Market drivers and catalysts
Equities: US and Europe fell on energy and earnings pressure, Asia weakened as renewed US-Iran clashes lifted oil
Volatility: VIX subdued, oil and Iran tensions in focus, payrolls ahead
Digital Assets: Bitcoin below USD 80k, ETF outflows pressure sentiment, crypto equities weaker, defensive miner hedging
Fixed Income: US Treasury yields rebound ahead of April US jobs report
Currencies: The US dollar firmed slightly ahead of today’s US jobs data
Commodities: Fading optimism lifts crude and gold, while cocoa surges on El Niño fears
Macro events: US Apr. Nonfarm Payrolls Change, US Apr. Unemployment Rate
Macro headlines
US forces said they intercepted unprovoked Iranian attacks on three Navy destroyers as the vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz toward the Gulf of Oman. This is a further testing the fragile US-Iran ceasefire.
Japan’s nominal cash earnings rose 2.7% year-on-year in March 2026, slowing from a revised 3.4% gain in February and missing the 3.2% consensus forecast. Real wages rose 1.0%, down from February’s revised 2.0% increase. Regular/base pay rose 3.2%, while overtime pay increased 1.9%.
US one-year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 3.6% in April 2026, the highest in a year, while three- and five-year expectations were unchanged at 3.1% and 3.0%, respectively. Expected gasoline-price inflation fell sharply to 5.1% from March’s spike, but uncertainty around inflation expectations increased. Expected earnings growth rose to 2.7%, while the perceived probability of higher unemployment rose to 43.9%, the highest since April 2025.
US weekly initial jobless claims rose by 10,000 to 200,000 in the week ended May 2, still below the 205,000 consensus forecast and consistent with a firm labor market. Continuing claims fell by 10,000 to 1.766 million in the prior week, a two-year low.
The US Court of International Trade ruled against Trump’s latest 10% global tariffs. The ruling was narrow, blocking enforcement only for two importers and Washington state, after the court found that the administration had not met the statute’s “large and serious” balance-of-payments threshold.
Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)
· 0600 – Germany Mar. Industrial Production
· 0945 – US Fed Cook to speak on asset tokenization
· 1100 – US Fed’s Miran interview
· 1230 – US Apr. Nonfarm Payrolls Change
· 1230 – US Apr. Unemployment Rate
· 1230 – US Apr. Average Hourly Earnings
· 1230 – Canada Employment Data
· 1400 – US May Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment Survey
Earnings events
Thursday (yesterday): Airbnb, McDonald’s, Canadian Natural Resources, AppLovin, Realty Income, KKR, Rheinmetall
Friday (today): Wendy’s, Brookfield Asset Management, Enbridge.
Next week
Monday: Petrobras, Constellation Energy, AST SpaceMobile
Tuesday: Siemens Energy, KBC Group, Bayer, Constellation Software
Wednesday: Cisco Systems, Siemens, Softbank Group, Deutsche Telekom, Merck, E.ON, RWE, Nebius Group
Thursday: Applied Materials, Ross Stores, Nu Holdings
For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.
Equities
USA: The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 7,337.11, while the Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.1% to 25,806.20 as chip strength faded and nine of 11 sectors declined. Broadcom fell 3.0% on worries around AI chip financing, while Zoetis sank 21.5% after missing earnings expectations and cutting guidance. Datadog jumped 31.3% after lifting its annual outlook on strong cloud security demand, while McDonald’s gained slightly after better revenue and earnings, helped by value offers and larger burgers. After the close, Expedia and Coinbase fell, keeping earnings quality in focus.
Europe: The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 1.1%, its biggest loss since March 26, while the FTSE 100 dropped 1.5% to 10,276.95, Germany’s DAX fell 1.0% to 24,663.61, and France’s CAC declined 1.2%. Energy and defence led the pullback as US-Iran peace hopes lowered the perceived risk premium in oil and military spending. Shell fell 2.9% after cutting its buyback despite stronger profit, while BAE Systems and Babcock International fell on peace deal hopes. Campari sank 14.5% after missing revenue expectations, and Tenaris lost 6.7% on cautious second-quarter guidance.
Asia: Asian equities opened lower Friday after renewed US-Iran clashes pushed oil higher and cooled risk appetite, especially after a strong AI-led rally earlier in the week. Japan’s Topix fell 0.4% to 3,825.84 and the Nikkei declined 0.6% to 62,448.45, while South Korea’s KOSPI opened 1.8% lower at 7,353.94 and later fell as much as 2.0%. Hong Kong was positioned for declines as the MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index lost 0.9%. Datasection jumped 13.0% to an 11-week high, while OCBC reported a 5% rise in quarterly profit, helped by wealth management and fee income.
Volatility
Volatility remained relatively contained despite renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The S&P 500 closed at 7,337.11, down 0.38%, while the VIX edged lower to 17.08, suggesting investors remain cautious but are not yet pricing in broader market stress. Oil prices continue to be the key macro driver, with Brent crude holding above USD 100 as markets monitor developments around the Strait of Hormuz and the risk of supply disruptions. Investors are also focused on today’s US payrolls report, which could influence expectations around Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year.
Options pricing implies an expected SPX move of roughly 40.6 points, or 0.55%, into today’s expiry.
The daily 0DTE skew indicator continued to lean bullish, with near-the-money calls around the 7,335–7,340 strikes trading at higher implied volatility than comparable puts, signalling more tactical upside participation than aggressive downside hedging.
Meanwhile, options flow remained balanced overall, with investors continuing to sell SPX premium to generate income while selectively maintaining downside protection in technology-heavy exposure.
Digital Assets
Digital assets traded softer overnight as geopolitical tensions and weaker risk appetite pushed Bitcoin back below the USD 80,000 level. Bitcoin traded near USD 79,700, while Ether held around USD 2,280, with Solana near USD 88 and XRP around USD 1.39. The broader tone remains cautious rather than outright bearish, but ETF flows continue to weigh on sentiment.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately USD 268.5 million in net outflows on Thursday, including nearly USD 98 million from BlackRock’s IBIT, while Ether ETFs lost around USD 103.6 million, including roughly USD 26 million from ETHA.
Crypto-linked equities also weakened, with Coinbase, MicroStrategy and several mining stocks trading lower alongside Bitcoin. Options flow showed investors adding downside hedges in miners such as IREN and RIOT, although selective upside positioning remained visible in names including MicroStrategy and Coinbase through longer-dated call activity.
For investors, the crypto market continues to balance improving institutional adoption trends against a macro backdrop that remains sensitive to geopolitical headlines and broader risk sentiment.
Commodities
The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) trades down 1.5% on the week, trimming its year-to-date gain to 27.5%, as optimism—so far unfounded—over a resolution to the Iran conflict helped push energy and grain prices lower, while precious and industrial metals staged a rebound. The biggest weekly losers into Friday’s session are Brent crude, gas oil, coffee and wheat, while silver leads gains with a near 5% advance, followed by copper and platinum. The standout performer has been cocoa, with futures surging almost 25% as renewed El Niño weather fears triggered aggressive short covering.
Brent crude trades firmer, holding above USD 100 after another volatile week that saw an almost USD 20 trading range as Middle East headlines swung sentiment between optimism and frustration. The key point remains unchanged: the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with renewed clashes between U.S. and Iranian forces lowering the prospect of a near-term reopening. The IEA estimates regional supply losses at around 14 million barrels per day, only partly offset by surging U.S. exports, strategic reserve releases and demand destruction.
Gold trades modestly higher on the week but remains rangebound, with support established ahead of USD 4,500, while resistance is seen at the 50-day moving average, currently near USD 4,780, followed by USD 4,850. Its resilience during a period of exceptional equity market strength points to continued central bank demand as well as lingering investor unease over inflation, economic growth and mounting fiscal debt concerns.
Cocoa futures surged to a nine-month high, rising around 23% on the week on concerns a renewed El Niño weather pattern may bring drier conditions to West Africa, threatening crop yields. Elevated fertilizer costs and the recent month-long price slump have further strained farmer economics. For now, however, the rally appears primarily driven by short covering after speculators - wrong-footed by the recent rebound - built the largest net short position since November 2022.
Fixed Income
US treasury yields rebounded Thursday ahead of Friday’s US April jobs data, with the benchmark 2-year treasury yield rebounding about five basis points to 3.92% and the benchmark 10-year treasury yield backing up four basis points to 4.39%.
After a steep drop in European yields on the crude oil price drop, yields stabilized Thursday, with the benchmark 2-year German Schatz nudging slightly higher to 2.585%, while the benchmark 10-year German Bund hovered near 3.00%, the middle of the range since late March and psychologically key.
Currencies
The US dollar remains rangebound ahead of Friday’s US April jobs report, with USDJPY trading near 156.85, the middle of the range that has been established since Japan’s Ministry of Finance intervened to strengthen the JPY forcefully on April 30th. EURUSD is likewise in the middle of the recent range after feints towards 1.1800 have been brushed back and the pair trades near 1.1735 early Friday. AUDUSD dipped back toward 0.7220 after extending to multi-year highs on Wednesday to as high as 0.7278 – fresh longs will want the prior range high of 0.7200 to hold to maintain an upside view.
Sweden’s Riksbank maintained a very cautious stance on signalling any new policy intentions after the recent run higher in energy prices. This sent future Riksbank rate hike expectations and the Swedish krona lower. EURSEK has risen to the top of the range since mid-April just south of 10.90.
Norway’s Norges Bank surprised many with a 25-basis point rate hike and signalling that another rate hike may lie ahead this year. The policy rate now stands at 4.25%. Alas, Norway’s recent strength has chiefly been driven by energy prices, which have recently fallen back. After a burst of NOK strength, EURNOK ended Thursday nearly unchanged at 10.92.
