AUDCAD Price Action Forecast Update: Bears Hit 0.97900 After Resistance Retest

AUDCAD reached 0.97900, completing the bearish target outlined in the October 27 price forecast. The move followed rejection at 0.98500–0.98750, where broken weekly and daily support had turned into resistance.

The original AUDCAD price forecast favored sellers because the weekly and daily charts showed bearish market structure, with daily price trading below the 50 EMA. The trade idea centered on a retest of resistance and bearish confirmation before a continuation lower.

That bearish trade has now reached its objective. Here is how the weekly structure, daily momentum and resistance retest supported the setup.

Key Takeaways

1. AUDCAD reached the original bearish target at 0.97900.
2. Former support at 0.98500–0.98750 became the key resistance zone.
3. Weekly and daily bearish structure supported the downside outlook.
4. Rejection around the head-and-shoulders neckline added to the bearish interpretation.
5. Daily price below the 50 EMA reinforced the weaker momentum.
6. The original bullish alternative required a break above 0.98750 and a successful support retest.

Why 0.98500–0.98750 Mattered on AUDCAD’s Weekly Chart

Weekly Price Action Analysis: AUDCAD Rejected Former Support at 0.98500–0.98750 Near the Head-and-Shoulders Neckline.

The 0.98500–0.98750 zone had previously acted as support. Once AUDCAD broke below it, the focus shifted to whether buyers could reclaim that area or sellers would defend it as resistance.

The weekly rejection supported the bearish case. Buyers struggled to recover the broken zone, while selling pressure around the head-and-shoulders neckline added to the evidence that the recovery was losing strength.

This change of role is central to understanding market structure alongside support and resistance. The breakdown established the bearish context; the retest showed how price responded when it returned to the level.

AUDCAD Daily Analysis: Resistance and the 50 EMA Supported the

Bearish Setup

Daily Price Action Analysis: AUDCAD Rejected 0.98500–0.98750 Resistance, Supporting the Bearish Continuation Setup.

At the time of the forecast, the daily chart aligned with the bearish weekly structure. Rejection at 0.98500–0.98750 suggested sellers were limiting recovery attempts.

Daily Technical Analysis: AUDCAD Traded Below the 50 EMA as Resistance Limited Recovery Attempts.

Price also traded below the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), reinforcing the weaker momentum. The EMA supported the analysis, while the reaction at resistance provided the more direct evidence of selling pressure.

Read more about using the EMA alongside price action.

How the AUDCAD Break-and-Retest Trade Reached 0.97900

Daily Bearish Setup: A Retest and Rejection at 0.98500–0.98750 Targeted a Decline Toward 0.97900.

The original forecast used a break-and-retest price action setup. The plan required more than a move into resistance; it called for evidence that sellers were defending the zone.

The original confirmation conditions were:

1. Retest: Price returned to 0.98500–0.98750 from below.
2. Rejection: A completed bearish rejection or engulfing candle at resistance signaled that buyers had failed to reclaim the zone.
3. Follow-through: A move below the rejection candle’s low provided additional confirmation for a potential decline toward 0.97900.

Bearish candlestick confirmation at key levels helps distinguish an initial reaction from a more developed continuation setup.

Bearish Trade Outcome: AUDCAD Reached 0.97900, Completing the Original Downside Target.

The bearish trade subsequently reached 0.97900, completing the original downside objective. The target is now a recorded outcome of this setup, rather than a level the trade is still waiting to reach.

What Was the Alternative Bullish Scenario?

Original Bullish Scenario: A Break Above 0.98750 and Successful Support Retest Could Have Supported a Recovery Toward 0.99100.

The October 27 forecast also outlined the conditions that would have challenged the bearish view. Buyers needed a decisive daily close above 0.98750, followed by a retest of 0.98500–0.98750 as support.

A completed bullish rejection or bullish engulfing candle, followed by upward movement, would have strengthened the recovery case toward 0.99100.

That was the forecast’s conditional alternative. The completed trade reviewed here followed the bearish scenario and reached 0.97900.

AUDCAD Support and Resistance Levels in the Original Forecast

Final Take: AUDCAD’s Bearish Target Was Reached

The weekly chart established the bearish context, while the daily chart showed rejection at resistance and weaker momentum below the 50 EMA. These signals supported the original plan to watch for a failed retest at 0.98500–0.98750.

AUDCAD went on to reach 0.97900, completing the forecast’s bearish objective. The result illustrates how market structure, support turning into resistance and candlestick confirmation can work together in a price action trade plan.

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