BTC/USD Price Action Forecast Update Today: Did the $66,070–$65,470 Resistance Trigger Bitcoin's Next Move?

In the previous analysis, "BTC/USD Price Action Forecast Today: Is the $66,070–$65,470 Resistance the Key to Bitcoin's Next Move?", I highlighted that Bitcoin was approaching a major technical decision point. While the weekly trend remained bearish, the daily chart was consolidating, with two possible scenarios based on how price reacted at key support and resistance levels.

That is exactly what happened.

Bitcoin BTC/USD failed to break above the $65,470–$66,070 resistance level, allowing sellers to remain in control. Rather than predicting the market, the analysis focused on waiting for price confirmation before executing a trade.

Key takeaways:

1. Bitcoin failed to break above the $66,070–$65,470 resistance level.
2. Sellers held control, validating a bearish break-and-retest setup.
3. A stop-loss wicked out or liquidity sweep occurred right before the price dropped.
4. Waiting for daily confirmation prevented an unnecessary losing long position.

How did the previous BTC/USD price action signal the move?

The previous forecast identified several technical factors that favored further downside:

1. Bearish weekly market structure.
2. Rejection from a major weekly and daily resistance level.
3. 50 EMA acting as dynamic resistance.
4. Lower high (LH) maintaining bearish momentum.
5. Daily consolidation awaiting confirmation.
6. High-probability break-and-retest setup.
7. A completed retest of the neckline of Head and Shoulders reversal pattern.

Instead of chasing price, the analysis emphasized waiting for confirmation before entering the trade.

For the complete technical breakdown, including the weekly and daily chart analysis, major support and resistance levels, and the original trade plan, read the previous forecast:

1. BTC/USD Price Action Forecast Today: Is the $66,070–$65,470 Resistance the Key to Bitcoin's Next Move?

Forecast recap: What was anticipated on BTC/USD before the move?

Before Bitcoin BTC/USD made its next directional move, two possible scenarios were outlined based on market structure and price action.

Watch the previous live trading session to see how the BTC/USD setup was identified before the move happened:

Jump to 12:00 –16:05 for a detailed BTC/USD price action breakdown, including market structure, key resistance, trade confirmation, and the analysis behind the setup.

BTC/USD price action forecast: What were the two key scenarios?

1. Bullish scenario (Lower-probability setup)

Daily Chart Price Action Analysis. Anticipated Bullish Setup

A bullish continuation was only expected if buyers could prove they had regained control of the higher-timeframe resistance.

Bullish confirmation checklist:

1. BTC/USD breaks and successfully retests the $65,470–$66,070 weekly resistance level.
2. Proper breakout of weekly resistance level.
3. Breakout of the consolidation level.
4. Confirm bullish candlestick rejections after the retest before considering continuation to the upside.

Anticipated bullish trade idea:

1. Take profit: $68,300
2. Stop-loss: Below the newly established support after the breakout.
3. Risk management: Use proper position sizing.

Why was the BTC/USD bullish setup considered a low-probability trade?

This setup went against the dominant bearish trend visible on the weekly timeframe, making it the lower-probability scenario.

Outcome:

Daily Chart Price Action Analysis. Bullish Bias Setup Invalidated

Daily Chart Price Action Analysis. Price Failed to Break Above Weekly Resistance

Following the trading plan helped traders avoid an unnecessary long position.

1. ✅ No confirmed breakout above $65,470–$66,070 resistance.
2. ✅ No valid bullish confirmation formed.
3. ✅ Bullish setup invalidated.
4. ✅ Potential losses avoided.

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Want to improve your price action trading?

Learn how to identify high-probability trading opportunities with these guides:

1. A Guide to Master a Price Action Strategy That Works in Any Market: Complete Guide on How to Trade with Market Structure + Support & Resistance (Step-by-Step)
2. A Guide to Master a Strategy that Works in Any Market: How to Identify Support and Resistance Levels?
3. The Top Japanese Candlestick Patterns to Trade: Mastering Japanese Candlestick Confirmation + Pairing with Price Action Analysis
4. The Top Japanese Candlestick Patterns to Trade: How to Use the Engulfing Candlestick as a High-Probability Entry Signal
5. Master Exponential Moving Average: How to Trade using EMA Indicator with Price Action Analysis?
6. Reversal Chart Patterns: The Complete Guide to Spotting Bullish and Bearish Trend Reversal Pattern in Trading
7. How to Step-by-Step Swing Trade with Pure Technical Price Action Analysis?

