Nasdaq 100 Price Action Forecast Recap: NAS100 Falls After Support Break

The bearish setup outlined in my previous Nasdaq 100 price action forecast, published on 20 October 2026, has played out.

The analysis highlighted a breakdown below weekly support, bringing 29,800–30,400 into focus as potential resistance. Bearish weekly and daily market structure, together with price below the daily 50 EMA, supported the downside outlook. The subsequent decline followed the direction described in that forecast.

This NAS100 technical analysis recap explains the weekly support breakdown, daily momentum and key levels behind the move. It also reviews the original entry conditions and the alternative scenario.

The original downside target was 29,000. The bearish move supports the directional forecast, although the exact target being reached is not confirmed in this recap.

Key Takeaways

1. The NAS100 bearish setup played out after price broke below weekly support.
2. 29,800–30,400 was the former support zone identified as potential resistance.
3. Bearish weekly and daily structure supported the downside outlook.
4. Daily price below the 50 EMA added evidence of weaker momentum.
5. 29,000 was the original downside target.
6. The entry framework required a resistance retest, bearish candle confirmation and downward follow-through.

NAS100 Technical Analysis: What Supported the Bearish Forecast?

The original analysis combined a weekly support breakdown with bearish daily price action.

Each observation served a different purpose:

Together, these observations supported the bearish forecast.

This approach used price action analysis at key levels to connect the broader market direction with a specific area to monitor.

The subsequent decline followed that direction. The original entry conditions remained the reference for reviewing how the setup was executed.

1. NAS100 Weekly Analysis: Price Broke Below 29,800–30,400 Support

Weekly Timeframe Price Action Analysis: AUDJPY Rejects Weekly Resistance as the Bearish Trend Continues.

The weekly chart provided the foundation for the forecast. NAS100 broke below 29,800–30,400, showing that buyers could no longer maintain an established support area.

Weekly Timeframe Price Action Analysis: NAS100 Breaks Below Weekly Support, Establishing a Bearish Bias.

Key weekly observations:

1. Weekly support broke: Price moved below the 29,800–30,400 zone, where buyers had previously helped prevent further declines.
2. Market structure shifted bearish: The breakdown supported a broader change in direction.
3. Selling pressure increased: The weekly bearish candlestick reaction added evidence of seller control.
4. Former support became potential resistance: The broken zone became an important reference for assessing any recovery.

Understanding market structure and trend direction helps explain why this mattered. A support breakdown becomes more significant when it aligns with a broader bearish structural shift.

2. NAS100 Daily Analysis: Broken Support and the 50 EMA Supported the Bearish Outlook

Daily Timeframe Price Action Analysis: Broken Support and Price Below the 50 EMA Supported the Bearish Outlook.

The daily chart supported the weekly bearish case, with price trading below the 50-period exponential moving average after breaking weekly support.

Key daily observations:

1. Price traded below the 50 EMA: This added evidence of weaker momentum alongside the bearish market structure.
2. 29,800–30,400 became the key retest area: A recovery toward this zone would test whether sellers could defend former support as resistance.
3. Bearish confirmation remained essential: The original plan required a completed bearish rejection candle followed by downward follow-through.
4. The 50 EMA offered another resistance reference: Its significance would increase if it aligned with the retest zone during a recovery.
5. The subsequent decline followed the forecast: NAS100 moved lower in line with the original bearish outlook.

The change from support to potential resistance is a central part of support and resistance analysis. Reaching the zone alone would not confirm another decline; sellers still needed to show that they were defending it.

Understanding how to use the EMA with price action explains why the moving average served as supporting evidence.

By combining market structure with support and resistance, the forecast connected the broader bearish direction with a clear confirmation area.

NAS100 Bearish Setup Recap: How the Decline Followed the Forecast

Daily Timeframe Price Action Analysis: NAS100 Moves Lower in Line With the Previous Bearish Forecast.

The key development was that the bearish setup played out, with the subsequent decline following the anticipated direction.

The forecast had connected three observations:

1. NAS100 broke below weekly support.
2. 29,800–30,400 became potential resistance.
3. Bearish daily structure and price below the 50 EMA supported further downside.

The subsequent move was consistent with that analysis.

A successful directional forecast means price moved in the anticipated direction. An individual trade’s result also depends on its entry, stop-loss, position size and exit.

NAS100 Break-and-Retest Setup: Why Entry Confirmation Mattered

Daily Timeframe Price Action Analysis: The Original Bearish Entry Plan Required Sellers to Defend Former Support as Resistance.

The original forecast distinguished between a support breakdown and a confirmed retest opportunity.

The proposed break-and-retest setup followed this sequence:

1. Price breaks below 29,800–30,400.
2. Price returns to test the former support zone from below.
3. Sellers defend the area as resistance.
4. A completed bearish rejection or engulfing candle forms.
5. Price follows through below the confirmation candle’s low.

A bearish engulfing candlestick was one possible entry signal. A bearish pin bar could also indicate rejection when supported by the surrounding price action.

A return to resistance alone would not satisfy the plan. Sellers still needed to demonstrate that they were defending the level.

Waiting for a completed candle and subsequent follow-through also helps traders evaluate the risk of a false breakout.

For traders following a retest strategy, the lesson is to review the setup against the original conditions, even when the later move looks clear in hindsight.

NAS100 Support and Resistance: The Levels Behind the Setup

The original forecast used specific levels to define where the bearish case could strengthen or weaken.

These levels provided a framework for interpreting price behavior before the outcome was known.

The 29,000 target defined the original downside objective. Learning how to plan take-profit targets using market structure and risk-reward helps connect a potential exit with the broader trading plan.

NAS100 Bullish Alternative: What Would Have Weakened the Bearish Outlook?

Daily Timeframe Price Action Analysis: The Alternative Scenario Required a Bullish Structural Break and a Successful Resistance Reclaim.

The previous analysis also outlined a bullish alternative.

Buyers needed to break above the relevant daily lower high and reclaim 29,800–30,400. A subsequent pullback would then test whether that area could hold as support.

The bullish confirmation sequence involved:

1. A break and close above the relevant daily lower high.
2. A sustained reclaim of the weekly resistance zone.
3. A pullback that held the reclaimed area as support.
4. A completed bullish rejection or engulfing candle.
5. Upward follow-through toward the conditional 31,290 target.

A sustained recovery above the daily 50 EMA would have added evidence of improving momentum.

These conditions defined when the bearish reasoning would need to change. Understanding market trends through price action helps distinguish a temporary recovery from a developing reversal.

The bearish outcome does not make alternative planning unnecessary. It remains part of responding objectively when price behaves differently from expectations.

Final Take

The NAS100 bearish setup illustrates how several chart observations can support a directional outlook.

The analysis first established the weekly context. It then identified broken support, bearish daily structure and price below the 50 EMA. Finally, it outlined entry confirmation and the conditions that would weaken the setup.

The moving average provided trend context, while market structure, support and resistance, and candlestick behavior formed the main analytical framework.

For traders, the repeatable process is:

1. Identify the trend: Review weekly and daily market structure.
2. Mark support and resistance: Define the areas where price reactions matter.
3. Wait for confirmation: Follow the entry conditions established before the move.
4. Define risk: Use a clear invalidation point and a consistent risk management plan.
5. Size the position: Match position size to the planned risk and stop-loss distance.
6. Review execution: Check whether the trade followed the plan, rather than judging the decision only by its outcome.

The bearish setup played out in line with the earlier NAS100 forecast. Any new forecast requires a fresh chart assessment, since the historical levels and conditions discussed here may no longer describe the current market.

Plan before the move. Wait for confirmation. Execute when the setup meets your rules.

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Past performance and historical price movements are not reliable indicators of future results. Any price levels, targets, scenarios, or market outlooks discussed should be viewed as analysis rather than guarantees of future market performance. October 26, 2026