Market Quick Take - Crude holds firm and chip exports lift Korea as CPI looms - 12 August 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

1. Macro: A closed Strait of Hormuz kept crude bid while markets waited on the July inflation print
2. Equities: US stocks slipped before CPI, Europe held near records, Asia was mixed as a Korean chip rebound offset Hong Kong weakness.
3. Volatility: Event-day volatility repriced sharply into the inflation print while the broader surface eased
4. Digital Assets: Crypto held steady before the data while stablecoin and mining equities outperformed
5. Commodities: Crude extended a fifth straight advance and gold held near a two-month high
6. Fixed Income: US treasuries rallied Tuesday and 3-year auction strong ahead of key US CPI release today.
7. Currencies: JPY and CHF weak, USD sideways ahead of key US July CPI release today

Macro

1. Iran says the Strait of Hormuz stays shut until its demands are met, keeping a bid under crude for a fifth session. Pakistan's defence minister said the US and Iran are reportedly "close to some sort of arrangement" and even after both sides appeared to toughen their positions in the long-deadlocked negotiations
2. The US July NFIB Small Business Index rose 2.4 points to 99.8, the highest since August 2025, with 8 of 10 components improving as hiring plans surged and inflation pressures eased. Meanwhile,
3. US July CPI lands today and may be the session's swing variable. Consensus looks for a 0.1% moM rise and 3.4% YoY rise in the headline, and 0.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY for the core CPI, both 0.1% lower than June.
4. More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1. 1100 – US MBA Mortgage Applications
2. 1230 – US July CPI
3. 1600 – USDA monthly WASDE report on US and world crops
4. 1700 – US Treasury to auction 10-year notes

During the day: Monthly Oil Market Reports from IEA and OPEC

Earnings events

Earnings highlights for the rest of the week:

1. Wednesday: Cisco Systems, Tokio Marine, Coherent, Nebius Group
2. Thursday: Applied Materials, Brookfield Corporation, Netease, Nu Holdings, RWE, AP Moller, Adyen, Orsted

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

1. USA: The S&P 500 fell 0.3% on Tuesday, while the Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones also lost 0.3%, as fading hopes for a Strait of Hormuz agreement lifted oil and investors waited for today’s US inflation report. Large-cap technology weakened, with Alphabet down 3.8% and Amazon 2.1% lower, while Apollo Global gained 6.3% after joining Nvidia’s new AI financing initiative. Sea Limited jumped 14.6% after quarterly revenue beat expectations, helped by Shopee and financial-services growth. After the close, strong AI-infrastructure results from CoreWeave and Super Micro kept spending demand in focus ahead of CPI.
2. Europe: The Stoxx 600 finished flat on Tuesday, while the Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.2% to a record close and the DAX gained 0.3%, the FTSE 100 fell 0.2%. Higher oil prices supported energy shares, while a strong earnings season helped offset concerns that prolonged disruption through the Strait of Hormuz could keep inflation elevated. ISS gained 4.4% on stronger-than-expected results, while Spirax Group fell 5.6% after maintaining its outlook and Legal & General lost 3.1% following a broker downgrade. US inflation data remained the next major catalyst.
3. Asia: Asian equities traded mixed on Wednesday, with South Korea leading sharply higher: the Kospi surged around 4%, while Japan’s Nikkei gained 0.8% after reopening from a holiday and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.3%. Korean memory stocks drove the regional strength as AI-demand optimism and expectations for stronger shareholder returns revived buying, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix up around 5%. Mainland Chinese shares were steadier, while Hong Kong remained under pressure ahead of Tencent’s results. Investors also watched the yen near 159 per dollar and today’s US inflation report for the next signal on rates and risk appetite.
4. More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

VIX 15.28 | VIX FUTURES: 18.40 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (135.59) | MARKET REGIME: LOW VOL BULL | AS OF ~07:16 CET

1. Ahead of today's July CPI print the repricing was concentrated at the very front: VIX1D climbed 34% to 12.52, off a 7.52 open, while spot VIX eased to 15.28 and VVIX slipped to 90.90. VXN fell 2.9% to 22.38, so demand for index convexity stayed subdued outside the event window.
2. The cash curve held its contango, 12.52 at nine days against 18.91 at three months, with the front VIX future at 18.40 below the second at 19.80. SKEW eased to 135.59 while MOVE rose 3.3% to 77.9. SPX options imply 0.58% for today's expiry and 0.91% into Friday.
3. For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the Options Insights

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~63,766 (+0.36%) | ETHEREUM ~1,889 (+0.42%) | IBIT 35.94 (-0.80%) | ETHA 14.18 (+0.28%) | AS OF ~07:16 CET

1. Crypto held steady into the CPI print, with spot little changed and DVOL easing to 35.89. US-listed proxies diverged: Circle rose 6.1% and the miners outperformed, led by Cipher and Riot, while IBIT slipped, MicroStrategy fell and Coinbase finished flat.
2. On the structural side, the SEC has scheduled an open meeting for Friday to vote on proposing Regulation Crypto, a tailored offering framework for certain crypto investment contracts, which would be the agency's first formal crypto rulemaking under its current chair.

Commodities

1. Oil: Oil trades higher for a fifth consecutive session, with Brent near USD 90 and WTI around USD 84, as the Hormuz standoff and lower Russian refinery runs following Ukrainian attacks remain the dominant price drivers. In the latest round of verbal exchanges, Iran said the Strait of Hormuz would remain shut until its demands are met, while Pakistan's defence minister said the US and Iran are reportedly "close to some sort of arrangement", even as both sides appear to have toughened their positions. On tap today are the monthly oil market reports from the IEA and OPEC, with traders looking for updated assessments of supply disruptions and demand.
2. Precious metals: Spot gold trades near USD 4,400, having found support during Tuesday's brief pullback to USD 4,356. Traders are now focusing on today's US CPI print to gauge whether the recent technical breakout above USD 4,200 has enough momentum to carry prices towards the next major hurdle, the 200-day moving average near USD 4,500. ETF inflows extended to a fifth consecutive session, lifting total holdings to a six-week high and providing further evidence of renewed investor demand.
3. Industrial metals: COMEX copper trades steady around USD 6.65 per pound after last week run up to a record USD 6.8665, supported by a renewed squeeze in LME warehouse availability, a drop in production in Chile and Peru highlighting current production challenges, and continued US stockpiling ahead of a potential tariff decision on refined copper imports. Separately, Chile's government has allowed state-owned Codelco to retain 100% of its 2025 profit, approximately USD 2.42 billion, to fund strategic investments.
4. Grains: Today the USDA will release one of its most anticipated reports of the year, where US corn and soybean production will be the main focus. Meanwhile, Chicago wheat futures rebounded, underpinned by disruptions to supplies from the Black Sea region amid attacks by Ukraine and Russia on each other's shipping routes
5. More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

1. US Treasuries rallied Tuesday, with the longest 30-year yields pulling back from the brink after testing 19-year highs. A strong auction of 3-year treasuries also improved sentiment ahead of today’s July US CPI release, and a 10-year treasury note auction awaits later in the day. After testing the recent high of the cycle since 2024 near 4.745% Tuesday, the benchmark 10-year treasury yield rolled over to close at 4.68%.
2. Back from a one-day holiday on Tuesday, Japan’s government bond yields rose all along the curve Wednesday, with the benchmark 2-year JGB yield jumping more than two basis points to 1.645% by late in the trading day Wednesday, a new high since the mid-1990’s. The market is now pricing firmer odds (nearly 80%) of the next BoJ rate hike coming at the September 18 meeting.

Currencies

1. Price action across major currencies was moribund Tuesday and early Wednesday as the market awaits the week’s key data point in the form of the July US CPI print later in the day today, with the JPY remaining on the weak side of the recent ranges even as odds firm for a September 18 BoJ rate hike. Sterling remains firm versus the US dollar and the euro.
2. The Swiss franc remains on the weak side of the weakest levels this year versus the euro as EURCHF continues to eye the cycle highs this week near 0.9370. The next area of note to the upside is perhaps the 0.9400 area.
3. More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis