Market Quick Take - Hormuz doubts lift oil as payrolls loom - 7 August 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

1. Macro: Polysilicon tariffs and Hormuz uncertainty dominate as payrolls take over the session's direction
2. Equities: US stocks slipped, Europe reached another record, while Asian markets traded cautiously ahead of US payrolls.
3. Volatility: Equity vol kept compressing while oil vol jumped, payrolls now the session's single catalyst
4. Digital Assets: Crypto equities and miners led losses while spot held, corporate treasuries moved in opposite directions
5. Commodities: Hormuz doubts kept crude bid, gold consolidated its breakout and copper neared a record
6. Fixed Income: Yields rose globally on oil, hawkish Fed reporting and heavy corporate bond supply
7. Currencies: A firmer dollar broke the yen above its 200-day average ahead of US payrolls

Macro

1. The Trump administration imposed price floors and a 15% tariff on polysilicon products used in semiconductors and solar panels under Section 232, aiming to shield US producers from Chinese competition in the chip supply chain.
2. Strait of Hormuz tensions resurfaced. Iran said it struck "hostile targets" near Qeshm Island, while a draft Iran-Oman deal would bar US and Israeli ships, require compensation from countries it considers hostile, and impose cargo-based penalties, with full reopening conditioned on lifting the US maritime blockade.
3. US initial jobless claims rose 1,000 to 199,000, below the 202,000 forecast and near a 57-year low, a third consecutive week under 200,000. Continuing claims increased 24,000 to 1.801 million.
4. US nonfarm unit labour costs rose 1.3% in Q2, matching Q1 but well below the 2.1% forecast, as compensation rose 2.7% and productivity 1.4%. The combination leaves inflation, not employment, as the swing variable for September.
5. Japan's household spending fell 3.3% year-on-year in June, a seventh straight decline and the steepest, against expectations for a 1.0% rise. Month-on-month spending dropped 6.4%, the sharpest since January 2021.
6. Euro area retail sales fell 0.3% month-on-month in June, reversing most of May's gain and missing the 0.1% rise expected. Annual growth of 0.7% was the weakest since July 2024.
7. July payrolls land at 14:30 CET, consensus +80,000 after June's +57,000, with unemployment seen unchanged at 4.2% and average hourly earnings at 3.5% year-on-year.
8. More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1. None today

Earnings events

Earnings highlights for the rest of the week:

1. Thursday (yesterday): Siemens, Deutsche Telekom, Rheinmetall, Cloudflare, DataDog, Airbnb, Constellation Energy
2. Friday: Vistra, Take-Two Interactive Software
3. Saturday: Berkshire Hathaway

Next week

1. Monday: Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile
2. Tuesday: Sea Limited, Lumentum Holdings, Cardinal Health, Coreweave, Constellation Software, Super Micro Computer
3. Wednesday: Cisco Systems, Tokio Marine, Coherent, Nebius Group
4. Thursday: Applied Materials, Brookfield Corporation, Netease, Nu Holdings, RWE, AP Moller, Adyen, Orsted

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

1. USA: The S&P 500 fell 0.2%, the Dow Jones lost 0.9% and the Nasdaq 100 declined 0.4% on Thursday as rising oil prices and mixed earnings pulled stocks back from record territory. Western Digital dropped 13.0% and Sandisk fell 6.8% after strong results failed to clear already high expectations, while AppLovin sank 19.7% after quarterly revenue missed estimates. SpaceX gained 6.1% as a large lockup expiry passed without the wave of insider selling investors had feared. Attention turned to Friday’s payrolls report, which could reshape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next rate move.
2. Europe: The STOXX 600 rose 0.2% to a third straight record close, while the Euro STOXX 50 gained 0.4% and the FTSE 100 slipped 0.2%, as earnings strength outweighed Middle East uncertainty. WPP surged 28.6% after beating organic growth expectations, and Deutsche Telekom climbed 6.3% after expanding its 2026 share buyback plan. Siemens fell 4.5% as its Digital Industries business missed expectations, while Rheinmetall lost 3.5% after cutting its 2026 sales outlook. Investors next watched US payrolls for clues on rates and the broader risk mood.
3. Asia: Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.7% and South Korea’s KOSPI slipped 1% on Friday, while China’s CSI 300 gained 0.2% and broader Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan were flat, as investors waited for US payrolls and tracked another rise in oil prices. Singapore banks were in focus after OCBC reported a 22% rise in second-quarter profit to a record S$2.2 billion, while UOB posted a 10% increase to S$1.48 billion; both results were helped by stronger wealth-management fees. OCBC raised its interim dividend to S$0.47 and UOB declared S$0.88, keeping capital returns in focus.
4. More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

VIX 15.15 | VIX FUTURES: 17.30 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: NORMAL (134.73) | MARKET REGIME: LOW-VOLATILITY BULL | AS OF ~06:00 CET

1. Renewed Strait of Hormuz doubts pushed Brent higher and knocked equities lower for a second session, yet equity volatility kept compressing. VIX fell 4.2% to 15.15, VIX9D dropped 8.2% to 12.66 and VVIX eased to 88.72. Only VIX1D firmed, up 3.6% to 12.55, pricing the payrolls print.
2. The cash curve stayed in contango to VIX3M 18.69, with SKEW normal at 134.73. Cross-asset vol diverged: OVX rose 11.4% to 57.34 and MOVE gained 3.5%. SPXW prices a 44.8-point (0.58%) move today and 103.2 points (1.34%) into 14 August, with July payrolls the catalyst.
3. For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the Options Insights

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~64,233 -0.04% | ETHEREUM ~1,896 -0.32% | IBIT 36.49 -0.68% | ETHA 14.40 -0.55% | AS OF ~05:55 CET

1. Crypto equities carried the weakness while spot held steady. A firmer dollar and higher Treasury yields ahead of payrolls framed the session. Block fell 6.2% and Coinbase 3.0%, with miners broadly lower: CleanSpark down 5.6%, Marathon 5.3% and Cipher 2.7%. Both spot ETFs slipped.
2. Corporate treasuries moved in opposite directions. Block added 85 bitcoin, lifting holdings to 9,117, weeks after joining the S&P 500. Strategy disclosed a 1,638 bitcoin sale for $104.73 million, its third of 2026, funding dividends and buybacks.

Commodities

1. Oil: Brent rose 1.18% to $83.46 in the Asian session after a move above $83 in late US hours, extending Thursday's more than 5% surge, while WTI added 0.98% to $78.05 following a 3.3% Thursday gain. The move coincides with the absence of a durable Strait of Hormuz agreement and Iranian reports of strikes on hostile targets, both cited as contributing factors. Despite the two-day rebound, crude remains down roughly 5% on the week, having sold off earlier on expectations of a US-Iran accord. Energy equities followed the move, with the energy sector ETF up 1.48% and oil and gas exploration up 1.13%, while natural gas eased 0.42% to $2.629. Oil implied volatility repriced sharply, with OVX up 11.4%.
2. Metals: Gold futures rose 0.60% to $4,325.50 with spot around $4,261.85, consolidating a 4.1% single-day gain in the prior session that was the largest since February and leaves the metal up more than 5% in August. The advance has been attributed to a technical breakout alongside continued central bank and institutional demand. Silver outperformed, up 1.59% to $62.585, compressing the gold-silver ratio to 69.1. Precious-metals volatility cooled even as prices rose, with GVZ down 2.85% and silver vol down 3.08%.
3. Industrial metals: Copper rose 0.57% to $6.7470 on Comex and traded near a record on the LME, up as much as 1.8% to $14,369.50 per tonne, after the Democratic Republic of Congo halted exports of copper and cobalt concentrates. Analysts noted the ban captures only a modest share of Congolese exports, but it adds to a tightening supply narrative at a time when US copper imports are running at their highest monthly volume in at least 12 years.
4. More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

1. US treasury yield rebounded sharply Thursday as crude oil prices did likewise, with considerable focus on the July US jobs report after soft ADP private payrolls and ISM Services Employment survey sub-index numbers earlier this week. The benchmark 2-year treasury yield has rebounded to 4.25% after trading as low as 4.18% mid-week, while the benchmark 10-year treasury yield trades at 4.68%, up eight basis points from its Thursday lows.
2. Core European and Asia-Pacific bonds sold off in sympathy with US treasuries. Germany's 10-year advanced three basis points to 3.14% and the UK's rose five to 4.94%, while Japan's 10-year added two basis points to 2.785% and Australia's jumped nine to 5.01%.
3. The "sell America" debate intensified, with global investors questioning the Fed's inflation-fighting credibility under Warsh. JPMorgan lifted its year-end 10- and 30-year yield forecasts and pushed back its expectation for larger auctions by six months, citing the Treasury's changed issuance guidance as discomfort with rising yields. Japan's intervention last week adds Treasury repatriation risk, since reserves deployed to support the yen reduce Japanese demand for US paper. Bond volatility firmed, with MOVE up 3.45% to 76.12.

Currencies

1. The US dollar rebounded slightly ahead of Friday’s US jobs report and as US treasury yields bounced back. USDJPY rose above 158.00 late Thursday for the first time since last week and as high as 158.57 before finding resistance. The range in EURUSD was more muted as it eased slightly lower to the 1.1520 area.
2. The Swiss franc remains weak after a modest kneejerk strengthening move last week on Japan’s intervention in the Japanese yen, with EURCHF having now rebounded to new highs for 2026, trading as high as 0.9370 before finding resistance. USDCHF rebounded back above 0.8125 after a 0.8060 area low Thursday.
3. More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis