US Dollar Weakens as NFP Cancelled Again Amid Record Shutdown

Categories:

ProviderNews

Platforms

Tags:

ACY Securities - Japer Osita

Nov 13, 2025

The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report has been cancelled again as the government shutdown enters record territory, leaving markets in a data blackout and adding further strain to the U.S. Dollar.

The Dollar Index (DXY) failed to sustain its recent breakout, with the bullish fair value gap (FVG) and order block (OB) now flipped into resistance, reflecting fading bullish momentum.

The DXY sits at a key inflection between 99.40-99.90 - a range defined by a bearish order block and fading institutional support, as traders await fiscal clarity from Washington.

Market Narrative

The U.S. Dollar faces renewed uncertainty as the November Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report has been cancelled once again, extending the government’s data blackout caused by the ongoing shutdown. This marks the second consecutive month without an official labor report - a critical input for the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

In our previous coverage of the NFP postponement, we highlighted that missing employment data would distort rate expectations and weaken the dollar’s macro foundation. That warning has materialized: the shutdown continues to paralyze data flow, eroding both investor confidence and the Fed’s ability to assess economic conditions.

Markets are now running on substitute data such as private-sector payrolls and sentiment surveys, which lack the weight of official labor releases. This has created a fog of uncertainty across forex markets, leaving traders reluctant to take large USD directional bets.

Why the Government Shutdown Still Persists

The government shutdown - now over a month old - stems from a failure of Congress to approve federal funding for the fiscal year. What began as a budget standoff has evolved into a deeper institutional crisis.

Key reasons behind the ongoing shutdown:

Legislative Deadlock: The Senate and House remain divided on multiple spending bills. Republicans push for spending cuts and foreign aid reductions, while Democrats demand the preservation of healthcare and social funding.

Ideological Entrenchment: Both parties are using the standoff to secure political leverage ahead of the 2026 midterm cycle. Each vote failure further erodes trust, prolonging the impasse.

Economic Feedback Loop: As more agencies shut down, government services freeze and data collection halts. The longer the shutdown continues, the more politically costly it becomes to reopen.

The result: Washington’s paralysis is bleeding into the economy, weakening consumer sentiment and shaking confidence in U.S. governance - all of which weigh heavily on the U.S. Dollar’s stability.

Fundamental Fallout: NFP Cancelled Again

The cancellation of the NFP report - traditionally the single most influential U.S. data release - means the Federal Reserve will head into its next meeting partially blind. Without fresh employment data, assessing inflationary pressure, wage growth, and policy timing becomes guesswork.

This uncertainty has left traders in a holding pattern:

Policy Blind Spots: The Fed must rely on outdated or incomplete indicators.
Market Hesitation: FX markets are range-bound as liquidity thins.
Confidence Shock: Institutional investors are rotating to safer or clearer markets (like EUR and JPY), avoiding heavy USD exposure.

The narrative now revolves around information risk rather than rate speculation - a clear shift from monetary focus to political dysfunction.

Technical Outlook: DXY Loses Bullish Structure

The technical landscape confirms the dollar’s fading strength. On the 4-hour chart, DXY failed to hold the bullish fair value gap and order block that previously defended its uptrend. Those zones - once considered last lines of defense - have now flipped to resistance, forming a new bearish order block between 99.75-99.90.

This structural reversal echoes the broader fundamental tone: bulls are exhausted, and the dollar’s momentum has turned fragile.

Bullish Scenario - Rebound Toward 100.00 Before Resolution

A short-term rebound remains possible if DXY can hold above 99.40 and reclaim the 99.80-99.90 zone, which now serves as the bearish order block.

Conditions for upside recovery:

Washington signals progress on a temporary funding deal.
USD sentiment stabilizes as risk-off demand re-emerges.
Price closes back above the bearish OB to confirm reaccumulation.

Targets:

100.00 - 100.20 - 100.30 (previous high & mid-FVG)

Invalidation:

Failure to reclaim 99.80 or a 4H close below 99.40 confirms the bearish continuation bias.

Bearish Scenario - Downtrend Continuation Toward 98.80

If the bearish order block holds and the dollar remains below 99.80, sellers are likely to extend control.

Conditions for downside continuation:

Shutdown persists with no funding progress.
Risk-on sentiment strengthens globally (stocks recover, commodities rally).
DXY fails to reclaim lost structure.

Targets:

99.30 - 99.10 - 98.80 (October structural lows & liquidity zones)

Invalidation:

Reclaiming 100.00 and closing above 100.20 would neutralize the bearish bias.

Final Thoughts

The dollar’s weakness now mirrors America’s political dysfunction. With data pipelines frozen and policy visibility lost, DXY is trading blindfolded - reacting more to Washington headlines than to economic signals.

The breakdown of the bullish order block and the emergence of a bearish structure confirm what markets are already pricing in: fading confidence and increasing vulnerability. Unless the government resolves the shutdown soon, traders should expect a continuation of range-bound or bearish bias into mid-November.

Until clarity returns, the path of least resistance for the dollar remains down.

Start Trading Live!

Trade forex, indices, gold, and more
Access ACY, MT4, MT5, & Copy Trading Platforms

It’s time to go from theory to execution!

Create an Account. Start Your Live Trading Now!

Check Out My Contents:

Strategies That You Can Use

Looking for step-by-step approaches you can plug straight into the charts? Start here:

Indicators / Tools for Trading

Sharpen your edge with proven tools and frameworks:

How To Trade News

News moves markets fast. Learn how to keep pace with SMC-based playbooks:

Learn How to Trade US Indices

From NASDAQ opens to DAX trends, here’s how to approach indices like a pro:

How to Start Trading Gold

Gold remains one of the most traded assets - here’s how to approach it with confidence:

How to Trade Japanese Candlesticks

Candlesticks are the building blocks of price action. Master the most powerful ones:

How to Start Day Trading

Ready to go intraday? Here’s how to build consistency step by step:

Swing Trading 101

Learn how to navigate yourself in times of turmoil

Markets swing between calm and chaos. Learn to read risk-on vs risk-off like a pro:

Want to learn how to trade like the Smart Money?

Step inside the playbook of institutional traders with SMC concepts explained:

Master the World’s Most Popular Forex Pairs

Forex pairs aren’t created equal - some are stable, some are volatile, others tied to commodities or sessions.

Metals Trading

Stop Hunting 101

If you’ve ever been stopped out right before the market reverses - this is why:

Trading Psychology

Mindset is the deciding factor between growth and blowups. Explore these essentials:

Market Drivers

Risk Management

The real edge in trading isn’t strategy - it’s how you protect your capital:

Suggested Learning Path

If you’re not sure where to start, follow this roadmap:

1. Start with Trading Psychology → Build the mindset first.
2. Move into Risk Management → Learn how to protect capital.
3. Explore Strategies & Tools → Candlesticks, Fibonacci, MAs, Indicators.
4. Apply to Assets → Gold, Indices, Forex sessions.
5. Advance to Smart Money Concepts (SMC) → Learn how institutions trade.
6. Specialize → Stop Hunts, News Trading, Turmoil Navigation.

This way, you’ll grow from foundation → application → mastery, instead of jumping around randomly.

Follow me for more daily market insights!

Jasper Osita - LinkedIn - FXStreet - YouTube

This content may have been written by a third party. ACY makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplies by any third-party. This content is information only, and does not constitute financial, investment or other advice on which you can rely.

Comments

Sort By:

Latest

Loading Comments

Please Sign In or Create Your FREE Account to Comment.

LiquidityFinder

LiquidityFinder was created to take the friction out of the process of sourcing Business to Business (B2B) liquidity; to become the central reference point for liquidity in OTC electronic markets, and the means to access them. Our mission is to provide streamlined modern solutions and share valuable insight and knowledge that benefit our users.

If you would like to contribute to our website or wish to contact us, please click here or you can email us directly at press@liquidityfinder.com.