ACY Securities

In the wake of recent market developments, my attention has been drawn to the overnight weakening of the US dollar, a phenomenon that precipitated a decline in the dollar index, finding support just above 103.60 from the 200-day moving average.

The EUR/USD witnessed a rollercoaster ride between 1.0825 and 1.0965 over the past week. Last week's trading began with swift EUR/USD price jumps, triggered by influential US consumer price data.

In the month of October, Canada witnessed a further moderation in annual inflation, with the pace standing at 3.1%, aligning with consensus expectations. This marked a significant deceleration from the previous month's 3.8%, primarily attributed to a decline in gasoline prices.

The week commenced with the USD/JPY opening at 151.47. Early in the Tokyo session on November 13, the yen saw selling activity without any significant news catalyst. Despite appearing somewhat top-heavy above the end-October high of 151.74, the USD/JPY climbed to 151.92.

The Euro (EUR/USD) retreated to 1.0910 (1.0945) after the Fed held interest rates at 22-year highs. FOMC meeting minutes revealed that policymakers favored a cautious approach to raising interest rates ahead.

The USD sell-off continues this morning, unusually without the helping hand of a “risk on” backdrop. Broadly speaking, equity markets are flat this morning, held back by company-specific concerns rather than a change in macroeconomic conditions.

Revisiting the Depth of Market Movements. The response to last week's blend of softer US inflation figures and indications of a slowdown in consumer spending resembles the market's reaction following the initial decline in inflation during the summer.

The US Dollar plummeted against the Yen (USD/JPY), breaking down through the 150. level to 149.50 as sentiment shifted against the Greenback. Last week’s soft inflation data and weaker economic activity (Industrial Output and Manufacturing Production) weighed on the Dollar.

Globally, I expect real GDP growth of 2.6% yoy in 2024, reflecting tailwinds from strong real household income growth, a smaller drag from monetary and fiscal tightening, a recovery in manufacturing activity, and an increased willingness of central banks to deliver insurance cuts if necessary.

The US dollar faced additional weakening in the recent session, spurred by the disclosure of less favourable US economic data. This depreciation, however, exhibited a more confined impact, primarily targeting the euro and yen, as opposed to a broader spectrum of major currencies.

A fall in US Inflation numbers earlier this week failed to push the US currency lower after Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said that the lower levels of inflation were not enough to convince her that the central bank had won its battle against higher prices.

China's October domestic activity growth data exhibited a mixed picture, featuring notable increases in industrial production (IP) and retail sales growth, surpassing market expectations. However, year-to-date (YTD) fixed asset investment (FAI) growth unexpectedly decelerated.