Market Quick Take - Wider tariffs and another chip selloff as gold extends its run - 25 August 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

1. Macro: Washington widens tariffs on Canada and China and sanctions a broad Iranian network
2. Equities: US stock-index futures gained as pressure on technology shares eased ahead of key earnings from Nvidia
3. Digital Assets: Coins and the large funds advanced while the listed miners went the other way
4. Commodities: Gold rally pauses after strong run with crude lower for a second day
5. Fixed Income: Yields fell right along the curve on cheaper oil and buyback speculation
6. Currencies: The dollar partly recovers from recent losses

Macro

1. Washington imposed 50% tariffs on Canadian goods after talks collapsed, prompting Ottawa to vow equal retaliation. President Trump also said tariffs on autos, auto parts and steel will rise to 50% from 1 January 2027. Separately, the US is reportedly planning a 7.5% tariff on Chinese goods over alleged excess capacity ahead of a Trump-Xi summit next month, a move that would lift the average second-term tariff rate on China back to around 20%.
2. The Treasury sanctioned close to 60 Iran-linked entities, individuals and vessels tied to nuclear, missile, cyber and oil networks, extending across digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping, as well as a network of brokers and shadow-fleet vessels. Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated that a major financial institution, potentially in China, could be added to the sanctions list this week, raising the risk of secondary effects on trade and financial flows.
3. The one piece of US data was soft. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.08 in July from 0.06 in June, with three of its four broad categories deteriorating and personal consumption and housing turning sharply negative. The three-month moving average slipped to -0.04 from 0.01, pointing to a modest loss of economic momentum.
4. More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1. 0600 – Germany 2Q GDP
2. 0800 – Germany August IFO Business Climate
3. 1400 – US July New Home Sales
4. 1400 – US August Consumer Confidence

The Jackson Hole symposium runs from 27 to 29 August, with Chair Kevin Warsh delivering his first keynote on Friday 28 August. The theme of the symposium is titled “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy” – seen as likely to deliver thoughts on the potential use of stablecoins for financial system plumbing, but the market is more curious about the Fed’s interest rate policy intentions.

Earnings events

1. Today: Intuit, Zoom Communications
2. Wednesday: Nvidia, Crowdstrike, Salesforce, Synopsys, Agilent Technologies, HP, Okta
3. Thursday: Marvell Technology, Autodesk, Workday, Rubrik, Pernod Ricard

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

1. US: Chipmakers led a mixed close. The S&P 500 slipped 0.28% to 7,652.86 and the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.97% to 29,023.18, while the Dow rose 0.26% to 53,422.35; the Russell 2000 lost 0.76% and the equal-weighted S&P added 0.10%, which in our view may point to a decline concentrated in the largest technology names rather than a broad one. Nvidia fell 2.91% to 208.48, a seventh consecutive losing session and its longest such run since 2022, with AMD down 3.49%, Broadcom 2.63% and the semiconductor tracker 2.43%. Seagate lost 6.5%, the largest single-stock decline in the index, and Tesla fell 3.83%. Meta rose 1.66%, Amazon 1.33% and Alphabet 0.94%. Financials led the sectors, up 1.29%, and utilities added 1.05%, while technology fell 1.78% and energy 0.83%. During the Asian session, US stock-index futures gained as pressure on technology shares eased, signaling tentative optimism ahead of key earnings tomorrow from Nvidia after the US close.
2. Europe: Monday closed mixed with a weaker bias. The Stoxx Europe 600 finished unchanged at 654.22, the Euro Stoxx 50 eased 0.22% to 6,447.99, the DAX slipped 0.11% to 26,106.60 and the CAC 40 lost 0.37% to 8,453.01, while the AEX rose 0.36% and the FTSE 100 added 0.06% to 10,861. Euro-area banks were the standout, up 0.72%, and precious-metals miners outperformed on bullion's advance. Canada's S&P/TSX closed 0.3% higher despite the tariff news, with gold producers offsetting industrials.
3. Asia: Chinese technology carried Monday's damage. Alibaba fell 8.5% in Hong Kong after placing 710 million new shares at HK$112.70 to raise HK$80 billion, about USD 10.2 billion, for artificial-intelligence chips, models and infrastructure, an 8.4% discount to the previous close; the MSCI China index lost 2.3% in US trading. This morning has been steadier than the open suggested: the Nikkei 225 is 0.39% higher at 65,782, the Kospi has pared a roughly 3% opening drop to 0.61% lower at 6,656, the Hang Seng is 0.25% lower and Australia's ASX 200 0.59% higher. SoftBank is separately planning a record JPY 1 trillion retail bond sale.

1. More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Digital Assets

1. Coins and the two large US spot funds advanced overnight while the listed miners went the other way. Strategy gained 2.83% and Bitmine 5.74%, but Coinbase fell 3.76%, IREN 4.94% and Cipher 2.57%. Solana added 2.61% and XRP 2.13%.
2. The Senate is scheduled to vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act on 15 September, after the majority leader filed a cloture motion; the procedural step needs 60 votes and no floor vote took place before the summer recess.

Commodities

1. Oil: Crude trades lower for a second day as the US ramps up economic pressure on Iran and its trading partners in an effort to force the resumption of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. With no further military escalation and some tankers slipping through after buying heavily discounted oil to compensate for the elevated transit risk, the market remains in limbo. However, the drawn-out disruption continues to tighten the availability of crude and, not least, refined products, leaving the market vulnerable to renewed price spikes should flows deteriorate again.
2. Gold: Gold steadies following a four-day rally that lifted the price by around USD 350 before giving back roughly USD 78 after hitting a fresh three-month high near USD 4,700 during the Asian session. So far this month, investors have lifted total ETF holdings by around 60 tonnes, putting August on track for the strongest monthly inflow since last September, while hedge funds have boosted their net long in COMEX gold futures to an 11-month high. Both developments highlight how a combination of renewed momentum, a technical breakout and heightened political and financial concerns can rapidly translate into stronger demand for bullion.
3. More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

1. Treasuries rallied along the curve on Monday, with the long end leading. The 10-year yield fell 3 basis points to 4.706% and the 30-year 4.1 basis points to 5.232%, a move that began with cheaper oil and gathered pace on a report that the Treasury General Account could be used to fund expanded buybacks. A little of that has come back this morning, the 10-year at 4.716% and the 30-year at 5.241%, with the two-year at 4.249%. The long-bond fund gained 0.62% and rate volatility barely moved, MOVE up 0.79% to 73.98.

Currencies

1. USD: The dollar held onto Monday’s gains, with the DXY having recovered more than half of the losses suffered following last week’s US Treasury buyback announcement. The greenback strengthened after Bessent said the US would seek to cut Iran off from the global financial system, underscoring the dollar’s central role in global trade and finance while also boosting its traditional haven appeal.
2. CAD: The Canadian dollar remains under pressure after US-Canada trade talks collapsed and Trump threatened to double auto tariffs, sending USDCAD back towards Monday’s high around 1.3860.
3. JPY: USDJPY rose to 159.40 as the yen weakened after Bessent refrained from providing further signals on US debt-management measures that could weigh on long-term yields. Meanwhile, a former BOJ board member flagged a September rate hike as likely, offering a potential source of yen support as the pair approaches the psychologically important 160 level.
4. More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis