EURUSD: Will the market favor the EURO after the data release?

Is the EURUSD Reaction Stronger Than the Data Itself?

The pair is currently at 1.17644. This exchange rate suggests as a commodity-driven which was a verdict of the current tension from the Middle East as oil prices suddenly increasing at a faster rate.

Which economic indicators will affect the EURUSD this week?

German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) April 14 Forecast 1% Previous 1.2%, (MoM) Forecast 0.4%, Previous 0.6%

Eurozone Industrial Production (MoM) April 15 Forecast 0.2% Previous -1.5%
Eurozone Inflation Rate Final (YoY) April 16 Forecast 2.3% Previous 2.4%

Eurozone Balance of Trade April 17 Forecast 11.1B Previous -1.9B

US Producer Price Index (MoM) April 14 Forecast 1.2% Previous 0.3%

US Industrial Production April 16 Forecast 1.2% Previous 0.7%

US PRODUCER PRICE INDEX

IMPACT ON EURUSD

Last March 18 costs rose by 0.7% higher than the expected 0.2%. Forecast for April 14 update is an increase by 1.2%. When the index rises, usually leading to higher prices for consumers which often makes the USD stronger. For the Eurodollar, if the figure is higher than 1.2% forecast, the currency will drop against the USD about 66% of the time. Lately, we see the costs have been accelerated than expected putting the EURUSD downward pressure on. Two factors that we see as culprits are energy costs and tension from the Middle East region affecting economic activities.

US INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

IMPACT ON EURUSD

Last March 16, the Production data rose by 0.2% slightly better than 0.1% forecast.  The US production is strong which makes the USD makes stronger. If the data will provide a better result than expected, the Euro has the 54.55% chance of rising in the first hour. If data misses expect the Euro has a 66.67% chance of increasing. Volatility range is about 0.05% to 0.13% in the hour after the data has been released.

EUROZONE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

IMPACT ON EURUSD

If the result will be above 0.2% it means the currency will be stronger. If below the expected forecast, it means weaker currency. If the report misses the mark, the Euro will decline at 60% of the time within the first hour. Since previous reports were negative results, the -1.5% and -1.4%, the currency is already leaking its strength. If the figure will not come out positive, we expect bearish trend or downward channel.

EURO CPI

IMPACT ON EURUSD

Last March 18, 2026. The price of the currency reacted went up fast in the first 10 minutes after the news came out. Then it was volatile for a while. The price reacted due to the news

If the news is better than we anticipate, it would be the EURUSD goes up 80 percent of the time. If the news is not as good as we thought the EURUSD still goes up. It goes up around 68.75 percent of the time.

Volatility movement is when the news is more than we expect, the price of the currency can swing a lot. This happens in the hour after the news comes out. This is known as beating market expectations or the forecast.

EUROZONE BALANCE OF TRADE

With its recent performance last March 20, 2026, the trade balance had a deficit of -€1.9B. This was much worse, than the expected surplus of €12.8B. The EUR/USD reacted its price and dropped sharply after this release. However, it started to recover within the first hour. Data from the last two years shows that when the trade balance is lower than expected, the Euro loses value against the Dollar 70% of the time. Outlook Investors are now looking toward the next release on April 17, 2026, where a return to an €11.1B surplus is forecasted. While a miss often leads to a predictable drop, beating the forecast results in a 50/50 split between price rises and falls, creating higher market volatility.

How do we see the trend of the EURUSD this week?

The pair broke the 1.16309 level which is near the 32.2% of the Fibonacci Retracement at 1.1675 which could support the currency for the upcoming ECB (European Central Bank) decision.

1st Resistance at 1.17468

2nd Resistance at 1.18261

1st Support price at 1.7277 near the 50% of the Fibonacci Retracement

2nd Support price at 1.6675 (if this price will be broken within the week, it will be unbearable to recover before the ECB announcement)

The pair will be tested with Germany’s economic indicator WPI (Wholesale Price Index) followed by Euro data on Industrial Production, CPI (Consumer Price Index) and Balance of Trade, a probability to make impact on the pair if the tone of the figures to be released will be negative outcome. 

Conclusion & The ACY Edge

Expect volatility as the market favors the US Dollar yet the Euro is in combat to keep its ground. We should note that 1.182 resistance level is breaking above as the Euro will take the lead.

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