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      By-election key for GBP today

      Published: just now

      equals money daily market commentary gbp thursday 26 february 2026

      Key takeaways

      • US and Iran set for third round of talks

      ‍

       

      ‍

      Yesterday's currency recap

      Market trading was range-bound with a slight USD bias to the downside; JPY was notably weak; GBP gains were sustained by an improved risk sentiment but capped by political risk. AUD continued to outperform amid relative macro strength and rising rate expectations – all set against the backdrop of tariff uncertainty and global policy divergence.

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      Today's GBP rates

      Currency pairDaily move*Indicative rate**
       
      GBPAUD-0.36%1.9043
      GBPCAD0.33%1.8539
      GBPCHF0.28%1.0470
      GBPDKK0.18%8.5757
      GBPEUR0.18%1.1478
      GBPJPY0.75%211.837
      GBPNOK0.26%12.943
      GBPNZD0.01%2.2615
      GBPSEK0.13%12.2308
      GBPUSD0.41%1.3546
      * Daily move shown versus prior close.
      ** Indicative rates for information only.

      ‍
      *Daily move - against G10 rates as of 17:00 GMT, 25.02.26

      ** Indicative rates - interbank rates as of 17:00 GMT, 25.02.26

      ‍

      Key data points

      CurrencyEventPeriodConsensusPrevious
       
      USDInitial Jobless Claims21-Feb—206k
      JPYTokyo CPI YoYFeb1.40%1.50%
      JPYTokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoYFeb1.70%2.00%
      JPYIndustrial Production YoYJan P5.00%2.60%
      JPYRetail Sales YoYJan0.10%-0.90%
      JPYIndustrial Production MoMJan P5.60%-0.10%

      ‍

      What we think

      Today's spotlight falls on US labour data, Tokyo inflation, and UK political risk. In the US, Initial Jobless Claims (prev. 206k) will act as a pulse check on labour market resilience. A meaningful rise would lean USD-negative, while another contained print reinforces the higher-for-longer Fed narrative and supports the USD at the margin. Geopolitics will be agenda with Iran and the US set to have a third round of nuclear talks in Geneva.

      In Japan, focus is squarely on Tokyo CPI (YoY seen 1.4%, ex-fresh food 1.7%), both expected to cool from prior readings. A softer inflation print would likely temper normalisation expectations at the Bank of Japan and weigh on JPY, while any upside surprise could quickly revive rate-hike pricing and support the yen.‍ 

       

      GBP has eased off of yesterday’s highs ahead of today’s Gorton and Denton by-elections. Market pricing (~70% Greens, 20% Reform, 10% Labour) keeps GBP trading with a political risk premium. A Greens outcome would likely reinforce concerns of a leftward tilt and weigh modestly on GBP; Reform less so; Labour would be seen as stabilising. As such, GBP crosses remain headline-sensitive into the vote.

       

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      We specialise in currency guidance

      Our team of currency experts are here to help you get more from your money when making international payments. We will work with you to understand your payment needs and offer specialised guidance on the best options available to you. Over the last 19 years we’ve helped over a million customers and last year alone processed over £12bn. We’re tried and trusted, and we’re ready to help you.

      ‍

      Have a great day.

       

      Equals delivers a robust accounts and payments infrastructure tailored specifically for CFD brokers, trading platforms, digital asset firms and more.

      This content may have been written by a third party. LiquidityFinder makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplies by any third-party. This content is information only, and does not constitute financial, investment or other advice on which you can rely.
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