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2. Bearish scenario (Higher-probability setup)

Daily Chart Price Action Analysis. Anticipated Bearish Setup

The preferred trading plan was to look for selling opportunities that aligned with the dominant bearish trend.

Bearish confirmation checklist:

1. BTC/USD breaks and successfully retests the $64,060–$63,440 support zone.
2. Previous support turns into new resistance.
3. A strong bearish rejection candlestick confirms sellers are back in control.

Anticipated bearish trade idea:

1. Target: $62,100
2. Stop-loss: Above the new resistance zone.
3. Risk management: Use proper position sizing.
4. Additional Confirmation: Potential validation of the Head and Shoulders reversal

pattern.

Why was the BTC/USD bearish setup considered a higher-probability trade?

This bearish setup aligned with the dominant bearish trend on the weekly timeframe while also following the break-and-retest confirmation on the daily chart, making it the higher-probability trade.

Outcome:

Daily Chart Price Action Analysis. Bearish Bias Setup Validated but Wicked out before the Move Happened

Daily Chart Price Action Analysis. Bullish Bias Setup Validated

1. ✅ Support successfully broken.
2. ✅ Break-and-retest confirmed.
3. ✅ Bearish rejection candlestick formed.
4. ✅ Sellers regained control.
5. ✅ Bearish continuation followed the anticipated technical roadmap toward the downside.
6. ✅ Stop loss was wicked out before Bitcoin continued to reach the target price.

How was this BTC/USD setup successfully executed?

Trade outcome: The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) bearish continuation was correctly anticipated, but the stop loss was swept out by a liquidity wick before price reached the target

Bitcoin respected the technical levels identified before the move, reinforcing the value of waiting for confirmation rather than predicting price direction.

The setup was based entirely on the confluence of:

1. ✅ Price action
2. ✅ Market structure
3. ✅ Support and resistance
4. ✅ Reversal pattern
5. ✅ Break-and-retest setup
6. ✅ Candlestick confirmation
7. ✅ 50 EMA trend confirmation
8. ✅ Proper risk management

Although the stop loss was triggered by a temporary liquidity sweep, the overall bearish analysis remained valid, and Bitcoin ultimately reached the projected target.

Final take

This BTC/USD Price Action Forecast Update demonstrates how combining price action, market structure, support and resistance, break-and-retest setups, candlestick confirmation, and the 50 EMA can help traders identify high-probability opportunities.

It also reinforces one of the most important lessons in trading: confirmation comes before execution!

Always remember:

While no strategy can eliminate stop-loss wicks or liquidity sweeps, consistently following a disciplined trading plan and proper risk management provides the best chance of long-term success.

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FAQs

Was the BTC/USD forecast accurate?

Yes. The forecast correctly identified the bearish trend, and Bitcoin reached the projected downside target after confirming the break-and-retest setup.

Why was the stop loss hit before the target?

Bitcoin experienced a liquidity sweep that briefly wicked out the stop loss before continuing lower to the target. This is common in volatile markets.

Why was the bearish BTC/USD setup higher probability?

The setup aligned with the weekly bearish trend and was confirmed by market structure, support and resistance, a break-and-retest, bearish candlestick confirmation, and the 50 EMA.

Why did the bullish BTC/USD setup fail?

Bitcoin failed to break and hold above the $65,470–$66,070 resistance zone, so no valid bullish confirmation was formed.

What trading strategy was used?

The analysis used a price action trading strategy based on market structure, support and resistance, break-and-retest confirmation, candlestick patterns, the 50 EMA, and disciplined risk management.

What is the key lesson from this Bitcoin trade?

Wait for price confirmation, not predictions. High-probability BTC/USD setups can still experience stop-loss wicks before reaching their target, making risk management essential.

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Trading forex and derivative instruments involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all individuals. Only use funds that you are prepared to lose. It is important to understand how these markets work and the risks involved before trading, and to seek independent financial advice if needed. All market analysis and insights shared are intended for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. August 3, 2026.