just now
And there it is. The FOMC happened, and we got our rate cut of 25bps (Current rate 375-400 bps).
Normally, this should be bullish for equities and gold alike, bearish for the dollar. But bear in mind, this was a significant earnings week as well, and these reports included subjects like CapEx (Capital Expense — Business development costs) which were, to say the least, unfavourable.
On top of that, Fed Chair Jerome Powell himself hinted at a hawkish tone for the upcoming December rate cut decision — likely holding before quantitative easing.
Markets are forward looking, and we effectively got hit with five negative forecasts this week, if you include the earnings guidance on CapEx.
For those of you wondering why the markets are falling, this is why. Now the bigger question is, what other impacts should you be aware of? And what comes next?
December Rate Cut Projection Demolished Overnight: 90% to 66%
The next Fed meeting was supposed to be a dovish one; with rate cuts towards 350-375 coming in hot at an expectation of 90% just before the Oct Fed Meeting.
However, expectations changed overnight after Powell’s speech, dropping to a devastating 66%, and removing all expectations of a bigger cut to 325-350 bps. Now, it sits at an expectation of 71% (as of October 31, 2025). This strengthens the dollar in the short term.
DXY (Dollar Index) — Watching 100
DXY has cleared its 100 EMA and is now testing the psychological 100 level, not yet through.
- As annotated: "Once DXY cracks above, further retests become support."
- Right now, price is pressing that threshold but hasn’t confirmed a breakout.
As seen in the charts above, DXY and USDJPY are gaining strength, while EURUSD is rolling over — this clearly reflects recent dollar strength as rate differentials shift.
The ECB also struck a cautious tone in its latest statement, reinforcing divergence from the Fed’s more hawkish-than-expected tone, and adding fuel to dollar strength.
If DXY closes firmly above 100, it will confirm a macro trend shift. That would suppress all risk assets: equities, crypto, even gold. For now, the test is in progress. Watch for rejection vs breakout.
SPX / NDX (Mega Cap Tech Pressure)
Tech remains top-heavy, and this week’s earnings cycle made that fragility clear. Despite headline beats, CapEx surprised to the upside — META, for example, raised its full-year spending outlook by $2B. That added pressure to a market already bracing for tighter liquidity.
A quick note on chart structure: all equity charts in this brief use Bollinger Bands® set to follow the Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
- Blue bands represent the 100 EMA, green bands the 50 EMA.
- They’re tuned to 1 standard deviation to highlight directional trends and detect overextension.
Technically, each of the MAG7 names that reported this week sits near critical levels — especially when viewed on monthly timeframes. The danger zones are clearly defined.
MSFT Daily Chart / Monthly Chart
MSFT confirmed quarterly CapEx hit $11.2B (up ~70% YoY), guiding toward elevated AI infrastructure spend into 2025.
- Bearish monthly candle — closing back in range.
- Descending volume over the course of 4 years confirms a pattern consolidation (Rising Wedge).
- Price at critical support: 50 EMA / Band Low.
META Daily Chart / Monthly Chart
META announced 2025 total expenses of $96–99B (up from $94–99B prior), with $5–6B allocated to Reality Labs and increased AI CapEx.
- Price is tapping into the ascending channel’s support on the monthly timeframe.
- Price will likely be suppressed by 50 EMA bands on the daily timeframe.
- Price found support at the VAL of the entire rally, which needs to hold for the rally to be sustained.
- A downtrend is now official on the daily timeframe, however.
GOOG Daily Chart / Monthly Chart
GOOG posted $11.2B CapEx for the quarter, its highest ever, reaffirming full-year spend >$47B — majority allocated to AI compute buildout.
- Strong earnings and guidance.
- Volume spike invalidates the rising wedge formation.
- Monthly FVG created, aligns with trendline top.
- $208 key support aligns with rally VAH.
AAPL Daily Chart / Monthly Chart
AAPL reported $28.1B in annual CapEx, with guidance implying flat-to-modest growth, focused on silicon and Vision Pro.
- Approaching multiyear pattern top.
- Still supported by 50 EMA Band on the daily timeframe.
- Volume declining — be cautious near $280.
AMZN Daily Chart / Monthly Chart
AMZN guided 2025 CapEx to exceed $125B (vs ~$59B in 2023), with AWS data centers and AI silicon as key drivers; 2026 flagged for further increases.
- Value area (VAH, VAL, POC) acting as support.
- Monthly chart shows fib resistance at $257.
- Volume trendline still descending — pattern is forming.
Implication: All these names are deeply embedded in SPX and NDX weights. If tech slips again, SPX breadth will collapse with it.
10Y Yield (UST10Y)
Back above 4.00%. That’s the pressure point for all long-duration assets.
- Tech multiples contract.
- Growth stocks lose steam.
- Credit spreads haven’t blown out yet — but watch for cracks if this continues.
What to Watch Next:
- December FOMC (Rate cut probability dropped from 90% → 66%).
- DXY: If it holds >100, liquidity conditions tighten into year-end.
- META: If price closes below $652, structure breaks further.
- SPX: If mega-cap leadership fails, breadth unwinds fast.
- MSFT: Watch $506–$516. If it breaks, risk opens toward $497–$475.
- AAPL: $276–$280 near-term resistance. If rejected, watch band low near $248.
Summary:
- ✅ Rate cut is a go.
- CapEx: Heavy forward guidance from major tech (META, AMZN) triggered repricing; spending optimism is now a risk factor.
- Market reaction is bearish, due to forward guidance and CapEx.
- Dollar testing 100, yields up, gold flat, tech softening, crypto capped.
Stay nimble. This isn’t the rally continuation many expected. We’re still very much in a trend-sensitive macro tape. Major players are pressing pause. Be alert for whiplash or follow-through — either can happen from here.
