Market drivers and catalysts
Equities: Oil fears hit the U.S. and Europe, while Asia steadied on Friday as crude eased and bargain hunting returned.
Volatility: Oil shock, Iran conflict, payrolls ahead, hedging demand persists
Digital Assets: Bitcoin near $70k, IBIT outflows, ETHA inflows,
Currencies: Major currencies rangebound, though JPY weakening Friday has USDJPY threatening key resistance just below 158.00
Commodities: Oil prices ease back slightly after large jump Thursday , particularly in WTI crude
Fixed Income: Global yields pressured higher on inflation fears from higher energy prices
Macro events: US Feb. Employment Report, US Jan. Retail Sales
Macro headlines
The Trump administration might release emergency reserves and waive fuel requirements to address rising oil prices due to the Iran conflict. Prices surged 20% as tensions halted Strait of Hormuz shipments. Trump seeks influence over Iran's leadership as Israeli airstrikes persist; Iran denies seeking a ceasefire.
US initial jobless claims were steady at 213,000 in late February, below the expected 215,000. Continuing claims rose by 46,000 to 1,868,000, surpassing the expected 1,850,000, reflecting labor market stability. Federal employee claims decreased by 25 to 529, amid government shutdown scrutiny.
US nonfarm productivity rose 2.8% in Q4 2025, exceeding the expected 1.9%. Output increased 2.6%, while hours worked decreased by 0.2%. Manufacturing productivity fell 1.9% as output and hours worked declined. Durable goods productivity dropped 3.0%; nondurable fell 0.2%. 2025's average productivity growth was 2.2%, down from 3.0% in 2024.
US employers announced 48,307 job cuts, down from January's 108,435 and last year's 172,017. Tech led with 11,039 cuts, driven by AI impacts and rising costs. Education and manufacturing followed with 5,417 and 4,109 cuts. More layoffs may occur due to US involvement in Iran. Tech faced the most cuts this year at 33,330, followed by transportation (31,702) and health care/products (19,228).
Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)
1230 – US Fed’s Waller on Bloomberg TV
1330 – US Jan. Retail Sales
1330 – US Feb. Nonfarm Payrolls Change
1330 – US Feb. Unemployment Rate
1330 – US Feb. Average Hourly Earnings
1500 – Canada Feb. Ivey PMI
1630 – US Fed’s Miran to speak on CNBC
Earnings this week
Today: OTP Bank, Lufthansa
Next week
Monday: Constellation Software, Hewlett Packard Enterprise,
Tuesday: Oracle, Volkswagen, Franco-Nevada, Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli,
Wednesday: Inditex, Rheinmetall, Porsche, Henkel
Thursday: Adobe, Wheaton Precious Metals, Assicurazioni Generali, BMW, RWE, Hannover Re, Dollar General, Ulta Beauty, Lennar
For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.
Equities
USA: The Dow fell 1.6% to 47,954.74, the S&P 500 lost 0.6% to 6,830.71, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.3% to 22,748.99 as the Iran conflict pushed oil sharply higher and revived inflation worries. Industrials, materials and healthcare led the decline, while airlines also came under pressure as investors worried that higher fuel costs could squeeze margins and delay rate cuts. Chevron rose 2.1% as oil prices jumped, and Broadcom gained 4.8% after saying its artificial intelligence chip revenue could exceed $100 billion next year. Marvell rose 14.7% after hours on a strong outlook for the upcoming fiscal years. The next test is Friday’s U.S. jobs report, because markets now must weigh geopolitics against still-firm growth.
Europe: Europe stayed firmly in reverse, with the STOXX 600 down 1.3%, the FTSE 100 off 1.5%, the DAX down 1.6% and the CAC 40 lower by 1.5% as higher oil and gas prices fed stagflation fears. Exporters, miners, banks and travel stocks all weakened as investors reassessed the region’s exposure to imported energy and slower growth. Siemens Energy fell almost 6%, while Rolls-Royce and Rheinmetall dropped more than 5% each in a sharp defence-sector pullback after recent strength. DHL lost 5.1% on softer profit, while Rentokil jumped 10.7% after earnings. Investors now watch whether energy prices cool, because Europe has less room for cheerful denial.
Asia: Asian markets were mixed on Friday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 0.4% to 55,518.63, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up 1.6% to 25,713.49, Shanghai up 0.1% to 4,113.70, and South Korea’s Kospi down 0.8% to 5,536.40. The tone was calmer than earlier in the week as oil edged lower and bargain hunting returned, but Korea still looked fragile after its violent two-day swing. Hong Kong outperformed as tech and consumer names helped sentiment, while Japan held up better than other oil-importing markets. South Korea lagged again after this week’s earlier washout, showing that rebounds can be real and still leave bruises. Markets now watch oil flows through Hormuz and any sign the geopolitical temperature falls a notch.
Volatility
Market volatility continues to be shaped primarily by the oil shock linked to the Iran conflict rather than by equity panic alone. Brent traded around $84.46 and WTI near $79.93, putting both benchmarks on track for their strongest weekly gain since 2022 as tensions threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and keep inflation concerns elevated. For investors this matters because sustained energy strength can push inflation expectations higher, keep bond yields elevated and complicate the outlook for interest-rate cuts. The next key catalyst is today’s U.S. jobs report, where economists expect roughly 59,000 new jobs and unemployment around 4.3%, meaning any stronger data could reinforce the “higher-for-longer” rate narrative. Volatility indicators still show caution rather than panic: the VIX closed at 23.75, while VIX1D sits at 21.88 and VIX9D at 23.55, suggesting investors continue to pay for protection but are not yet pricing a full-scale volatility spike.
SPX expected move: Options pricing currently implies a move of roughly ±66.8 points for the S&P 500 into today’s 6 March expiry, or about 0.98% (up or down) from spot. That is slightly lower than yesterday’s reading for the same weekly expiry, indicating some event premium has eased into Friday. The options chain still shows a clear downside skew, with put implied volatility around the money higher than comparable calls, signalling that investors remain more focused on downside protection than on chasing upside.
Digital Assets
Digital assets are slightly weaker today but remain relatively stable given the broader geopolitical uncertainty affecting global markets. Bitcoin trades near $70,500, ether around $2,070, XRP near $1.40, and solana around $87.85, while crypto-linked equities such as MSTR, MARA, RIOT, CLSK and CIFR are under pressure as risk sentiment softens.
ETF flows also highlight a more selective market: U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs swung from strong inflows earlier in the week to a $227.9 million net outflow on 5 March, with IBIT moving from a $306.6 million inflow on 4 March to an $88.7 million outflow the following day. On the ethereum side, ETHA still attracted about $30.3 million of inflows on 5 March, even though U.S. spot ethereum ETFs as a group saw $90.9 million in net outflows, indicating continued interest in BlackRock’s product even as the broader crypto market softened.
Overall, bitcoin and ether continue to hold key psychological levels, but sentiment across digital assets remains sensitive to macro headlines, particularly oil prices, interest-rate expectations and geopolitical developments.
Fixed Income
US Treasuries remain weak as the benchmark 2-year yield rose three basis points to trade near 3.58% and the benchmark 10-year yield rose to close at a three-week high near 4.14%.
Global bond markets have come under pressure on the jump in crude oil prices since the breakout of war in Iran. While Japan’s yields were tame overnight and the benchmark JGB yield only nudged less than a basis point higher in the Friday session in Asia to 2.17%, yields in Europe jumped aggressively Thursday, with the German 10-year Bund benchmark up nine basis points to an almost four-week high at 2.84%. Intra-Europe spreads have risen as well, with the Germany-France 10-yeaer yield spread now at 62 basis points versus the pre-war low of 55 basis points. The UK 10-year Gilt benchmark also rose sharply yesterday, by 10 basis points to 4.54% as it nears the range high since early October of 4.62%.
Commodities
Crude oil prices posted new highs before easing back only slightly in the Friday session in Asia as the Strait of Hormuz remains almost entirely shut for crude and gas shipments. May Brent rose about four dollars per barrel Thursday from the prior day’s close, to just above USD 85 per barrel, but the bigger mover was April WTI, which rocketed over six dollars higher to close above USD 80 per barrel, the first close above that level for the front WTI contract since the summer of 2024.
European gas prices remain volatile, but the price action calmed somewhat Thursday relative to the prior two days as the month-forward Netherlands natural gas forward traded near EUR 51 per MWh after an intraday high of EUR 55 and low EUR 48. The intraday high on Tuesday was above EUR 65 for perspective.
- Gold and silver steadied and rebounded in Asia’s Friday session after a sell-off Thursday, particularly in silver. Gold trades USD 5,120 per ounce after a 5,050 low Thursday and silver trades USD 84.4 per ounce after a 80.54 low Thursday.
Currencies
Volatility in the major currencies remains muted. A USD rally on Thursday was reversed in places a EURUSD rebounded from a Thursday low of 1.1559 to trade back above 1.1600 by late US hours Thursday, trading 1.1610 Friday morning early in Europe.
- The JPY was weaker than the US dollar, likely on higher energy prices and higher global bond yields, with USDJPY nudging toward the recent cycle highs just shy of 158.00, trading 157.75 early Friday.
