Market Quick Take - Big Tech's capex test, oil tops $96 - 23 July 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

1. Equities: U.S. stocks softened, Europe advanced broadly, and Asian markets rallied as renewed AI spending lifted Korean chipmakers.
2. Volatility: VIX eased back below 17 as the chip bid returned, with Intel earnings and the ECB the next tests
3. Digital Assets: Crypto spot eased overnight while miners diverged higher and a Korean group bought into the sector
4. Commodities: Oil extended its rally as Red Sea tanker attacks deepened the supply-risk premium, with gold holding firm
5. Fixed Income: Treasury yields held near cycle highs as oil-driven inflation fears kept a Fed hike on the table
6. Currencies: The dollar eased while the yen stayed pinned above 163 on Bank of Japan hike speculation
7. Macro: Alphabet's record capex reframed the AI trade as oil and the Middle East kept inflation in focus, with the ECB due

Macro

1. The US-Iran conflict escalated further, with US Central Command launching fresh strikes on Iranian military targets on Wednesday evening and both sides playing down the prospect of near-term talks. Iran-backed Houthi militants claimed responsibility for striking two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, prompting more vessels to divert from the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and creating what analysts describe as a two-chokepoint problem for oil. The result was a fresh risk premium in crude and a renewed market focus on inflation.
2. Rising oil prices have revived talk of a Fed rate hike, with rates markets now beginning to treat next week's meeting as a live decision after the 10-year yield pushed back toward its year-to-date high. In Asia, Bank of Japan officials are reportedly open to raising rates faster than the consensus expects, as persistent yen weakness feeds upside inflation risk, though the BOJ is still seen holding at its 31 July meeting. Bank Indonesia surprised markets by keeping its policy rate at 5.75% after two months of aggressive hikes.
3. Attention in Europe turns to the ECB's policy decision later today, following a firmer German ZEW sentiment print earlier in the week. In the US, the House passed a 95-billion-dollar Republican-only budget proposal in a narrow 216 to 214 vote, a first step toward fast-tracking Iran war-related spending, which House Democrats unanimously opposed.
4. More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1415 CET: ECB monetary policy decision, followed by the press conference at 1445 CET

1430 CET: US initial jobless claims

Earnings events

1. Wednesday (yesterday): Tesla, Alphabet, GE Vernova, Texas Instruments, ServiceNow, CME Group, ...
2. Thursday (today): Intel, Rtx Corp, T-Mobile US, Union Pacific, Honeywell, Nasdaq Inc, Verisign, Dow, Blackstone, American Airlines, ...
3. Friday: Exxon Mobil, American Express, NextEra Energy, Verizon, ...

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

1. USA: The S&P 500 slipped 0.1% to 7,498.96, the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5%, and the Dow was flat as Big Tech weakness offset gains in energy and utilities. GE Vernova dropped 8.7% after its outlook increase disappointed, while Super Micro Computer surged 19.8% after reporting more than $60 billion of new orders. After the close, Alphabet fell more than 3% despite strong cloud growth as it raised 2026 capital spending guidance to $195–205 billion, while Tesla lost 4.1% after earnings missed estimates and free cash flow turned negative. Investors now watch whether AI spending can translate into profit growth.
2. Europe: The Stoxx 600 rose 0.6%, the FTSE 100 gained 1.2% to 10,716.97, and the DAX advanced 0.6% to 25,155.41 as energy, defence and resource shares outweighed technology weakness. Airbus jumped 7.0% after announcing a €5 billion buyback and targets that implied nearly doubling profit by 2029, while Randstad surged 13.9% as improving labour demand lifted revenue above expectations. Hiab gained 11.2% on stronger orders, and Nestlé rose 2.2% on reports of a potential stake sale in its European water business. Attention now turns to the European Central Bank and energy-driven inflation risks.
3. Asia: Asian equities advanced on Thursday, with South Korea’s Kospi up around 3.5%, Japan’s Nikkei gaining 0.5%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng adding 1.3%, and Shanghai broadly flat. Korea led after Alphabet raised its capital spending plan, reinforcing demand expectations for memory chips and AI infrastructure, SK Hynix gained 5.3% and Samsung Electronics rose 4.3%, while stronger-than-expected Korean economic growth added support. Chinese shares steadied as state-backed institutions stepped up measures to contain the recent technology selloff. The regional rebound remained exposed to higher oil prices, with Brent near $96 and investors weighing whether heavy AI spending will deliver adequate returns.
4. More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

VIX 16.64 | VIX FUTURES: 18.62 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (150.19) | MARKET REGIME: TRANSITIONING | AS OF ~06:00 CET

1. Alphabet's record capex guidance reset the megacap earnings test, yet index vol stayed soft as Asian chipmakers rallied. The S&P 500 closed Wednesday down 0.14% at 7,498.96. VIX eased to 16.64, back below 18, while VIX1D jumped 12% to 11.39 off a very low base.
2. The term structure held in contango, VIX3M at 19.54, while SKEW stayed elevated at 150.19 and oil vol OVX near 65 ran almost four times the VIX. SPX options imply about 41 points (0.55%) for today's expiry and 53 points (0.70%) into Friday, with Intel earnings and the ECB ahead.
3. For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the Options Insights

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~65,640 -0.6% | ETHEREUM ~1,920 -0.5% | IBIT 37.34 -0.88% | ETHA 14.52 -0.07% | AS OF ~06:00 CET

1. Digital assets drifted lower overnight, tracking the caution in tech futures after Alphabet's capex plans overshadowed its cloud beat. US crypto equities had closed mixed on Wednesday: Coinbase fell 5.5% and Strategy slipped 1.9%, but the miners diverged sharply higher, led by Riot up 8.8% and Cipher 6.9%.
2. On the structural side, Mirae Asset completed its takeover of the Korean exchange Korbit, making it the first major domestic financial group to directly own a licensed crypto venue after winning antitrust clearance this month.

Commodities

1. Crude oil extended its rally, with Brent rising as much as 2.5% to almost 96.50 dollars a barrel, its highest since early June, after Iran-backed Houthi militants struck two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea. WTI traded toward 88 dollars, leaving oil up close to 30% this month. The bid reflects the US-Iran conflict, the Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and Tehran's dismissal of peace talks.
2. Gold held firm above 4,100 dollars an ounce, consolidating a near 2% gain from the prior session as dip-buyers returned despite firmer US yields and a stronger dollar, with energy-driven inflation risk and Middle East safe-haven demand offsetting those headwinds. Silver traded near 60 dollars, and Asian gold-mining shares rallied in sympathy.
3. Copper headed toward its highest close since mid-June on signs of continued supply tightness in China, lifting European mining shares.
4. More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

1. US Treasuries stayed under pressure as the climb in oil stoked inflation concerns and revived talk of Fed rate hikes. The 10-year yield rose 3 basis points to 4.66%, approaching its 2026 intraday high of 4.687% set in May, while the 2- and 5-year yields hit fresh 2026 highs above 4.30% and 4.40%. The 30-year yield held above 5.13%, its 12th consecutive session and 27th day this year above 5%, the longest such run since 2007 and a marker of fiscal-sustainability and sticky-inflation concerns.
2. The Treasury sold 13 billion dollars of 20-year bonds at 5.163%, the highest award for the tenor since October 2023, tailing 0.5 basis points above the when-issued yield on a bid-to-cover of 2.64. In credit, US high-yield lost momentum, with CCC-rated yields reaching a new 15-month high and spreads lingering near 800 basis points.

Currencies

1. The dollar eased this morning, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down about 0.2% after firming during the US session. USDJPY traded above 163, having touched 163.24 for the first time since 1986 before briefly recovering toward 162.70 on reports that the Bank of Japan is open to faster hikes; the bounce faded quickly. Japanese Finance Minister Katayama issued verbal warnings, though markets remain sceptical of near-term intervention.
2. Elsewhere, EURUSD firmed toward 1.1435 ahead of the ECB, supported by the stronger German ZEW print, while GBPUSD was little changed near 1.3375 after softer UK June inflation. The franc was the weakest major, with USDCHF up 0.2% to around 0.8144, AUDUSD held near 0.6997, and USDCNH stayed tightly managed around 6.775 after a weaker-than-expected PBOC fixing.
3. More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis