Market drivers and catalysts
Macro: Washington readies fresh Iran sanctions as a heavy week of catalysts begins
Equities: US and European shares rebounded Friday, while Asian equities fell Monday as Samsung and Alibaba pressured technology stocks.
Digital Assets: Fund demand carried the large proxies while the miners went their own way
Commodities: Oil trades lower before new sanctions while bullion extended its run
Fixed Income: US treasury yields remain near cycle highs at long end. German-France yield spread in focus as France 10-year yield at 17-year high.
Currencies: Major currencies sluggish, AUD jumped higher Friday.
Macro
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent vowed the “toughest” sanctions in history against Iran, aiming to intensify economic pressure on the country and its trading partners. The move could further tighten global oil supplies, with Iranian exports already disrupted and offers to China reduced. Tehran dismissed the threat, saying it can withstand sanctions and maintain trade elsewhere, while tensions in the Strait of Hormuz remain high and traffic is still below normal.
US–Canada trade talks collapsed on Friday, with disagreements over tariffs on Canadian medium- and heavy-duty vehicles among the key sticking points. The new 50% US tariffs on around USD 20 billion of Canadian goods have now taken effect, prompting Prime Minister Mark Carney to vow a dollar-for-dollar response on selected US goods from September 8. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said no new talks are currently planned and that Washington is instead preparing measures in response to Canada’s retaliation.
The US flash S&P Global Composite PMI rose to 56 in August 2026 from 54.5 in July, the strongest since April 2022. Faster services growth offset softer manufacturing, where output rose at the weakest pace in 13 months amid supply issues. Backlogs increased as delivery times lengthened. Hiring grew at the fastest rate since early 2025 and confidence hit a nine-month high. Selling price pressures eased, though input costs remained elevated on higher energy prices.
The week carries two outsized catalysts. Nvidia reports second-quarter results on Wednesday 26 August after the US close, in our view the largest scheduled test of the AI trade this month. The Jackson Hole symposium then runs from 27 to 29 August, with Chair Kevin Warsh delivering the keynote on Friday 28 August, the same session that brings the US personal consumption expenditures report. Today itself is quiet, with no scheduled US data and no US corporate reporting.
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Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)
No data of note today
The Jackson Hole symposium runs from 27 to 29 August, with Chair Kevin Warsh delivering his first keynote on Friday 28 August. The theme of the symposium is titled “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy” – seen as likely to deliver thoughts on the potential use of stablecoins for financial system plumbing, but the market is more curious about the Fed’s interest rate policy intentions.
Earnings events
Tuesday: Intuit, Zoom Communications
Wednesday: Nvidia, Crowdstrike, Salesforce, Synopsys, Agilent Technologies, HP, Okta
Thursday: Marvell Technology, Autodesk, Workday, Rubrik, Pernod Ricard
For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.
Equities
USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.4% on Friday, the Dow gained 1.0% and the Nasdaq 100 added 0.3%. Treasury measures to support long-term bond liquidity and resilient US business activity helped calm nerves after yields surged earlier in the week. Robinhood jumped 13.7% and Coinbase gained 8.2% as bitcoin rallied, while Ross Stores rose 4.4% after raising its annual profit forecast. Moderna added another 8.9% after its breakthrough melanoma vaccine results drove an extraordinary week. Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday now take centre stage.
Europe: The Stoxx 600 gained 0.6% on Friday, while Germany’s DAX rose 0.6%, France’s CAC 40 added 0.4% and the FTSE 100 climbed 0.6%, although European stocks still ended the week lower. Sentiment improved as eurozone business activity expanded at its fastest pace this year. Nibe Industrier jumped 8.8% after strong second-quarter results, while JD Sports rebounded 5.6% following Thursday’s sharp post-guidance selloff. Monte dei Paschi fell 1.3% after launching €34 billion of combined all-share offers for Banco BPM and Banca Generali, which declined 0.4% and 2.1%, respectively.
Asia: Asian equities moved lower on Monday, with the Kospi down around 3.0%, the Hang Seng falling 2.1% and the Nikkei 225 losing 0.5% as technology shares came under renewed pressure ahead of Nvidia’s earnings. Samsung Electronics plunged 8.9% after its record shareholder-return plan disappointed investors hoping for more aggressive buybacks, while SK Hynix fell 2.3%. Alibaba dropped 9.1% after pricing a $10.2 billion share placement at a discount, with the proceeds earmarked entirely for artificial intelligence investment. The region now faces a busy week of Nvidia earnings, central-bank events and further scrutiny of AI spending.
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Digital Assets
The listed proxies powered ahead on Friday while the miners split away. Coinbase gained 8.20% and Strategy 6.10%, with the two large US spot funds also sharply higher, but Cipher lost 8.40%, Riot 5.48% and CleanSpark 4.92%. Spot has since drifted lower in Asian hours.
Spot bitcoin and ether funds drew about USD 2.6 billion through Friday, reported as the strongest week of 2026, with bitcoin products taking USD 1.918 billion across five sessions. The regulator proposed its Regulation Crypto Assets framework on 18 August.
Commodities
Gold extended its recent strong gains as last week’s US Treasury intervention continued to reverberate across markets, raising the prospect of a weaker dollar while reinforcing demand for debasement trades amid growing concerns about US fiscal sustainability. Spot gold’s break back above its 200-day moving average, currently around USD 4,516, continues to attract fresh technical and momentum-driven demand, with prices reaching USD 4,656 during the Asian session. Traders and investors will be focusing on the dollar, US Treasury yields and, not least, the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium, where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is due to deliver his first keynote address on Friday, 28 August.
Oil: Crude slipped after a two-week rally as traders awaited details of the US plan to increase the economic pressure on Iran, due later Monday. Brent eased toward USD 93 after gaining around 13% over the past two weeks, while WTI traded near USD 86. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to unveil the measures and press US allies to participate. With the US-Iran war now in its sixth month and continuing to restrict global supplies of crude and refined products, it remains unclear how Washington can meaningfully increase the pressure on Tehran without targeting China, the main buyer of Iranian crude, and risking significant economic and geopolitical blowback.
The latest COT reporting week to 18 August covered the period leading up to last Wednesday’s surprise US Treasury bond buyback announcement, which subsequently triggered a rush into hard assets, particularly precious metals, while the accompanying dollar tumble provided broader support across commodities. Overall, however, the week belonged to agriculture which has seen continued demand since late June amid an increasingly supportive fundamental backdrop, helped by a softer dollar, firmer crude oil prices strengthening the biofuel link, lower-than-expected US corn yields, Russia-Ukraine attacks on grain infrastructure, and not least weather concerns.
Corn and wheat both starting the week adding to recent strong gains, supported by forecasts for a smaller US corn harvest and persistent tensions in the Black Sea region stoking concerns over global supplies. Over the weekend Ukraine’s Zelenskyy said Russia rejected Ukraine’s offer of a truce on attacks against ships carrying agricultural commodities through the Black Sea.
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Fixed Income
US treasury yields rose into the close of trading for the week on Friday, but dipped in early Monday trading as crude oil prices shied away from cycle highs. The benchmark US 10-year yield close just below the key 4.75% level that has nearly been touched on four occasions in the last few weeks of trading, but dipped toward 4.71% in early trading Monday. The benchmark 30-year yield trades in the middle of the recent range near 5.25% after posting a new 19-year high of 5.33% before the US Treasury announced it would increase its buyback programmed of long-date treasuries starting next month. At the front end of the curve, the benchmark US 2-year treasury yield rose five basis points Friday to close above 4.23%, its highest close in nearly two weeks.
Europe’s government bond yields have been tracking US treasury yields higher of late, with the benchmark 10-year German Bund trading near 3.25% for much of last week after posting near 16-year highs above 3.22% early last week. As well, the rise in yields is seeing a widening of the spread between German and other Eurozone members’ government bond yields. The France-German 10-year yield spread widened above 87 basis points last week, up from below 80 basis points two weeks ago and from near 60 basis points at the start of the summer. This is the widest the spread has been since a spike to 88 basis points in late 2024, when France was struggling to put together a budget for the upcoming year, triggering fears of a government collapse.
Currencies
The major currencies chopped within tight trading ranges Friday and early Monday as the market mulls the recent announcement of increased Treasury buybacks, nominally USD bearish, with the lack of follow-on response in US treasury yields. USDJPY dipped as low as 158.36 on Friday, but crawled back toward 159.00 by the close of trading for the week, near where it also trades in early European hours Monday. EURUSD, meanwhile, couldn’t maintain above 1.1700 on Friday, closing the week near 1.1680, where it also trades early Monday.
The Australian dollar firmed sharply on Friday, possibly inspired by the recent surge in precious metals prices, and rebounding from prior weakness after soft Australian employment data.
