Market drivers and catalysts
Equities: U.S. stocks edged higher, Europe was closed for Easter Monday, and Asia was mixed
Volatility: Iran deadline, Strait of Hormuz risk, VIX 24.17
Digital Assets: BTC ~$69k, ETH ~$2.1k, IBIT inflows, ETHA inflows
Fixed Income: US bond yields rise as inflation concerns lower rate cut hopes
Currencies: Dollar trades mixed ahead of Trump’s deadline
Commodities: Tightness lifts crude, gold softer amid focus on inflation and liquidity stress
Macro events: Eurozone and UK March PMIs
Macro headlines
Trump intensified threats against Iran ahead of his Tuesday 8 p.m. ET deadline, warning of strikes on civilian infrastructure, including bridges and power plants, if no deal is reached to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Markets grew more optimistic after Trump said Iranian negotiators wanted a deal, though Iran rejected a 45-day ceasefire and offered a 10-point plan Trump dismissed, while warning that it would respond to such strikes by ramping up its own attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf, which could heighten the global fuel squeeze and damage the world economy
G-7 finance ministers vowed to closely coordinate on the Middle East and flagged extreme market volatility and sharp oil price swings. Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama declined to comment on specific levels amid rising government bond yields.
ISM Services PMI fell to 54 in March from 56.1 in February (below 55 forecast), signaling slower growth. Business activity and employment weakened, prices jumped on higher oil and fuel, supplier deliveries slowed, inventories and backlogs eased, and new orders rose faster, with ISM pointing to the Iran conflict and higher oil prices.
Rivals OpenAI, Anthropic PBC, and Alphabet Inc.’s Google are coordinating efforts to curb Chinese competitors underscoring the severity of a concern raised by US AI companies that some users, especially in China, are creating imitation versions of their products that could undercut them on price and siphon away customers while posing a national security risk.
Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)
0800 – Eurozone March PMI
0830 – UK March PMI
1900 – US Feb Consumer Credit
1200 (midnight) - Trump’s 8PM ET Iran deadline
Fed speakers: Williams (1230). Goolsbee (16:35 & 17:45)
Earnings this week
Today: None
For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.
Equities
USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 6,611.83, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.5% to 21,996.34, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.4% to 46,669.88, as investors weighed tentative easing in Middle East tensions against renewed U.S. threats toward Iran. Apple rose 1.2% and helped lead the large-cap advance, while Seagate Technology jumped 5.6% after Morgan Stanley named it a top pick on AI-driven storage demand. Soleno Therapeutics surged 32.3% after Neurocrine agreed to buy the company for $2.9 billion in cash. Markets now turn to Iran headlines, U.S. inflation data, and the start of earnings season.
Europe: Europe, including the UK, was closed on Monday for Easter Monday, so the latest official local closes remained those from Thursday. On that close, the FTSE 100 rose 0.7% to 10,436.29, while Germany’s DAX fell 0.6% to 23,168.08 and France’s CAC 40 slipped 0.2% to 7,962.39, as higher oil prices supported London’s energy-heavy market but weighed on broader continental risk appetite. BP rose 2.6% and Shell gained 2.9% as crude climbed and investors focused on shipping risks around the Strait of Hormuz. When trading resumes, markets will watch whether energy strength continues to offset inflation and growth concerns.
Asia: Asia’s latest completed sessions were mixed, with South Korea’s KOSPI rising 0.4% to 5,439.08 and Singapore’s Straits Times Index gaining 0.5% to 4,972.40, while sentiment across the region stayed tied to oil prices, shipping risk, and demand for AI-linked chips. Yangzijiang Shipbuilding rose 3.1% and helped lead the Singapore market higher. In South Korea, sentiment remained constructive ahead of Samsung’s earnings update, which supported optimism around the chip cycle, while Japan traded more cautiously as investors balanced technology strength against the risk of higher energy costs. The next test for the region is whether chip momentum can keep outweighing pressure from rising input costs.
Volatility
Volatility remained elevated, with geopolitics still the dominant driver rather than purely market mechanics. Investors focused on President Trump’s deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, keeping oil prices above $110 and reinforcing concerns about inflation and growth. At the same time, attention is shifting toward U.S. inflation data and the Fed minutes later this week, which could determine whether volatility stabilises or moves higher again. The VIX closed at 24.17 on 6 April, signalling ongoing caution but not outright stress.
For this week, options pricing implies an expected move of around 127 points, or 1.92%, for the S&P 500 into Friday’s expiry.
- Daily skew indicator: Same-day SPX options show a clear downside bias, with the near-at-the-money 6610 put trading around 27.1% implied volatility, compared with roughly 24.3% for the call. This indicates investors are still willing to pay a premium for downside protection, even as equities hold near recent highs.
Digital Assets
Digital assets remained relatively resilient despite the uncertain macro backdrop, but the tone is still cautious rather than decisively bullish. Bitcoin traded around $68.7k, ether near $2.1k, with XRP and solana slightly weaker on the day. This suggests that while crypto is absorbing geopolitical headlines, it is not yet behaving as a strong risk-on asset.
ETF flows continue to provide a useful signal for investors. On 6 April, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw total net inflows of $471.4m, including $181.9m into IBIT, while spot ether ETFs recorded $120.2m in net inflows, with $60.8m into ETHA. This steady demand indicates that institutional investors are still adding exposure on dips, even in a fragile macro environment.
Fixed Income
US Treasuries lost ground again ahead of Easter with the negative tone extending into Tuesday’s session, with the yield on two-year notes rising 2 bps to 3.86% and 10-year by 2.4 bps to 4.35%. Both rising in response to inflation and growth concerns with focus today on Trump’s 8pm ET deadline and Friday’s inflation report.
Commodities
Oil rose for a third day ahead of President Trump’s 8pm ET (midnight GMT) deadline, with renewed threats to target Iranian infrastructure unless US demands are met. Iran has warned it would escalate attacks on regional energy assets in response. Brent futures are trading above USD 115, while spot cargoes were priced above USD 140 ahead of Easter. Saudi Arabia has meanwhile raised its May official selling price to Asia to a record USD 19.5 above regional benchmarks, underscoring tightening supply conditions.
All eyes are now on Trump for any signs of a deal or another deadline extension. Combined with reports of increased shipments through the Strait in recent days, such developments could ease the risk premium and weigh on futures prices.
Meanwhile, the global LNG market continues to tighten. Iran has not allowed a single LNG cargo to transit the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict began more than a month ago. Two Qatari LNG shipments were denied clearance on Monday and forced to turn back. Dutch TTF gas closed near USD 17/MMBtu ahead of Easter and is trading higher today.
Gold and silver are extending a two-day decline, pressured by a firmer dollar and renewed risk aversion. The ongoing Middle East crisis continues to stoke inflation fears, lifting bond yields and lowering the chance of rate cuts while rising liquidity concerns—amid stress among some sovereign holders and select asset classes—are driving demand for cash.
Currencies
The US index holds back above 100 as investors focus on Trump’s 8 PM ET deadline. US ISM services data showed slower growth, weaker employment and sharply higher prices, supporting expectations the Fed keeps rates on hold ahead of Friday’s key CPI report.
In the first full day of trading after Easter, the major pairs trade mixed with EURUSD at 1.1533, USDJPY near 160 while the BOJ has given no clear signal on a near term rate hike, GBPUSD at 1.3230, and AUDUSD at 0.6916.
The Middle East conflict has triggered a sharp shift in FX positioning, with speculators rushing into the USD. Over the past five weeks, the net long across eight IMM currency futures has climbed to a four-month high of USD 11.6 billion, from a USD 19 billion net short ahead of the war. The euro has been the main casualty, with EUR 22.5 billion of net selling driving positioning back to near neutral, from a three-year high just two months ago.
