Market Quick Take - Wall Street nears a record as Asia's chip jitters linger - 4 August 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

1. Macro: Iran talks resume as strong US manufacturing data and Friday's payrolls frame a cautious week.
2. Equities: US and European equities rallied on cheaper oil and AI strength, while Asian markets turned mixed as Korean chip volatility persisted.
3. Volatility: Iran de-escalation and AI earnings drove a Monday rally, though Asian chip volatility keeps VIX subdued into payrolls.
4. Digital Assets: Crypto equities extended Monday's rally as sentiment improved, while Hashdex became the first US spot bitcoin ETF to close.
5. Commodities: Oil bounced back from Monday's steep drop. Gold rangebound while copper surged to multi-week high.
6. Fixed Income: US treasury yields rebound slightly from Monday's drop as risk appetite returned. New high in short JGB yields.
7. Currencies:The yen gave back some intervention-driven gains while the dollar held broadly steady overnight.

Macro

1. Iran said talks to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are progressing, after Trump called off a planned strike and called his latest offer "Tehran's last chance," adding he expects a full reopening of the Strait.
2. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6 in July from 53.3, topping forecasts for the strongest expansion since May 2022, with faster output, solid new orders and a return to job growth.
3. The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI was revised up to 53.9 in July, matching June for a 12th straight month of expansion, though momentum softened with slower new orders and weaker exports.
4. US construction spending fell 0.1% in June to an annualised $2.17 trillion, missing expectations as residential activity declined; first-half spending was down 3.5% year-on-year.
5. Germany's retail sales fell 1.1% month-on-month in June, the sharpest drop since May 2025, while Swiss CPI cooled to 0.4% year-on-year in July, the weakest since March.
6. More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1. 1230 – US Jun. Trade Balance
2. 1230 – Canada Jun. International Merchandise Trade
3. 1400 – US Jun Factory Orders
4. 1400 – US Jun. JOLTS Job Openings
5. 2245 – New Zealand Q2 Employment and Wage data

Earnings events

Earnings highlights for the rest of the week:

1. Monday (yesterday): Palantir, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Marriott International
2. Tuesday: Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Caterpillar, Merck, HSBC Holdings, Amgen, Arista Networks, McDonald’s, Booking Holdings, Spotify, Pfizer, BP,
3. Wednesday: Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Western Digital, Sandisk, Walt Disney, Shopify, Siemens Energy, Uber, AppLovin, MercadoLibre, DoorDash, Infineon Technologies
4. Thursday: Siemens, Deutsche Telekom, Rheinmetall, Cloudflare, DataDog, Airbnb, Constellation Energy
5. Friday: Vistra, Take-Two Interactive Software,

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

1. US: The S&P 500 closed Monday up 1.5% at 7,600.50, within 0.1% of its record high, and the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.8% as easing Middle East tensions and AI-earnings strength drove the rally. Microsoft led with a 4.9% gain, Meta surged 6%, Alphabet +4.9% and Amazon +4.6% after crossing a $3 trillion market cap. Apple was the lone laggard, off 0.5%. After hours, Palantir jumped almost 15% on raised guidance and Snap beat Q2 revenue estimates, guiding Q3 in line. Tuesday's session is more cautious: Nasdaq 100 futures were up around 0.4% pre-market, but fresh South Korean chip volatility is capping follow-through as SK Hynix and Samsung remain volatile after Monday's chip rout.
2. Europe: The Stoxx 600 added 0.5% to 652.09, just shy of its record, as falling oil prices and AI-earnings momentum lifted sentiment. The DAX hit a fresh intraday record at 26,001, up 1.5%, and the CAC 40 touched its first intraday record since February, SAP led gains, up 4.4%. UK homebuilders jumped as much as 6.5% as markets pared Bank of England rate-hike bets on lower oil, while AstraZeneca fell 9.0% after reports of possible merger talks with Bristol Myers Squibb raised concerns about execution and the future of a major UK listing.
3. Asia: Asian equities diverged from Wall Street's rally Tuesday, with the MSCI Asia Pacific gauge down 0.7% as persistent South Korean chip volatility revived AI-valuation worries, a regional semiconductor gauge fell 1%. Australia's ASX 200 rose 1.3% and China's Shanghai Composite added 0.2%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped 0.5% and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 0.8% Monday.
4. More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

VIX 15.86 | VIX FUTURES: 17.81 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (139.96) | MARKET REGIME: TRANSITIONING (MIXED SIGNALS) | AS OF ~06:00 CET

1. Monday's US-Iran de-escalation and blowout AI earnings drove the S&P 500 to a 1.5% close within a whisker of a record, though a fresh South Korean chip selloff is capping follow-through Tuesday. VIX eased to 15.86 and VIX1D collapsed 23% to 9.43, pricing very little near-term risk.
2. The term structure stayed in contango out to VIX1Y at 22.90, SKEW held elevated at 139.96 and MOVE eased to 80.48. SPXW options imply a 30-point (0.39%) move for today's expiry and a 79-point (1.04%) range into Friday 7 August, with that day's payrolls the primary catalyst.
3. For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the Options Insights

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~63,751 +0.47% | ETHEREUM ~1,864 +0.27% | IBIT 36.16 +1.46% | ETHA 14.11 +0.28% | AS OF ~05:55 CET

1. Digital assets extended Monday's risk rally as US-Iran de-escalation lifted sentiment across markets, with spot holding a tight overnight range. IBIT and ETHA advanced alongside US equities, while miners led gains broadly, paced by an 8.2% move in Cifr and 8.0% in Iren.
2. Hashdex became the first US spot bitcoin ETF issuer to close a fund, confirming it will liquidate the $14.7 million DEFI product on 17 August after it failed to attract assets against larger rivals.

Commodities

1. In crude oil, October Brent traded just above USD 85 per barrel early Tuesday, bouncing from Monday’s steep sell-off to as low a USD 81.55/bbl as US President Trump called his latest offer on terms to Iran the country’s "last chance,". September WTI (front-month) was less volatile, bouncing slightly to USD 81.26 / bbl.
2. Gold remains mired in the middle of a tight 3,960-4,170 range that has been established over the last several weeks, with traders uninspired by the backdrop.
3. Silver is taking its lead more from gold than from copper, with the late rising sharply early Tuesday to USD 6.60/lb, the highest level since the June and now less than two percent below the highest level for the front contract month just below USD 6.70/lb.
4. More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

1. US Treasury yields rebounded slightly after Monday’s drop, with the 2-year and 10-year treasury benchmarks trading about two basis points higher from Monday’s close early Tuesday at 4.26% and 4.69% respectively. Japan’s government bond yields hit new highs for the cycle eat the front end as the 2-year JGB benchmark hit 1.57%
2. The Treasury lifted Q3 net borrowing guidance to $739 billion, up $68 billion; JPMorgan raised its year-end 10-year and 30-year yield targets on Fed-credibility doubts following Chair Warsh's limited guidance.

Currencies

1. USDJPY rebounded about 0.25% from Monday’s close to around 157.60 in early Tuesday trade, as the JPY gave back some of Monday's intervention-driven gains; Japan's Finance Ministry is estimated to have spent roughly $34 billion on Friday alone.
2. EURUSD was steady just above 1.1500 early Tuesday while AUDUSD managed to rebound above 0.7000 again, trading 0.7020 after Monday’s 0.6984 low.
3. More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis