GBP/USD Holds Mid-Range as Dollar Tests Resistance Levels: Breakout or Breakdown?
ACY Securities - Jasper Osita
- GBP/USD remains range-bound near 1.35, lacking conviction ahead of key U.S. data.
- DXY holds firm below 99.668 resistance, with upside or rejection likely to set the tone.
- Pound’s 4H FVG support is weakening, and a breakout above 1.356 is needed for fresh highs.
Pound in a Tight Range, Awaiting Catalyst
The British pound remains caught in a tight range on the daily timeframe against the U.S. dollar, with GBP/USD trading just above the 1.35 level as the market awaits further confirmation from U.S. economic data, particularly, the non-farm payroll this Friday.
Greenback Holding Its Ground Between the 99-99.6 Level
Despite recent bullish structure, the pair is showing signs of hesitation as the Dollar approaches a major resistance level at 99.668. The U.S. dollar has recovered sharply from its May lows, bouncing off the 98.700 zone and invalidating a 4-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) between 99.112–98.871. Currently, USD is testing a zone of potential reaction just below 99.668, with a strong impulsive move suggesting demand still favors the greenback.
If this level breaks, GBP/USD could face added pressure. However, if DXY fails to sustain above it, we may see the pound regain upside traction.
Consolidation Within Bullish Structure
On the 4-hour timeframe, GBP/USD has formed a consolidation just above the 1.35 level. Price has pulled back slightly after tagging the upper edge of the FVG near 1.3530, and pound seems to be waiting for a catalyst to drive the next move. The 4-hour bullish FVG still valid but showing signs of deterioration as price is still consolidating at the level. A good FVG should exhibit a strong reaction for upside after it has been tagged which is not currently materialising at the moment. Key Levels and What to Watch
- GBP/USD must stay above 1.3480-1.35 to keep bullish continuation intact
- A confirmed break above 1.3540–1.356 could open the door for a move toward 1.36 and beyond.
- Watch Dollar’s reaction to **99.668-**a break or rejection here will likely dictate whether GBP/USD rallies or rolls over.
With U.S. ADP and ISM data still ahead, the next move in the dollar will be critical.
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