The first US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report of 2026 delivered mixed messages to global markets. December job growth came in at just 50K, below expectations, confirming a cooling trend in hiring momentum. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.4%, easing recession concerns and highlighting ongoing labor market resilience.
Sector-wise, manufacturing jobs continued to contract, while government hiring picked up, and average hourly earnings rose 0.3% m/m, in line with expectations — suggesting wage pressures remain manageable. Overall, markets are re-pricing the outlook toward a soft-landing adjustment rather than economic deterioration, setting the stage for portfolio rebalancing early in 2026.
Market Snapshot:
- US Equities: S&P 500 closed at a record high, Nasdaq led by AI-related tech gains, while Dow Jones stayed resilient on defensive and financial stocks.
- FX: The US dollar remains firm near recent highs; JPY weakened further despite BoJ tightening signals.
- Commodities: Gold pulled back from highs but retains medium-term support; oil stabilized amid geopolitical supply concerns.
- Crypto: Bitcoin consolidated above $91,000, awaiting upcoming inflation data for direction.
Markets now shift focus from holiday-driven trading to macro fundamentals, with volatility and tactical positioning expected to increase in the weeks ahead.
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