just now
- ECB holds rates at 2.15%, signaling a “higher for longer” bias as inflation steadies above target.
- Fed rate cut odds surge, with markets pricing nearly 90% probability for easing at the September FOMC.
- EUR/USD technicals eye 1.1788 breakout, with U.S. CPI and ECB decision set to drive the next decisive move.
ECB Rate Decision: A Pause with “Higher for Longer” Bias
The European Central Bank (ECB) is pricing in a deposit rate unchanged at 2.15% this week, halting the easing cycle that had been underway since mid-2024. Inflation in the Eurozone ticked up to 2.1% in August, slightly above target, which reinforced policymakers’ decision to pause.
Officials signaled that while the economy remains resilient, risks tied to food prices, tariffs, and global supply disruptions still warrant caution. Investors now expect rates to remain stable into 2026, with only limited chances of further cuts.
This policy steadiness, set against lingering inflationary pressures, has lent near-term support to the euro.
Fed Rate Forecast: Markets Fully Expect a September Cut
The latest CME FedWatch data for the September 17, 2025 FOMC meeting shows an overwhelming 89.4% probability of a 25 bp cut, bringing the Fed funds target down to 400–425 bps. A smaller 10.6% chance remains for a deeper 50 bp cut to 375–400 bps. Markets assign zero probability to a hold or hike.
This dovish repricing is tied to the weak U.S. August jobs report and rising unemployment. With growth momentum fading, the Fed is expected to move toward accommodation to ease pressure on the labor market.
- Implication: ECB holding steady vs. Fed cutting widens relative policy divergence, a dynamic that favors euro upside.
- Caveat: Markets have already priced in cuts—meaning EUR/USD may see “buy the rumor, sell the news” dynamics if Powell fails to hint at deeper easing.
Impact on EUR/USD
- Bullish Euro Factors: ECB pause + resilient inflation = reduced odds of further cuts. Fed leaning dovish = weaker dollar.
- Dollar Vulnerability: Lower U.S. yields diminish the greenback’s attractiveness, opening the door for EUR/USD to climb toward 1.18–1.20.
- Short-Term Risk: If the Fed only delivers a 25 bp cut without dovish guidance, EUR/USD could briefly correct lower on profit-taking.
Previous Forecast vs. Price Action Confirmation
On Monday, we highlighted the blue demand zone (around 1.16844–1.17141) as the critical area for a potential bullish reversal. The forecast anticipated that if EUR/USD respected this demand zone, price could build a base and push higher toward the 1.1760–1.1780 region.
During the London session yesterday, that bullish scenario played out nicely as mentioned in the webinar. Price dipped into the highlighted demand zone, swept short-term liquidity, and then reclaimed structure with a strong impulsive leg to the upside. The rebound confirmed the demand zone’s significance, with buyers stepping in aggressively. This confirmation came from an M15 range breakout.
- Initial Retest: EUR/USD tested the 1.1700 handle, rejecting lower levels and leaving behind a Fair Value Gap (FVG) within the zone.
- London Session Move: Bullish order flow took over, breaking through minor structure highs and setting the tone for intraday momentum.
- Follow-Through: Price extended toward 1.1770, fulfilling the forecast’s upside target and validating the bullish roadmap.
This sequence underscores the importance of mapping key demand zones and combining them with liquidity concepts. What was initially outlined as a “potential bullish path” in the forecast has now transitioned into a confirmed move, providing traders with both validation of analysis and fresh opportunities for scaling into positions.
Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Near Key Levels
EUR/USD has extended higher into the 1.1788 region, stalling just under a major H4 supply zone. The recent London session push validated the bullish forecast from last week, but now price faces an inflection point. The H4 Fair Value Gap (1.1756–1.1757) will be critical in shaping the next move.
Price action shows early rejection from the highs, suggesting potential for a corrective dip. However, as long as the pair holds above the demand/FVG zone, the bullish structure remains intact.
Bullish Scenario
If EUR/USD respects the H4 Fair Value Gap (1.1756–1.1757) and buyers step in to defend the zone, the market structure would shift into a higher-low formation. Such a move would signal that the bullish order flow remains intact, paving the way for continuation higher. A decisive break above the 1.1788 intraday high would serve as confirmation, opening the path toward higher objectives.
- Controlled pullback into the H4 Fair Value Gap (1.1756–1.1757) holds firm.
- Buyers defend the zone, creating higher-low structure.
- Break above 1.1788 confirms bullish continuation.
Targets: 1.1820, 1.1850, and extended upside toward 1.1880 if momentum accelerates.
Catalyst: dovish Fed tone, weaker U.S. CPI, or ECB hawkish reinforcement.
Bearish Scenario
If the pair fails to hold the H4 Fair Value Gap and breaks decisively below 1.1750, bearish pressure could intensify. This would shift intraday sentiment toward distribution, opening the door for a deeper correction back into prior demand levels. The move would likely represent a shakeout before bulls attempt to regain control, but the downside risks must be respected.
- Price fails to hold the H4 Fair Value Gap and breaks below 1.1750.
- Intraday bearish momentum deepens.
Targets: 1.1720 as the first support, followed by 1.1685 (prior demand zone).
Catalyst: stronger-than-expected U.S. CPI, or ECB signaling a dovish shift despite steady rates.
Final Thoughts
EUR/USD has honored the bullish roadmap, rallying into the 1.1780s after rebounding from demand. The pair is now at a make-or-break point, with both bulls and bears watching the H4 Fair Value Gap as the short-term battleground.
This week’s two key events will ultimately decide the next leg:
- 1. U.S. CPI (Wednesday): A hot inflation print could revive USD strength and drag EUR/USD lower.
- 2. ECB Rate Decision (Thursday): The ECB’s pause has been priced in, but the tone of the statement will matter - hawkish language supports the euro, dovish hints open downside risks.
Until then, EUR/USD is likely to remain choppy near the 1.1750–1.1788 zone, awaiting a decisive breakout.
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Strategies That You Can Use
Looking for step-by-step approaches you can plug straight into the charts? Start here:
- How To Trade & Scalp Indices at the Open Using Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
- How to Trade Breakouts Effectively in Day Trading with Smart Money Concepts
- Complete Step-by-Step Guide to Day Trading Gold (XAU/USD) with Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
- The Power of Multi-Timeframe Analysis in Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
- Forex Trading Strategy for Beginners
- Mastering Candlestick Pattern Analysis with the SMC Strategy for Day Trading
- How to Use Fibonacci to Set Targets & Stops (Complete Guide)
- RSI Divergence Trading Strategy for Gold: How to Identify and Trade Trend Reversals
- Stochastics Trading Secrets: How to Time Entries in Trending Markets using Stochastics
- Gold Trading Stochastics Strategy: How to Trade Gold with 2R–3R Targets
- RSI Hidden Divergence Explained: How to Spot Trend Continuations Like a Pro
- Moving Averages Trading Strategy Playbook
- Mastering Fibonacci Trading Psychology - Trusting the Levels, Managing the Mind
- Mastering Price Action at Key Levels - How to Spot, Trade, and Win at the Most Crucial Zones
- Mastering Retests: How to Enter with Confirmation After a Breakout
Indicators / Tools for Trading
Sharpen your edge with proven tools and frameworks:
- The Ultimate Guide to Risk Management in Trading - A Complete Compilation for 2025
- Moving Averages Trading Strategy Playbook
- How to Think Like a Price Action Trader
- Mastering Fibonacci Trading Psychology - Trusting the Levels, Managing the Mind
How To Trade News
News moves markets fast. Learn how to keep pace with SMC-based playbooks:
- Why Smart Money Concepts Work in News-Driven Markets - CPI, NFP, and More
- How to Trade NFP Using Smart Money Concepts (SMC)-A Proven Strategy for Forex Traders
- How to Trade CPI Like Smart Money - A Step-by-Step Guide Using SMC
Learn How to Trade US Indices
From NASDAQ opens to DAX trends, here’s how to approach indices like a pro:
- How to Start Trading Indices and Get into the Stock Market with Low Capital (2025 Guide)
- Best Indices to Trade for Day Traders | NASDAQ, S&P 500, DAX + Best Times to Trade Them
- How To Trade & Scalp Indices at the Open Using Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
- NAS100 - How to Trade the Nasdaq Like a Pro (Smart Money Edition)
How to Start Trading Gold
Gold remains one of the most traded assets - - here’s how to approach it with confidence:
- How to Swing Trade Gold (XAU/USD) Using Smart Money Concepts: A Simple Guide for Traders
- Complete Step-by-Step Guide to Day Trading Gold (XAU/USD) with Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
- The Ultimate Guide to Backtesting and Trading Gold (XAU/USD) Using Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
- Why Gold Remains the Ultimate Security in a Shifting World
- How to Exit & Take Profits in Trading Gold Like a Pro: Using RSI, Range Breakdowns, and MAs as Your Confluence
How to Trade Japanese Candlesticks
Candlesticks are the building blocks of price action. Master the most powerful ones:
- Mastering the Top Japanese Candlesticks: The Top 5 Candlesticks To Trade + Top SMC Candlestick Pattern
- How to Trade Candlestick Patterns with High Probability: A Complete Guide for Beginners
- The Top Japanese Candlestick Guide: What is an Engulfing Pattern and How to Trade It?
- Piercing Pattern Candlestick Explained: How to Trade It - Step-By-Step Guide
- Morning & Evening Star Candlestick Patterns - How to Trade Market Reversals with Confidence
How to Start Day Trading
Ready to go intraday? Here’s how to build consistency step by step:
- 5 Steps to Start Day Trading: A Strategic Guide for Beginners
- 8 Steps How to Start Forex Day Trading in 2025: A Beginner’s Step-by-Step Guide
- 3 Steps to Build a Trading Routine for Consistency and Discipline - Day Trading Edition
- The Ultimate Guide to Understanding Market Trends and Price Action
- Trading with Momentum: The Best Trading Session to Trade Forex, Gold and Indices
Learn how to navigate yourself in times of turmoil
Markets swing between calm and chaos. Learn to read risk-on vs risk-off like a pro:
- How to Identify Risk-On and Risk-Off Market Sentiment: A Complete Trader’s Guide
- How to Trade Risk-On and Risk-Off Sentiment - With Technical Confirmation
- The Ultimate Guide to Understanding Market Trends and Price Action
Want to learn how to trade like the Smart Money?
Step inside the playbook of institutional traders with SMC concepts explained:
- Why Smart Money Concepts Work: The Truth Behind Liquidity and Price Action
- Mastering the Market with Smart Money Concepts: 5 Strategic Approaches
- Understanding Liquidity Sweep: How Smart Money Trades Liquidity Zones in Forex, Gold, US Indices
- The SMC Playbook Series Part 1: What Moves the Markets? Key Drivers Behind Forex, Gold & Stock Indices
- The SMC Playbook Series Part 2: How to Spot Liquidity Pools in Trading-Internal vs External Liquidity Explained
- Fair Value Gaps Explained: How Smart Money Leaves Footprints in the Market
- Accumulation, Manipulation, Distribution: The Hidden Cycle That Runs Every Market
- Institutional Order Flow - Reading the Market Through the Eyes of the Big Players
- London Session Trading Secrets: How Smart Money Sets the High & Low of the Day
- Mastering the New York Session - Smart Money Concepts Guide
Master the World’s Most Popular Forex Pairs
Forex pairs aren’t created equal - - some are stable, some are volatile, others tied to commodities or sessions.
- The Top 5 All-Time Best Forex Pairs to Trade
- Top Forex Pairs Beyond the Big Five
- EUR/USD: The King of Forex
- USD/JPY: The Fast Mover
- GBP/USD: The Volatile Cable
- AUD/USD: The Commodity Currency
- USD/CAD: The Oil-Backed Pair
- GBP/JPY: How to Trade The Beast
- Asian & London Session Secrets
- Mastering the New York Session
Stop Hunting 101
If you’ve ever been stopped out right before the market reverses - - this is why:
- Stop Hunting 101: How Swing Highs and Lows Become Liquidity Traps
- Outsmarting Stop Hunts: The Psychology Behind the Trap
- How to Lessen Risk From Stop Hunts in Trading
- How Stop Hunts Trigger Revenge Trading - Breaking the Pain Cycle
- How to Accept Stop Hunts Without Losing Discipline - Shifting From Frustration to Focus
Trading Psychology
Mindset is the deciding factor between growth and blowups. Explore these essentials:
- The Mental Game of Execution - Debunking the Common Trading Psychology
- Managing Trading Losses: Why You Can Be Wrong and Still Win Big in Trading
- The Hidden Threat in Trading: How Performance Anxiety Sabotages Your Edge
- Why 90% of Retail Traders Fail Even with Profitable Trading Strategies
- Top 10 Habits Profitable Traders Follow Daily to Stay Consistent
- Top 10 Trading Rules of the Most Successful Traders
- Top 10 Ways to Prevent Emotional Trading and Stay Disciplined in the Markets
- Why Most Traders Fail - Trading Psychology & The Hidden Mental Game
- Emotional Awareness in Trading - Naming Your Triggers
- Discipline vs. Impulse in Trading - Step-by Step Guide How to Build Control
- Trading Journal & Reflection - The Trader’s Mirror
- Overcoming FOMO & Revenge Trading in Forex - Why Patience Pays
- Risk of Ruin in Trading - Respect the Math of Survival
- Identity-Based Trading: Become Your Trading System for Consistency
- Trading Psychology: Aligning Emotions with Your System
- Mastering Fear in Trading: Turn Doubt into a Protective Signal
- Mastering Greed in Trading: Turn Ambition into Controlled Growth
- Mastering Boredom in Trading: From Restless Clicking to Patient Precision
- Mastering Doubt in Trading: Building Confidence Through Backtesting and Pattern Recognition
- Mastering Impatience in Trading: Turn Patience Into Profit
- Mastering Frustration in Trading: Turning Losses Into Lessons
- Mastering Hope in Trading: Replacing Denial With Discipline
- When to Quit on Trading - Read This!
- The Math of Compounding in Trading
- Why Daily Wins Matter More Than Big Wins
- Scaling in Trading: When & How to Increase Lot Sizes
Risk Management
The real edge in trading isn’t strategy - - it’s how you protect your capital:
- Mastering Risk Management: Stop Loss, Take Profit, and Position Sizing
- Why Risk Management Is the Only Edge That Lasts
- How Much Should You Risk per Trade? (1%, 2%, or Less?)
- The Ultimate Risk Management Plan for Prop Firm Traders - Updated 2025
- Mastering Position Sizing: Automate or Calculate Your Risk Like a Pro
Suggested Learning Path
If you’re not sure where to start, follow this roadmap:
- 1. Start with Trading Psychology → Build the mindset first.
- 2. Move into Risk Management → Learn how to protect capital.
- 3. Explore Strategies & Tools → Candlesticks, Fibonacci, MAs, Indicators.
- 4. Apply to Assets → Gold, Indices, Forex sessions.
- 5. Advance to Smart Money Concepts (SMC) → Learn how institutions trade.
- 6. Specialize → Stop Hunts, News Trading, Turmoil Navigation.
This way, you’ll grow from foundation → application → mastery, instead of jumping around randomly.
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