Gold (XAU/USD) Price Action Forecast Update Today: Is the Double Top Pattern Signaling Another Gold Selloff?

Key takeaways:

1. The overall market structure remains in a strong bearish trend on both weekly and daily charts.
2. Price has broken key support and is actively retesting the neckline of a double top pattern.
3. A lower high (LH) with a bearish candlestick confirms sellers are in complete control.
4. The highest-probability trade setup is a bearish continuation targeting $4002.080.

What is the current technical price action on Gold (XAU/USD) telling us?

Weekly chart

Weekly Chart Price Action Analysis

The Gold's weekly chart remains in a clear bearish trend, with the overall market structure continuing to favor further downside. Price has already formed a lower high (LH), reinforcing downtrend potential.

Weekly Chart Price Action Analysis. Bearish Market Structure

Weekly chart observations:

1. The bearish market structure remains intact.
2. Broke below a strong daily support level.
3. Price has formed a lower high (LH), indicating sellers are still in control.
4. A bearish candlestick has developed at the lower high, increasing the potential of another move lower.

Daily chart

Daily Chart Price Action Analysis

The daily timeframe continues to confirm the bearish trend. Price has broken below a key support level, which may now act as potential resistance, while also retesting the neckline of a double top pattern (pattern that indicates a shift from bullish to bearish trend).

Daily Chart Price Action Analysis. Retesting Double Top Pattern (Reversal Pattern)

Daily chart observations:

1. The bearish market structure remains intact.
2. Price has broken below a key support level and is now retesting it as resistance.
3. The 50 EMA continues to provide secondary confirmation of the bearish trend.
4. Price is retesting the neckline of a double top pattern, supporting the potential for further downside.

Want to learn how market trends and valid key levels are identified? Explore our in-depth market analysis and educational blogs below.

1. A Guide to Master a Price Action Strategy That Works in Any Market: Complete Guide on How to Trade with Market Structure + Support & Resistance (Step-by-Step)
2. A Guide to Master Price Action Strategy that Works in Any Market: How to Master the Trend in Trading Any Market
3. A Guide to Master a Strategy that Works in any Market: The Structure of a Market Trend
4. A Guide to Master a Strategy that Works in Any Market: How to Identify Support and Resistance Levels?

What is the best setup on Gold's current price action?

Bullish Scenario (Lower-probability setup)

Daily Chart Price Acton Analysis. Bullish Bias Anticipation

Bullish momentum could occur in Gold if:

1. If price properly break and retest daily resistance level at $4089.303 - $4072.175.
2. Proper breakout and rejections at daily resistance level.
3. Confirm bullish candlestick rejection signals after the retest before considering continuation to the upside.

Trade idea:

Daily Chart Price Acton Analysis. Bullish Take Profit & Stop-loss Placement

1. Target price or profit at $ 4174.500.
2. Stop-loss placed below potential support level (once daily resistance level is broken then it could now potentially act as a support level)
3. Always use proper risk management.

Take note:

This bullish trade idea on Gold (XAU/USD) is considered a low-probability setup since it did not align with the overall higher timeframe trend.

Want to learn more how to confirm a proper candlestick confirmation and find and how to find high-probability setups? Check out these blogs:

1. The Top Japanese Candlestick Patterns to Trade: Mastering Japanese Candlestick Confirmation + Pairing with Price Action Analysis
2. How to Step-by-Step Swing Trade Gold (XAU/USD) with Pure Technical Price Action Analysis?

Bearish scenario (Higher-probability setup)

Daily Chart Price Acton Analysis. Bearish Bias Anticipation

Bearish momentum could occur in Gold if:

1. If price properly retests back at daily resistance level $4089.303 - $4072.175.
2. Proper rejection at daily resistance level.

Trade idea:

Daily Chart Price Acton Analysis. Bearish Take Profit & Stop-loss Placement

1. Target Price or take profit at $4002.080.
2. Stop-loss placed above potential resistance zone.
3. Always use proper risk management.

Take Note:

This bearish trade idea on Gold (XAU/USD) is considered a high-probability setup since it does align with the overall bearish trend of the market.

Want a deeper look at EUR/USD? Join our upcoming live trading session for a detailed price action breakdown and live market analysis:

How to understand the deeper insight behind Gold's price action forecast?

This analysis demonstrates how market structure, support and resistance, and trend confirmation work together to identify high-probability trading opportunities with greater confidence.

This approach is effective because it focuses on the core principles of price action:

1. Trade with the prevailing trend instead of fighting the market.
2. Identify key support and resistance levels where price is likely to react.
3. Wait for candlestick confirmation before entering a trade.
4. Trade the break and retest to improve entry timing and reduce false breakouts.
5. Use the 50 EMA as trend confirmation to align trades with market momentum.
6. Focus only on high-probability price action setups while avoiding low-quality trades.

Final take

Gold (XAU/USD) remains in a strong bearish trend across the higher timeframes. As long as price stays below the key resistance zone and continues to show bearish rejection, the downside remains the higher-probability scenario.

Stay patient, wait for confirmation, and always trade in the direction of the higher time frame trend.

If you want to learn how to identify these high-probability price action setups across Gold, Forex, Crypto, Commodities and Indices, continue following our market analysis and educational guides.

Now you already have a potential trade ideas on Gold this week then,

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Disclaimer:

Trading forex and derivative instruments involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all individuals. Only use funds that you are prepared to lose. It is important to understand how these markets work and the risks involved before trading, and to seek independent financial advice if needed. All market analysis and insights shared are intended for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. July 15, 2026