NASDAQ 100 Price Action Forecast Update Today: Did the Head and Shoulders Pattern Trigger the Massive NAS100 Sell-Off?

Key takeaways

In the previous analysis, "NASDAQ 100 Price Action Forecast Today: Will the Head and Shoulders Pattern Trigger a Massive NAS100 Sell-Off?", I highlighted that NAS100 was likely to continue lower if the 29,090–29,410 resistance zone and the Head and Shoulders neckline held as resistance.

That is exactly what happened.

Price respected the key resistance zone, sellers regained control, and the bearish setup unfolded as anticipated, reinforcing the importance of waiting for confirmation rather than predicting the market.

How did the previous NAS100 price action signal the move?

The previous forecast identified several technical factors pointing to further downside:

1. A confirmed bearish market structure.
2. A completed Head and Shoulders reversal pattern.
3. A break-and-retest setup at a major resistance zone.
4. Bearish price action confirming seller dominance.

Instead of chasing the market, the analysis focused on letting price come into a high-probability area before looking for confirmation.

For the complete technical breakdown, including the weekly and daily chart analysis, key resistance levels, and trade planning, read the previous forecast:

1. NASDAQ 100 Price Action Forecast Today: Will the Head and Shoulders Pattern Trigger a Massive NAS100 Sell-Off?

Forecast recap: What was anticipated on NAS100 before the move?

Before the NAS100 sell-off began, two possible scenarios were outlined based on market structure and price action.

Watch the previous live trading session to see how the NAS100 trade setup was identified before the move happened.

Jump to 11:00 –18:05 for a detailed NASDQ 100 (NAS100) price action breakdown, including market structure, key resistance, trade confirmation, and the analysis behind the setup.

NAS100 price action forecast: What are the two key scenarios before the move?

1. Bullish scenario (Lower-probability setup)

Daily Chart Price Action Analysis. Anticipated Bullish Setup

A bullish continuation was only expected if buyers could prove they had regained control.

Bullish confirmation checklist:

1. NAS100 breaks and successfully retests the 29,083.7–29,411.6 resistance level.
2. Daily resistance level is reclaimed.
3. A strong bullish candlestick confirms the breakout.

Anticipated bullish trade idea:

1. Take profit: 29,880
2. Stop-loss: Below the newly established support after the breakout.
3. Risk management: Use proper position sizing.

Why was the NAS100 bullish setup considered a low-probability trade?

This setup went against the dominant bearish trend on the higher timeframes, making it low-probability setup and the less favorable scenario.

Outcome:

Daily Chart Price Action Analysis. Bullish Bias Setup Invalidated

Daily Chart Price Action Analysis. Price Failed to Break Above Resistance Level

Following the trading plan helped avoid an unnecessary long position.

1. ✅ No confirmed breakout above resistance.
2. ✅ No valid bullish confirmation formed.
3. ✅ The bullish setup was invalidated.
4. ✅ Potential losses were avoided.

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Want to improve your price action trading?

Learn how to identify high-probability trading opportunities with these guides:

1. A Guide to Master a Price Action Strategy That Works in Any Market: Complete Guide on How to Trade with Market Structure + Support & Resistance (Step-by-Step)
2. A Guide to Master a Strategy that Works in Any Market: How to Identify Support and Resistance Levels?
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6. Reversal Chart Patterns: The Complete Guide to Spotting Bullish and Bearish Trend Reversal Pattern in Trading
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2. Bearish scenario (Higher-probability setup)

Daily Chart Price Action Analysis. Anticipated Bearish Setup

The preferred setup was to look for selling opportunities in line with the higher-timeframe trend.

Bearish confirmation checklist:

1. Price retests the 29,090–29,410 resistance level.
2. Properly rejects daily resistance level.
3. A strong bearish rejection candlestick confirms sellers are back in control.

Anticipated bearish trade idea:

1. Target 1: 28,445
2. Target 2: 25,860 (If price breaks below Target 1, bearish momentum may continue)
3. Stop-loss: Above the daily resistance zone.
4. Risk management: Use proper position sizing.

Why was the NAS100 bearish setup considered a higher-probability trade?

This bearish trade idea on NAS100 was considered a higher-probability setup because it aligned with the dominant bearish trend on both the weekly and daily timeframes.

Outcome:

Daily Chart Price Action Analysis. Bullish Bias Setup Validated

Daily Chart Price Action Analysis. Price Respected Key Level and Price Action Confluences

1. ✅ Resistance retest confirmed.
2. ✅ Head and Shoulders neckline respected.
3. ✅ Bearish rejection formed.
4. ✅ Sellers regained control.
5. ✅ Bearish continuation followed the anticipated technical roadmap.

How did this NAS100 setup successfully executed?

Trade outcome: NAS100 sell-off successfully anticipated

The market respected the technical levels identified before the move, demonstrating the value of combining multiple price action concepts instead of relying on a single indicator.

The setup was based on the pure technical confluence of:

1. ✅ Price action
2. ✅ Market structure
3. ✅ Support and resistance
4. ✅ Reversal pattern
5. ✅ Break-and-retest setup
6. ✅ Candlestick confirmation
7. ✅ 50 EMA trend confirmation

By waiting for confirmation, traders were able to avoid low-probability trades and focus on the setup that aligned with the overall market trend.

Final take

This NASDAQ 100 (NAS100) price action forecast shows how combining market structure, support and resistance, Head and Shoulders patterns, break-and-retest setups, and candlestick confirmation can help identify high-probability trading opportunities.

This setup shows that technical analysis alone was sufficient to anticipate the bearish move on NAS100, without relying on news, macroeconomic events, or fundamental analysis.

Always remember:

By focusing on high-quality setups instead of reacting emotionally, traders can make more consistent and objective trading decisions over the long term.

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FAQs

Why was the bearish setup higher probability?

Because it aligned with the overall weekly and daily bearish trend.

Why was the bullish setup invalidated?

Price failed to break and hold above the key resistance zone.

What confirmed the bearish trade?

A resistance retest, bearish rejection candlestick, and Head and Shoulders neckline rejection.

Was this analysis based on news?

No. The setup was based purely on technical price action analysis.

What trading confluences were used?

Market structure, support and resistance, Head and Shoulders pattern, break-and-retest, candlestick confirmation, and the 50 EMA.

What is the key lesson from this analysis?

Wait for confirmation and trade with the prevailing trend instead of predicting the market.

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Trading forex and derivative instruments involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all individuals. Only use funds that you are prepared to lose. It is important to understand how these markets work and the risks involved before trading, and to seek independent financial advice if needed. All market analysis and insights shared are intended for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. July 23, 2026