leadership theme.
Digital Assets
- Digital assets remain under pressure after a difficult start to June. Bitcoin traded near $66,980, while Ethereum hovered around $1,867, both stabilising after sharp declines earlier this week. Sentiment has been weighed down by continued ETF outflows, uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations and investor reaction to Strategy’s first Bitcoin sale since 2022, even though the transaction represented only a tiny fraction of the company’s holdings.
- Crypto-linked equities continue to reflect the cautious mood. IBIT fell 6.0%, ETHA declined 4.8%, while Coinbase (-4.7%), MicroStrategy (-9.2%) and MARA (-3.8%) all underperformed the broader equity market. ETF flows remain the key signal for long-term investors. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced one of their largest sustained outflow streaks on record, while Ethereum ETFs have also seen fresh withdrawals, with ETHA among the largest contributors.
- Options activity paints a more nuanced picture. Traders continued to position for larger future price swings rather than expressing strong directional views. Significant activity in IREN, COIN and IBIT included both call and put exposure, while MSTR attracted notable put buying. In other words, the options market is signalling uncertainty rather than conviction. Among the major altcoins, XRP traded near $1.23, while Solana held around $74.50. Despite recent weakness, neither Bitcoin nor Ethereum has yet experienced the type of forced liquidation activity typically associated with deeper crypto bear markets.
Fixed Income
- US Treasuries were broadly steady, with the 10-year yield little changed at 4.46% and the 30-year yield at 4.97%. The 30-year has now fallen in eight of the past nine sessions and sits at its lowest since 8 May, having pulled back from a 52-week high of 5.18% hit on 19 May. The short-term interest rate market is currently pricing a 30% risk of a rate hike before yearend, with the risk of a renewed Fed hiking cycle, keeping the 2-year at 4.06%.
- German 10-year Bund yields trades lower for a second day, holding above key support at 2.9%, with the latest move signalling the market has now fully priced in a widely anticipated rate hike from the ECB at next week's meeting following the May CPI print of 3.2%.
Commodities
- Crude oil is trading higher for a third consecutive session, with Brent pushing above USD 97 as market pessimism once again grows over the prospects of a US-Iran deal that could pave the way for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The latest escalation saw US forces intercept Iranian missiles and drones before striking an Iranian command center in response. For now, the risk premium continues to be partly offset by President Trump's repeated insistence that an interim agreement remains within reach.
- Attention now turns to the EIA's weekly inventory report after the API reported a 6.8 million barrel decline in US crude stocks, which, if confirmed, would mark a sixth consecutive weekly drawdown. Traders will also be watching inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, where stockpiles have fallen to around 23 million barrels, not far above the roughly 20 million barrel level widely considered the operational minimum.
- Gold trades lower as the market continues to take its cues from oil, with the latest rise in crude prices weighing on bullion through its inflationary impact. Higher energy costs have underpinned bond yields and the dollar while reducing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. For now, gold remains trapped in a narrowing range around USD 4,500, with support provided by the 200-day moving average at USD 4,417 and resistance emerging around USD 4,620.
- Copper futures in New York trades near last month's record high of USD 6.7160 per pound and is up 17% year-to-date as demand continues to outpace supply, with AI infrastructure investment providing an increasingly important source of consumption growth. In addition, the High-Grade contract is once again outperforming London prices amid renewed speculation over potential US import tariffs. The US Commerce Department faces a 30 June deadline to deliver its latest recommendation on copper tariffs, helping maintain bullish sentiment across the market.
Currencies
- USD is broadly supported, with the main focus on USDJPY, which briefly traded 160 during the Asia session, near prior Japanese intervention territory. The move is underpinned by strong US labor-market data (job openings) and safe-haven/oil dynamics linked to the US–Iran conflict, which has pushed crude prices higher in the latest session.
- AUDUSD was flat to slightly higher and remains up about 0.8% since the US–Iran conflict began, though Australia’s Q1 GDP is a key near-term risk that could hit AUD if it disappoints.
- EURUSD is struggling for upside as higher oil prices and the broader bid for the dollar outweigh any support from Eurozone inflation data and an expected rate hike next week.
- The Chinese yuan trades at its strongest level since September 2022 against a trade-weighted basket, with the offshore USD/CNH reaching at 6.758, the lowest since February 2023.
