EUR/AUD Price Action Forecast Update: EUR/AUD Hits 1.60500 Target After Bearish Rejection at Resistance

In my previous EUR/AUD price action forecast, I identified 1.61715–1.62300 as the key resistance zone for a potential bearish setup, targeting 1.60500.

EUR/AUD has now reached the 1.60500 target, completing the anticipated bearish move from resistance.

The outlook combined bearish weekly and daily market structure, price trading below the 50 EMA, and a weekly head-and-shoulders neckline retest.

The original entry plan required a retest of resistance followed by bearish confirmation.

Key Takeaways

1. Original resistance zone: 1.61715–1.62300.
2. Target reached: 1.60500.
3. Weekly and daily technical factors supported the bearish outlook.
4. The entry plan required bearish rejection and downside follow-through.
5. The alternative recovery scenario required a confirmed break above 1.62300 and a successful support retest.

What Supported the EUR/AUD Bearish Price Action Forecast?

The original EUR/AUD price forecast focused on former support becoming resistance.

After price broke below weekly and daily support, the 1.61715–1.62300 zone became the area to assess whether sellers could defend a retest.

The setup combined bearish market structure with resistance confluence and a weekly chart pattern.

Weekly Setup Factors: Why Was 1.61715–1.62300 Important?

Weekly Timeframe Price Action Analysis. Price retesting Weekly and Daily Resistance Level

The weekly chart showed a bearish trend, with price below the weekly 50 EMA. The retest provided an area to watch for renewed selling pressure in line with that trend.

Weekly Timeframe Price Action Analysis. Price Retesting Head and Shoulder Neckline

The head-and-shoulders neckline retest added another technical factor around the resistance area.

The original weekly analysis highlighted:

1. Bearish market structure.
2. A break below weekly and daily support.
3. Former support being retested as resistance.
4. Price below the weekly 50 EMA.
5. Rejection around the weekly head-and-shoulders neckline.

Daily Setup Factors: What Bearish Confirmation Was Required?

Daily Timeframe Price Action Analysis. Bearish Bias Anticipation

The daily chart supported the weekly bearish outlook. Price was below both 1.61715–1.62300 resistance and the daily 50 EMA.

Touching resistance alone was insufficient. The plan required bearish candlestick rejection followed by downside follow-through.

The planned approach was straightforward:

Retest resistance → Bearish rejection → Downside confirmation → Consider an entry

EUR/AUD Trade Recap: 1.60500 Target Reached

Daily Timeframe Price Action Analysis. Bearish Take-profit and Stop-loss placement

The original bearish scenario outlined:

1. Resistance: 1.61715–1.62300.
2. Target: 1.60500.
3. Confirmation: Bearish rejection from resistance followed by downside continuation.
4. Invalidation: A sustained reclaim of the zone followed by a successful support retest.

Outcome: EUR/AUD Reached the Anticipated Target at 1.60500

Daily Timeframe Price Action Analysis. Bearish Anticipation Played Out

The bearish setup has now played out. EUR/AUD moved lower from the resistance area and reached 1.60500, completing the original downside objective.

This completes the forecast objective. Individual trade results depend on entry, execution, stop placement, and risk management.

What About the Bullish Scenario?

Daily Timeframe Price Action Analysis. Bullish Bias Anticipation

The alternative scenario required a break above 1.62300, followed by a successful retest of 1.61715–1.62300 as support and bullish rejection, targeting 1.63000.

The bullish setup did not confirm, so no buy entry was triggered under the original plan. Price instead followed the bearish scenario and reached 1.60500.

Waiting for the required confirmation helped avoid an unnecessary losing buy trade. A brief move above resistance alone would not have been enough to justify an entry.

The lesson: Having a scenario does not mean taking a trade. Wait for price action to confirm it first then react to it.

Final Take

EUR/AUD reached the anticipated 1.60500 target after bearish rejection from the 1.61715–1.62300 resistance zone.

Weekly and daily bearish structure, price below the 50 EMA, and the head-and-shoulders neckline retest supported the setup. The original entry plan required bearish confirmation at resistance.

Reaching the target completes this forecast objective. Any further downside would require fresh price action confirmation and a new assessment of market structure.

The lesson: Identify the level, wait for confirmation, and follow the plan.

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Start Your Live Trading Journey

Move from learning price action to applying it in the real market.

Trade:

1. Forex
2. Gold
3. Indices
4. Crypto
5. Commodities

Access trading platforms and tools including ACY, MT4, MT5, and Copy Trading.

Create an Account and Start Live Trading

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Beginner’s Path

Build your trading foundation with these step-by-step guides:

1. Beginner Trading Steps: 4 Rules to Follow Before You Trade
2. Beginner Trading Steps: Mistakes That Can Slow Down Your Progress—and How to Avoid Them
3. The 1% Risk Rule: Common Trading Mistakes to Avoid
4. Habits of Successful Traders: 4 Ways to Build Discipline in Trading
5. Beginner Trading Guide: A Step-by-Step Roadmap to Smarter Trading
6. A Beginner’s Guide to Technical Trading Systems for Gold, Forex, Crypto, Commodities and Indices
7. Trading Performance: 6 Skills Every Consistent Trader Must Master
8. Trading Preparation Checklist: 7 Steps Before You Trade

Mastering Price Action Trading

Learn to read price action and assess trading setups at key levels:

1. Why Price Action Trading Works: A Simple Framework for Any Market
2. Mastering Price Action at Key Levels: How to Identify and Trade High-Probability Setups

Identifying Market Trends and Structure

Learn to recognize bullish, bearish and sideways markets:

1. How to Master Market Trends with a Price Action Strategy
2. Understanding Market Structure: The Structure of a Market Trend
3. How to Trade Market Structure with Support and Resistance: A Step-by-Step Guide

Identifying Support and Resistance

Learn to mark key levels and interpret price reactions:

1. How to Identify Support and Resistance Levels
2. Combining Market Structure with Support and Resistance
3. XAUUSD Support and Resistance: How to Mark Key Gold Levels

Mastering Break and Retest Patterns

Understand recurring price patterns, retests and false breakouts:

1. Break and Retest: A Simple, Repetitive Price Action Pattern
2. Break and Retest: How to Trade Repetitive Market Patterns
3. EUR/JPY Price Action Case Study: Retesting a Reversal Pattern
4. False Breakouts: How to Avoid Breakout Traps and Trade Smarter

Candlestick Confirmation and Patterns

Learn to combine candlestick signals with price action analysis:

1. Top Japanese Candlestick Patterns: Combining Candlestick Confirmation with Price Action
2. How to Use the Engulfing Candlestick as an Entry Signal
3. Bullish and Bearish Pin Bars: A Guide to Reversal Candlestick Confirmations

Trading Trend Reversal Patterns

Learn to recognize patterns that may signal a change in market direction:

1. Reversal Chart Patterns: A Complete Guide to Bullish and Bearish Trend Reversals

Mastering the 50 EMA

Explore how to combine the exponential moving average with price action:

1. How to Trade Using the EMA Indicator with Price Action Analysis

Swing Trading 101

Bring your technical analysis skills together through a gold swing trading guide:

1. How to Swing Trade Gold (XAU/USD) with Technical Price Action Analysis: Step by Step

How to Start Trading Gold

1. How to Swing Trade Gold (XAU/USD) with Technical Price Action Analysis: Step by Step
2. XAUUSD Support and Resistance: How to Mark Key Gold Levels
3. XAUUSD Support and Resistance: How to Mark Gold Levels on the Weekly Chart?

Risk Management and Position Sizing

Learn how risk management and position sizing fit into your trading plan:

1. Risk Management in Trading: The 20% That Determines Long-Term Trading Success
2. Master Position Sizing in Trading: 5 Rules to Protect Your Capital and Grow Your Account Consistently
3. The 1% Risk Rule: Common Trading Mistakes to Avoid

Take-Profit Targets

Learn how to plan take-profit targets using market structure and risk-reward:

1. Take-Profit Order (TP): A Beginner’s Guide to Better TP Targets

Mastering the Trader’s Mindset

Develop discipline, emotional awareness and a more consistent trading process:

1. Trading Mindset: Why Trading Exposes Who You Really Are
2. Consistency in Trading: Why Discipline Beats Intelligence
3. Overtrading: Why More Trades Do Not Mean More Profits
4. Trading Wick Outs: How to Handle Fake Outs and Market Losses
5. Trading Psychology: The Truth About Trading Success
6. Deliberate Practice in Trading: Why Intentional Practice Beats More Screen Time
7. Trading Psychology: Why Most Traders Struggle with Consistency—and How to Fix It
8. The Three Pillars of Profitable Trading: Risk Management, Strategy and Psychology
9. The Mental Game of Trading: Overcoming Hesitation and Executing with Confidence
10. Emotional Neutrality in Trading: Building Consistency and Discipline
11. How to Become an Anti-Fragile Trader: Turn Losses, Drawdowns and Pressure into Strength
12. Building an Anti-Fragile Trading Mindset: Build Discipline and Manage Risk
13. Trading Psychology: Build Confidence With a Trading Memory Bank

Professional Trader’s Mindset Masterclass

Explore the psychological habits behind a disciplined trading approach:

1. Trading Psychology: What Sets the Profitable Trader’s Mindset Apart
2. The Professional Trader’s Mindset: 6 Psychological Traits Every Consistently Profitable Trader Needs

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Beginner Trading Roadmap

Not sure where to begin? Here’s a simple roadmap to guide you:

1. Common beginner Traders Mistakes → avoid overtrading, revenge trading, and chasing the market.
2. Master Traders Psychology → build discipline, patience, and emotional control
3. Mastering Risk Management → learn how to have a sustainable trading.
4. Master Simple Technical strategies & Indicators → especially price action, key levels, and market structure.
5. Applying to Real Market → forex, crypto and indices.

By building step by step; from basics → real trading → mastering the craft, you’ll gain clarity, confidence, and steady progress without ever feeling overwhelmed.

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Follow for More Market Analysis

Follow Ruffy Grant B. Capacio for Gold analysis, Forex trading ideas, price action education, trading psychology, and market insights: LinkedIn

ACY Securities: Join the Discord Server

Disclaimer:

Trading Forex, Gold, CFDs, cryptocurrencies, commodities, indices, and other leveraged financial instruments involves a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors or traders. Market conditions can change rapidly, and leveraged trading can result in losses that occur quickly.

Before trading, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk tolerance. Only trade with capital you can afford to lose and seek independent financial or professional advice where appropriate.

All market analysis, price forecasts, technical commentary, trading scenarios, educational materials, and opinions presented in this content are provided solely for general informational and educational purposes. They do not constitute financial advice, investment advice, a recommendation, solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Past performance and historical price movements are not reliable indicators of future results. Any price levels, targets, scenarios, or market outlooks discussed should be viewed as analysis rather than guarantees of future market performance. September 24, 2026