Market Quick Take - AI lifts while chips stumble - 16 July 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

1. Equities: US stocks advanced on banks and Apple, Europe was flat, Asia sold off as memory-chip volatility spread across the region.
2. Volatility: Front-end vol slid on soft inflation as an Asian chip selloff clouded the tone before TSMC
3. Digital Assets: Crypto firmed on cooler inflation, ether leading, as Japan advanced a path to spot ETFs
4. Commodities: Wheat jumps on Black Sea attacks, crude and gold steady, copper hits one-month high
5. Fixed Income: Treasury yields fall across the curve after soft CPI and PPI data
6. Currencies: The dollar continues to drift; EURGBP hits one year high
7. Macro: US June Retail Sales

Macro

1. The US launched more airstrikes on Iran with the aim to reduce its ability to threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The interim US-Iran peace deal has effectively collapsed, with both sides accusing each other of violations and Iran threatening vessels transiting the strait. The renewed tensions have lifted crude and especially fuel prices prompting a warning from the IEA that the global economy is in peril if the waterway isn’t reopened withing weeks.
2. US producer prices fell 0.3% month-on-month in June 2026 (vs 0% expected), after a revised 0.6% rise in May—the first decline since August 2025. Goods prices dropped 1.4%, led by a 12% fall in gasoline, while services rose 0.2%. Year-on-year, PPI increased 5.5% (vs 6.2% expected), and core PPI rose 0.2% on the month, with the annual core rate at 4.7%.
3. The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index rose 10 points to 15.6 in July 2026, indicating stronger activity. New orders, shipments, employment, and the workweek increased, supply availability worsened, and price pressures remained elevated but eased slightly. Firms remained optimistic about the outlook.
4. Andy Burnham, expected to be confirmed as UK prime minister on Monday, is set to choose a fiscally conservative finance minister. Reports that Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is the frontrunner for the Treasury have reassured markets, easing worries he might pick Ed Miliband, who is seen as more fiscally expansionary.
5. More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0600 – UK May GDP, Trade & Industrial Production

1230 – US June Retail Sales

1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims

Earnings events

1. Thursday: UnitedHealth, GE Aerospace, Netflix, Seagate, Abbott Labs, Intuitive Surgical, U.S. Bancorp, State Street
2. Friday: Travelers

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

1. USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.4%, the Dow gained 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.6%, as softer wholesale inflation and strong bank earnings supported a second straight advance. The Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.3% as memory shares weakened, with SanDisk down 8.1%, while Apple jumped 4.0% to a record after its artificial intelligence service cleared a key regulatory step in China. PayPal surged 17.2% on reports that Stripe and Advent had submitted a takeover offer, while Pentair fell 15.0%. Investors next turned to retail sales and the expanding earnings calendar.
2. Europe: The Stoxx 600 edged up 0.1%, while the Euro Stoxx 50 fell 0.2%, the DAX declined 0.6% and the FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% as luxury strength offset weakness in chips and telecoms. Richemont surged 6.7% after quarterly sales growth nearly doubled expectations, lifting the wider luxury sector, while Infineon dropped 6.3% with the global semiconductor selloff. Vodafone fell 3.9%, and ASML reversed an early rally despite raising its annual sales outlook as reports pointed to customer resistance over pricing. Earnings remained the main test for Europe’s recent record run.
3. Asia: Asian equities fell sharply as the US memory-chip selloff spread across the region. The MSCI Asia Pacific index dropped 1.1%, South Korea’s Kospi slid 4.4% and Japan’s Nikkei lost more than 2.0%, with the Korea Exchange briefly curbing programme selling as volatility intensified. SK Hynix tumbled 8.4% after its US-listed shares fell overnight, while Japanese chip and technology names also weakened. Hong Kong and mainland Chinese markets held up better as Apple’s China artificial intelligence approval supported interest in local smartphone and model developers. Investors watched whether the selloff remained concentrated in crowded chip trades or broadened further.
4. More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

VIX 15.67 | VIX FUTURES: 18.12 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (148.51) | MARKET REGIME: LOW-VOLATILITY BULL | AS OF ~06:00 CET

