Market Quick Take - Chips reclaim the lead - 15 July 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

1. Equities: US and European equities edged higher on softer inflation, while Asian technology shares rallied sharply and mainland China lagged.
2. Volatility: Soft CPI removed a July Fed hike and revived the chip trade, VIX eased, PPI ahead
3. Digital Assets: Crypto equities and ETFs rallied on soft CPI, spot eased overnight as ETF inflows and regulation advanced
4. Commodities: Oil holds gains after fresh US strikes; gold gives back CPI-driven rally as energy prices and Warsh weigh
5. Fixed Income: US bond yields decline, led by the front
6. Currencies: Broad but modest dollar retreat after soft CPI
7. Macro: US June PPI and Fed Chair Warsh's Senate testimony

Macro

1. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said June's easing inflation does not signal mission accomplished, reaffirming the Fed's commitment to restoring price stability. While stressing that the economy remains on solid footing, supported by AI and data centre investment, a resilient labour market and steady consumer spending, he also indicated that interest rates remain a potential tool if needed. His remarks were seen as his clearest indication yet that further policy tightening remains an option, although not necessarily in the near term.
2. US annual inflation fell to 3.5% in June 2026 from 4.2% in May, below the 3.8% forecast, as energy inflation eased sharply following a US–Iran ceasefire. Shelter and food inflation also ticked down. Month-over-month, CPI dropped 0.4%, the biggest fall since April 2020, driven by a 5.7% decline in energy and a 9.7% drop in gasoline. Core inflation fell to 2.6% from 2.9%, with core CPI flat on the month.
3. Trump has abandoned plans to impose a 20% levy on cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz after Gulf allies urged him to reconsider. Instead, Trump said the expected revenue would be offset by forthcoming direct investment commitments from Gulf states, although no details were provided. At the same time, the US announced it had reinstated its blockade on Iranian shipping to and from the country's ports and coastal waters, while US Central Command carried out a new wave of strikes against targets near the Strait of Hormuz and along Iran's coastline.
4. China's economy slowed more than expected in the second quarter, with annual GDP growth easing to 4.3%, the weakest pace in more than three years. The disappointing data, including weaker fixed-asset investment and subdued retail sales, strengthens the case for additional fiscal support and infrastructure spending when the Politburo meets later this month. Industrial production remained relatively resilient, while the urban unemployment rate edged down to 5%.
5. More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0900 – Eurozone May Industrial Production

1230 – US June PPI

1400 – Fed's Warsh testifies before Senate Banking Committee

1430 – EIAs Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report

1800 – Fed Beige Book

Earnings events

1. Monday: Progressive, Fastenal
2. Tuesday (yesterday): JPMorgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Well Fargo & Co, Citigroup
3. Wednesday (today): ASML, J&J, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, Bank of New York, Cintas, United Airlines
4. Thursday: UnitedHealth, GE Aerospace, Netflix, Seagate, Abbott Labs, Intuitive Surgical, U.S. Bancorp, State Street
5. Friday: Travelers

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

1. USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.4% and the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.1%, while the Dow finished almost flat, as softer US inflation eased rate-hike fears and revived the chip trade. Nvidia climbed 4.1% as semiconductor shares rebounded, while Goldman Sachs jumped 9% after record equities-trading revenue helped profits beat expectations. IBM sank 25.2%, its worst day on record, after preliminary revenue and earnings missed forecasts amid weaker software and infrastructure sales. Apple fell 0.8% after KeyBanc downgraded the shares to underweight, citing softer device demand and a stretched valuation, while investors turned to more bank earnings and Federal Reserve testimony.
2. Europe: The Stoxx 600 rose 0.2%, the FTSE 100 gained 0.3% and the DAX added 0.1%, as markets reversed early losses after softer US inflation reduced fears of another Federal Reserve rate increase. Ericsson plunged almost 13% after warning that higher costs would pressure network margins, while Capgemini and Dassault Systèmes each fell as IBM’s earnings warning spread concern across European software and IT services. ASML gained 1.0% as chip stocks recovered ahead of its results. Investors now watched whether Europe’s technology rebound could survive another earnings test.
3. Asia: Asian equities advanced on Wednesday as softer US inflation weakened the dollar and triggered a powerful rebound in technology shares. The Kospi surged 7.7%, while the Nikkei 225 gained 1.1% and the Hang Seng rose 1.5%; mainland China lagged, with the Shanghai Composite down 0.4% after second-quarter growth slowed to 4.3%. SK Hynix jumped 13.1% after Barclays began coverage with an overweight rating and optimism returned to artificial-intelligence memory demand, while Samsung Electronics gained 6.2% with the broader chip rebound. The recovery was strong, although Korea’s recent swings remained a reminder that leverage rarely leaves quietly.
4. More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

VIX 16.50 | VIX FUTURES: 18.45 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (145.13) | MARKET REGIME: LOW-VOLATILITY BULL

1. Soft June CPI took a July Fed hike off the table, reviving the AI-chip trade. VIX fell 3.85% to 16.50 and VIX1D collapsed 27.75% to 10.57, pricing minimal near-term risk. VIX9D eased to 13.46 and VVIX slipped to 93.53; the S&P 500 closed up 0.38%.
2. The term structure held in contango up to VIX3M at 19.30, while SKEW stayed elevated at 145.13 and MOVE eased to 75.03. Pre-market SPXW pricing implies a weekly expected move of about 64 points, or 0.85%, for Friday's expiry, with PPI today the immediate catalyst.
3. For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the Options Insights

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~64,750 -0.3% | ETHEREUM ~1,877 -0.7% | IBIT 36.58 +3.86% | ETHA 14.18 +6.06%

1. Crypto-linked equities and ETFs rallied on Tuesday as June's softer inflation print eased Fed-hike concerns and the dollar slipped, though spot eased marginally overnight. Miners led, with Bitmine +11.5% and CleanSpark +8.8%, while MicroStrategy gained 5.95% and US spot bitcoin ETFs drew their largest daily inflow in two months.
2. On the regulatory front, a US-UK Transatlantic Taskforce issued recommendations for closer cross-border cooperation on tokenized securities and stablecoins, while the CLARITY Act secured a second law-enforcement endorsement ahead of its August deadline.

Commodities

1. Oil prices trade higher for a third day after Trump threatened further strikes on Iran, hours after the US resumed its blockade on Iran’s shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Trump’s U-turn on plans to impose a 20% charge on shipments through the waterway briefly sent prices lower before the resumption of attacks, including Houthi groups firing ballistic missiles and drones on Saudi Arabia added to concerns about supply from the region. Focus on US stockpiles amid the release of weekly data from the EIA.
2. Gold rallied to USD 4,100 after softer-than-expected US CPI data boosted expectations for a less aggressive Federal Reserve. However, the move quickly faded, with prices trading back down to around USD 4,030, as renewed gains in oil prices and fresh US strikes against Iran revived inflation concerns, shifting market focus back toward the risk of higher interest rates rather than the longer-term, gold-supportive economic fallout from a sustained energy shock. For now, gold is sending no clear directional signal, with the yellow metal continuing to consolidate after a month-long and sharp correction.
3. More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

1. Treasuries rally on CPI surprise: US Treasury yields moved lower on Tuesday after softer-than-expected June CPI data prompted markets to scale back near-term Federal Reserve tightening expectations. The two-year yield, which is most sensitive to monetary policy, fell as much as 14 basis points to 4.14% - its largest one-day decline since February - before rebounding to around 4.20%. Further out the curve, moves were more subdued, with the 10-year yield initially dropping 10 basis points to 4.52% before recovering to around 4.60%.
2. Japan repatriation risk for Treasuries: Japanese government bond yields have climbed to multi-decade highs, fuelling speculation that Japanese investors—the largest foreign holders of US Treasuries—could gradually shift allocations back toward domestic government bonds. Analysis suggests that a USD 100 billion reduction in Japanese Treasury holdings could place sustained upward pressure on US long-term yields, representing a structural headwind for the long end of the curve.

Currencies

1. The US dollar weakened for a second consecutive session after softer-than-expected June CPI data unwound the pre-release gains driven by Strait of Hormuz tensions and renewed Fed rate hike expectations. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (BBDXY) has fallen to a one-month low, with broad-based weakness against all major peers over the past 48 hours. The biggest gains have been recorded by the Norwegian krone, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and Swiss franc, while the Japanese yen continues to underperform, leaving USDJPY holding above 162.
2. EURUSD has also benefited from the softer dollar but remains rangebound, with the pair continuing to trade around 1.14. For now, resistance is seen in the 1.1460–1.1470 area.
3. More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis