BitDelta Pro

Americans vote on November 3 for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and a third of the Senate. The presidency is not on the ballot, which means any new Congress will still need the President's signature to turn bills into law. Markets care about the midterms less for the laws that follow and more for what changes in oversight, budgets and the regulatory mood of Washington.

The Federal Reserve held its policy rate at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday, as almost everyone expected. What the market did not fully expect was the vote. Two members of the Committee, Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, dissented in favor of an immediate quarter-point hike. It is the first time since October 1992 that a governor and a regional Fed president have dissented together on the same side.

The Federal Reserve announces its October decision on Wednesday at 2:00pm New York time, 10:00pm in Dubai. A hold at 3.75% to 4.00% is as close to certain as Fed meetings get: futures price it at roughly 91%, and 94 of 100 economists in the latest Reuters poll expect it. The decision itself is not the event. The event is what the Fed says about December.

This is the most crowded week of the quarter. Alphabet and Microsoft report on Wednesday night, a few hours after the Federal Reserve announces its October decision. Amazon follows on Thursday, the same day as the advance read on third quarter GDP and September PCE inflation. The Bank of Canada, the ECB and the Bank of Japan all meet before Friday. And with the US midterms a week away on November 3, election-driven volatility starts to seep into prices from here.

SpaceX went public in June as a rocket company. On October 20 it reported as something else entirely: an AI infrastructure business, financed by a satellite broadband network, with a launch division attached. Rockets generated 12% of third quarter revenue and lost money. The AI segment generated 52% of revenue and consumed 84% of capital expenditure. Starlink generated 85% of operating profit.

Was the recent AI infrastructure sell-off a warning sign, or a market overreaction? As earnings season takes centre stage, investors are looking beyond market volatility to assess the strength of corporate spending, financial resilience and future growth. With major technology, semiconductor and defence companies set to report, this week's results could offer important clues about where market confidence stands. In this Weekly Outlook, we examine the key developments and earnings signals that could shape market sentiment. Read the full article for our latest analysis. BitDelta Securities Financial Services LLC, regulated by the Capital Market Authority under Category 5 (Introduction Only), acts solely as an introducer and does not provide trading, execution, dealing, advisory, portfolio management, or custody services. All trading, execution, and investment-related services are provided by BitDelta Limited, Mauritius, a licensed Investment Dealer. All trading and investments involve risk. The value of investments may fluctuate, and you may receive less than your initial investment.

The AI trade has always been a supply chain story. For the past two years, the narrative has been simple: insatiable demand for compute infrastructure, constrained supply at every choke point, and the companies that own the bottlenecks collect the toll. NVIDIA on GPUs. ASML on lithography. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron on memory. The entire semiconductor complex has traded on scarcity, and scarcity has delivered historic margins.

The cost of capital is becoming a defining force in global markets. But are investors pricing in the full impact? With the Fed's policy outlook under scrutiny, major bank and semiconductor earnings approaching, and key inflation data on the horizon, markets face a critical week. In this week's BitDelta Pro Weekly Outlook, we explore the signals shaping market expectations and the factors that could challenge the prevailing narrative.

September's US inflation report could be a defining moment for the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision. With headline inflation expected to accelerate while core inflation remains steady, the growing divergence raises an important question: Is inflation pressure becoming more widespread, or is energy driving the narrative? Ahead of the October 14 CPI release, BitDelta Pro Research examines the forces shaping inflation expectations, the signals policymakers may prioritise, and what the data could mean for the Fed's next move.

Yields are surging. But is inflation really the reason? This week’s BitDelta Pro Weekly Outlook looks beyond the headline explanation to examine what is actually driving the move in rates, and what that could mean across equities, credit and commodities. We also explore the growing importance of balance-sheet quality, the signals emerging from the AI infrastructure cycle, and what oil and gold may be telling markets about the current macro regime. Read the full Weekly Outlook. BitDelta Securities Financial Services LLC, regulated by the Capital Market Authority under Category 5 (Introduction Only), acts solely as an introducer and does not provide trading, execution, dealing, advisory, portfolio management, or custody services. All trading, execution, and investment-related services are provided by BitDelta Limited, Mauritius, a licensed Investment Dealer. All trading and investments involve risk. The value of investments may fluctuate, and you may receive less than your initial investment.

What if rising yields are not a warning sign, but a reflection of stronger demand? Our latest BitDelta Pro article takes a closer look at that question as Q4 begins, examining how the same macro forces are playing out differently across rates, equities, commodities and gold. The outlook also considers what could challenge the current thesis, and which market signals may matter most in the months ahead. Read the full article for our Q4 perspective. BitDelta Securities Financial Services LLC, regulated by the Capital Market Authority under Category 5 (Introduction Only), acts solely as an introducer and does not provide trading, execution, dealing, advisory, portfolio management, or custody services. All trading, execution, and investment-related services are provided by BitDelta Limited, Mauritius, a licensed Investment Dealer. All trading and investments involve risk. The value of investments may fluctuate, and you may receive less than your initial investment.

The biggest macro events of Q3 may be behind us. Now comes the next question: what happens when the market starts separating companies rather than trading the macro narrative? Following the Fed’s 25-basis-point hike, a flattening yield curve and sharply elevated tanker rates, the investment landscape is shifting. The same forces can create very different pressures across technology, energy, financials, industrials and consumer sectors. In this week’s BitDelta Pro Weekly Outlook, we look beyond the headlines to examine where those differences may start to matter most. Read the full article for our breakdown of the rate path, the inflation signal hiding in shipping costs, and the sector dynamics taking shape. BitDelta Securities Financial Services LLC, regulated by the Capital Market Authority under Category 5 (Introduction Only), acts solely as an introducer and does not provide trading, execution, dealing, advisory, portfolio management, or custody services. All trading, execution, and investment-related services are provided by BitDelta Limited, Mauritius, a licensed Investment Dealer. All trading and investments involve risk. The value of investments may fluctuate, and you may receive less than your initial investment.