1. Softer June producer prices extended Wednesday's gains, though an overnight Asian chip selloff has since tempered the tone. The VIX eased to 15.67, a second daily decline, and VIX1D fell 10% to 9.51, pricing minimal near-term risk. VIX9D dropped a similar 10% to 12.06, leaving front-end vol deeply subdued.
2. The term structure held a steep contango, VIX3M at 18.91 and VIX1Y 23.13, while SKEW stayed elevated at 148.51 and MOVE eased 9% to 68.48. Pre-market SPXW pricing implies a weekly expected move of about 48 points, or 0.64%, for Friday's expiry, with TSMC earnings today the primary catalyst.
3. For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the Options Insights

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~64,560 -0.6% | ETHEREUM ~1,918 -0.2% | IBIT 36.81 +0.63% | ETHA 14.52 +2.40% | AS OF ~06:00 CET

1. Digital assets held firm into Thursday after Wednesday's advance, when softer US inflation lifted sentiment and pushed bitcoin back towards $65,000. Ether outpaced bitcoin, strengthening the ETH/BTC cross after weeks of weakness. US-listed proxies followed, with the ether ETF leading the fund complex and crypto-linked equities rallying alongside the majors.
2. On the structural side, a Japanese parliamentary committee approved a bill reclassifying digital assets as financial instruments, a step that clears a path towards spot crypto ETFs and a lower flat tax rate.

Commodities

1. Crude oil steadied after a three-day rally, with Brent trading around USD 85, suggesting the recent wave of short covering that helped fuel the advance may have largely run its course for now. Nevertheless, escalating Middle East tensions continue to raise concerns about energy flows from the region, prompting the IEA to warn that a prolonged disruption could have a meaningful impact on the global economy. Combined with Russian export restrictions, the greatest stress remains concentrated in refined fuel markets, particularly diesel.
2. Wheat prices in Paris surged to a 17-month high on Wednesday, while Chicago futures reached their highest level in nearly two months. Renewed attacks between Ukraine and Russia have intensified concerns about Black Sea export disruptions at a time when global inventories are tightening and US wheat production is forecast to fall to its lowest level since 1970. Meanwhile, production in France, the EU's largest wheat producer, is expected to decline by around 4% this year after repeated heatwaves damaged yields.
3. Gold remains trapped in a broad USD 3,950–4,200 range as investors balance the inflationary impact of higher energy prices and the prospect of tighter Federal Reserve policy against the longer-term economic risks from a prolonged energy shock, mounting fiscal debt concerns and continued central bank buying.
4. Copper is trading near a one-month high as robust demand, falling visible inventories and persistent supply concerns outweigh worries about a slowing Chinese economy and the potential drag on global growth from renewed Middle East hostilities.
5. More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

1. Treasuries rose for a second consecutive session following the soft June PPI print, with yields falling across the curve. The 2-year trades at 4.14%, down from a 17-month high at 4.29% peak on Tuesday, the 10-year fell 5bps to 4.55%, and the 30-year fell 3bps to 5.077%. Short-end bonds outperformed with 2s10s spread widening to a one-month high at 40 bps as the market further priced out near-term Fed hike risk.
2. Rising JGB yields to multi-decade highs are drawing Japanese capital home, with analysts flagging that a $100 billion reduction in Japanese Treasury holdings could push US 10-year yields materially higher on a sustained basis - a structural headwind for Treasuries that is being closely monitored.

Currencies

1. The US dollar weakened for a third consecutive session after softer-than-expected June CPI and PPI data reversed the pre-release gains driven by renewed Strait of Hormuz tensions and expectations of further Fed rate hikes. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (BBDXY) has slipped to a one-month low, with broad-based losses being led by strength in sterling, the Scandinavian and Antipodean currencies, as well as the Swiss franc.
2. Sterling climbed to a two-month high against the dollar and a fresh one-year high versus the euro after reports that incoming UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham will appoint Shabana Mahmood as Chancellor of the Exchequer. The choice has reassured financial markets, although it has drawn criticism from Labour's left wing.
3. USDJPY continues to trade above 162 despite speculation that Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama will introduce measures encouraging the Government Pension Investment Fund to increase allocations to domestic financial assets. Meanwhile, the options market suggests the yen could weaken towards 165 before traders begin to price in a greater risk of Bank of Japan intervention.
4. More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis