NASDAQ 100 Price Forecast: GDP Revision and Core PCE Shape Fed Path

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ACY Securities - Jasper Osita

Sep 2, 2025

GDP revised to 3.3% fuels growth optimism, while Core PCE inflation at 0.3% keeps Fed cautious ahead of September.

NASDAQ 100 Price Gains as GDP Revision Supports Growth

Core PCE Inflation at 0.3% Keeps Fed Cautious on Cuts

24,000 Level Becomes Critical Breakout Zone for NASDAQ 100 Price

NASDAQ 100 Price Balances Growth Optimism With Inflation Risks

The NASDAQ 100 Price is trading near its recent highs as investors weigh two critical macro drivers: a stronger U.S. growth outlook and sticky inflation. The index has rebounded from the 22,700 low, reclaiming levels near 23,700, which is now acting as near-term resistance.

The macro backdrop is mixed. On one hand, GDP growth was revised up to 3.3% in Q2, powered by AI-related capital expenditure and robust consumer demand. On the other, the Core PCE Price Index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—remains at 0.3% MoM (2.8% YoY), underscoring that inflation progress remains slow.

GDP Revision Lifts Growth Outlook

The upgraded GDP reading signals a stronger economy than previously estimated. With AI, cloud, and software investment leading the charge, NASDAQ 100 Price gains have fundamental support. Tech-heavy components stand to benefit directly from this growth narrative.

Core PCE Price Index MoM Forecasts at 0.3%

Inflation forecast remains steady at 0.3%, keeping the year-over-year rate at 2.8%. This stability gives the Fed little room to declare victory. Unless, numbers would turn a different direction in its release later on.For the NASDAQ 100 Price, sticky inflation risks temper valuations, especially in growth-driven stocks.

Why It Matters for NAS100

A rising GDP strengthens earnings momentum, while a stable but elevated Core PCE complicates Fed policy. Together, they create a “growth vs. inflation” dilemma that shapes how NASDAQ 100 Price will move in the weeks ahead.

Technical Outlook for NASDAQ

Price Action Narrative

*NASDAQ 100 Price coiling under resistance at 23,700.*

The NASDAQ 100 Price is consolidating near 23,700, showing signs of accumulation after its recent rally. Price action suggests two clear paths: either a clean breakout above resistance targeting 24,000, or a rejection into the demand zone highlighted on the chart.

Momentum favors buyers, but sustained support is critical for continuation.

Bullish Scenario

*Bullish projection for NASDAQ 100 Price, breakout above 23,750 targeting 24,000 and beyond.*

If NASDAQ 100 Price breaks and holds above 23,700–23,750, upside targets include:

24,000 psychological handle (immediate breakout level).

24,200–24,400 zone if bullish momentum extends on dovish Fed cues or cooling inflation.

Macro catalysts would include a softer Core PCE print or Fed guidance signaling readiness to ease.

Bearish Scenario

*Bearish projection for NASDAQ 100 Price, rejection at 23,700 leading to correction into demand zone.*

If NASDAQ 100 Price fails to hold above resistance and dips into the shaded demand area, a corrective wave could develop:

Initial support: 23,400–23,450.

Deeper pullback: 23,150–23,200.

A breakdown below 23,000 risks retesting the 22,750 low.

This bearish case would likely unfold if Core PCE surprises higher or if Fed officials adopt a more hawkish stance, triggering risk-off sentiment.

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