Is it Time to Buy the Pullback on USDJPY!?
ACY Securities - Luca Santos
The USD/JPY remains a focal pair in forex, particularly given the recent shifts in U.S. Treasury yields and ongoing economic data releases. The connection between U.S. yields and the Japanese yen is crucial for forex traders, and the latest developments offer valuable insights into the potential direction of this pair.
I’ve done a blog talking about this treasury yields and the ongoing economic data releases, where you can access HERE
Influence of U.S. Treasury Yields on Forex Trading
U.S. Treasury yields, especially those of the 2-year note, play a pivotal role in shaping the USD/JPY pair. Typically, when yields rise, the U.S. dollar appreciates against the yen, whereas a decline in yields results in a weaker dollar. Recently, the yield on the 2-year Treasury note dipped below the 3.90% mark, which has had notable consequences for USD/JPY.
Non-Farm Payrolls Revision Impact
The downward revision of non-farm payrolls (NFP) estimates has been a key factor in the recent drop in yields. The revision indicated a loss of 818,000 jobs for the 12 months leading up to March 2024, far exceeding expectations. This marked the most significant downward revision since 2009, a period characterized by economic challenges.
This substantial revision has bolstered the expectation that the Federal Reserve may reduce interest rates at its upcoming FOMC meeting on September 18th. Anticipation of these rate cuts has further pressured U.S. yields downward, pushing USD/JPY below the 145 level, a first since early August when the market was still reacting to the unwinding of yen carry trades.
FOMC Minutes and Signals for Easing
The release of the July FOMC meeting minutes (You can access the full breakdown HERE) added to the downward pressure on USD/JPY. The minutes revealed a strong preference among Fed members for easing monetary policy, with the "vast majority" supporting rate cuts should economic conditions continue to deteriorate. Some members also expressed concerns about a weakening labour market, which could prompt even more aggressive easing measures.
This dovish outlook from the Fed has intensified market expectations of rate cuts, making it challenging for USD/JPY to maintain any significant rallies.
The recent movements in USD/JPY align with expectations, reflecting a heightened sensitivity to downside risks. This may be due to a renewed interest among traders in buying the yen during dips, particularly after the steep decline observed in July and early August.
There remains a significant number of structural yen short positions that are at risk of appreciation. As these positions are increasingly hedged, combined with strong expectations for Fed rate cuts, USD/JPY may continue to face difficulties in sustaining rallies.
Key Upcoming Events: Powell and Ueda
Looking forward, attention will turn to two significant events: a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and an appearance by Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda before the Diet.
Governor Ueda is expected to discuss potential adjustments to the BoJ's policy stance considering recent market volatility. However, he may also emphasize caution, like recent remarks by Deputy Governor Uchida. If Ueda emphasizes caution to reassure the Diet, the yen could temporarily weaken. However, any depreciation of the yen is likely to be limited, with Powell's speech expected later in the day.
In conclusion, the interaction between U.S. Treasury yields and Fed rate expectations continues to exert downward pressure on USD/JPY. If these factors remain in play, any attempts at a sustained rally in the pair are likely to encounter significant resistance. Traders should closely monitor upcoming economic data and central bank communications, as these will be crucial in determining the next movements in USD/JPY.
This content may have been written by a third party. ACY makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplies by any third-party. This content is information only, and does not constitute financial, investment or other advice on which you can rely.
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