Market drivers and catalysts
Equities: US hit records on chips, Europe rebounded on earnings and Asia dipped before Korea reopened at a record.
Volatility: VIX lower, geopolitics easing, oil and yields still key
Digital Assets: TC ~81k; ETH steady, altcoins higher, IBIT and ETHA supportive
Fixed Income: Yields ease lower on latest drop in crude oil prices
Currencies: JPY rises sharply on apparent intervention, spiking volatility. AUDUSD hits new post-2022 high.
Commodities: Crude oil drops, gold surges as hopes rise that US-Iran ceasefire will hold
Macro events: US Apr. ADP Employment Change
Macro headlines
Trump signals progress toward a final Iran deal, saying the US will briefly pause efforts to move ships through the Strait of Hormuz, while keeping the naval blockade in place. Washington is shifting focus to reopening the strait amid foreign pressure and rising domestic opposition to the war, but US–Iran talks remain deadlocked as Tehran insists negotiations depend on lifting the US naval blockade.
The ISM Services PMI slipped to 53.6 in April 2026 from 54, roughly in line with expectations and still above last year’s average. Activity rose to 55.9 as firms worked through backlogs while new orders fell to 53.5. The Employment index remained below 50 at 48.0 after 45.2 in March. Prices jumped to 70.7, the highest since 2022, on higher energy, metals, freight, and tariff-driven aluminum and lumber costs.
US job openings slipped by 56,000 to 6.87 million in March 2026, above expectations. Openings fell in professional and business services but rose in finance and insurance, and declined in most regions except the Northeast. Hires rose to 5.6 million, while separations held near 5.4 million, with quits and layoffs little changed.
The US RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index slipped to 42.6 in May 2026 from 42.8, its lowest since June 2024 and below 50 for a ninth month. The Six-Month Economic Outlook fell to 37.8, while the Personal Financial Outlook was steady at 50.3 and Confidence in Federal Economic Policies held at 39.8.
Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)
0600 – Sweden Apr. Flash CPI
1215 – US Apr. ADP Employment Change
1400 – Canada Apr. Ivey PMI
1430 – US Weekly DoE Crude Oil and Product Inventories
Earnings this week
Tuesday (yesterday): AMD, Pfizer, PayPal, Shopify, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Cummins, Eaton
Wednesday (today): Disney, Uber, Arm, DoorDash, CVS Health, Marriott, Novo Nordisk, Johnson Controls.
Thursday: Airbnb, McDonald’s, Canadian Natural Resources, AppLovin, Realty Income, KKR
Friday: Wendy’s, Brookfield Asset Management, Enbridge.
For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.
Equities
USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.8% to 7,259.22, the Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.3%, and the Dow gained 0.7%, as chip optimism pushed US equities to fresh records. Intel jumped 12.9% on reported Apple chipmaking talks, while Micron rose about 11.0% after an IDC report suggested the memory market may be entering a less cyclical phase. AMD gained 16.5% after hours as strong results and guidance reinforced demand for artificial intelligence data-centre chips. Shopify fell 15.6% on weaker revenue guidance, while PayPal and Palantir slipped despite earnings beats, reminding investors that expectations are now doing Olympic-level hurdles.
Europe: The Stoxx 600 rose 0.7% as resilient earnings helped investors look past Middle East concerns, while Germany’s DAX gained 1.7% to 24,401.70. Anheuser-Busch InBev rallied 9.3% after reporting its first volume expansion since 2023, supported by demand for Michelob and Corona. Infineon rose 8% as chip sentiment improved, while UniCredit gained 5.9% after record quarterly profits. The FTSE 100 fell 1.4% to 10,219.11, dragged down by HSBC, down 5.9%, and Entain, down 6.5%. Markets now watch whether earnings strength can keep offsetting higher energy and geopolitical risks.
Asia: Asian equities retreated from record highs as holiday-thinned trading and renewed Strait of Hormuz concerns weighed on sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.6%, while Japan, South Korea and mainland China were closed for holidays. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.8%, and Singapore’s Straits Times Index slipped 0.1% to 4,920.61 despite March retail sales rising 4.8% from a year earlier. In Wednesday morning trade in Europe, South Korea’s KOSPI surged to an all-time high as the global chip rally spread to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, giving Asia a much stronger semiconductor tone after Tuesday’s cautious session.
Volatility
Volatility eased as equities moved higher, with the S&P 500 closing at 7,259.22 (+0.81%) and the VIX falling to 17.38 (-4.98%). The decline reflects improving sentiment after signs of easing US-Iran tensions and a pullback in oil prices, but the broader backdrop remains sensitive, with crude still near USD 100 and yields elevated. At the same time, the rally is increasingly concentrated in AI-driven names, highlighted by South Korea’s KOSPI surging to a record high, reinforcing a risk-on tone but also raising questions about market breadth.
Based on SPX options pricing, the market is implying an expected move of about 34 points (0.47%) for today’s expiry and roughly 67 points (0.92%) into Friday.
Today’s 0DTE skew indicator shows a mild upside bias, with near-the-money calls priced at higher implied volatility than comparable puts, suggesting investors are leaning towards upside participation rather than actively hedging downside risk. Attention now shifts to US ADP employment data and a heavy earnings calendar, both of which could drive near-term volatility.
Digital Assets
Digital assets are holding a constructive tone alongside broader risk appetite, with Bitcoin trading around USD 81,286 and Ether near USD 2,364, while altcoins including Solana, XRP and Dogecoin are moving higher. The rebound appears largely driven by improving macro sentiment rather than crypto-specific catalysts, meaning the sustainability of the move will depend on whether risk conditions remain supportive.
ETF flows continue to act as a stabilising force, with IBIT gaining 1.94% and ETHA up 0.73%, reflecting ongoing institutional engagement. At the same time, options flow shows a more nuanced picture: upside exposure is being accumulated through vehicles such as MSTR and IBIT, while crypto miners continue to see hedging activity, indicating selective risk-taking rather than broad conviction. Overall, sentiment is improving, but positioning suggests investors remain cautious beneath the surface.
Fixed Income
US treasuries rallied on hopes that the US-Iran ceasefire will hold and on the fresh dip in crude oil prices. The benchmark 2-year yield dropped slightly and back below 3.94%, while the benchmark 10-year treasury yield edged lower toward 4.40%
European bonds rallied and yield curves steepend on the latest drop in crude oil prices. The benchmark 2-year German Schatz yield pushed five basis points lower Tuesday to below 2.68% and will open Wednesday lower still, while the benchmark German 10-year Bund yield fell less than three basis point to 3.06% Tuesday.
- Japan’s markets are closed through today
Commodities
Crude oil prices dropped back sharply on the lack of further confrontations in the Persian Gulf as ceasefire seen intact. July Brent trades early Wednesday near USD 108 per barrel after soaring as high as 115 Monday. The Iranian foreign minister met with diplomats in Beijing, suggesting coordination ahead of the Trump-Xi summit late next week. June WTI trades near USD 100 per barrel.
Gold and silver prices surged as oil prices dropped sharply. Spot gold rallied nearly USD 100 per ounce by early Wednesday. Trading near six-day highs just above USD 4,650 per ounce, with USD 4,500 now clearly the range support after Monday’s near touch of that level. Silver prices also surged, punching up above 75.50 per ounce early Wednesday after trading below 72.00 at one point late Tuesday.
Currencies
The JPY spiked higher suddenly early Wednesday on an apparent fresh round of intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance. The move came after USDJPY had backed up to a three-day high just below 158.00. The intervention took the exchange rate quickly lower to as low as 155.05 before two-way price action developed in a fast, volatile market. Less than 30 minutes after the intervention move reached its low, USDJPY traded above 156.30.
The US dollar trades weaker, driven lower still early Wednesday by the weight of USDJPY intervention. EURUSD traded back above 1.1700 and as high as 1.1740+ at one point, but remains very much bottled up in the range between 1.1650 and 1.1800, likely awaiting the latest USD jobs data this Friday as a next step.
The Australian dollar was quick to recover from its RBA-inspired stumble Tuesday and in Asian trading hours Wednesday, with AUDUSD even posting a new cycle- and nearly four-year high of 0.7251. Strong gains in metals and positive global risk sentiment, especially in China on Wednesday, likely drove the Aussie’s strong performance.
